The JCPOA: A Eulogy

[Kamaji]

The JCPOA: A Eulogy

The United States never retreats on anything. That might be a real danger in the current geopolitical struggle.

By David C. Hendrickson
March 21, 2022

William Safire, the famed New York Times columnist who thought suicidal nationalism was a great idea for the Ukrainians back in 1991, used to write columns in which he peered into the souls of various leaders to see how the world looked from their point of view. Safire’s oeuvre of columns was a great illustration of how infinite talent, when hitched to bad ideas, makes plodding types seem like geniuses—though Bill was always fun and entertaining, unlike fellow columnist Abe Rosenthal, who wrote about America’s adversaries like he’d just emerged from the State of Nature (Hobbes’s, not Rousseau’s).

Peering into the souls of the parties to the JCPOA (Joint Comprehensive Plan of Action) is, then, a good idea, but one especially difficult to prosecute today. For one thing, the onset of the Total Economic War Against Russia (TEWAR) must be seen as altering the calculations of the parties in central ways, though exactly how is a bit obscure. For another, we don’t know basic things about the terms of the putative agreement, the one that is basically all wrapped up. How many sanctions on the Iranians would be lifted? How much ready cash would they get?  Not clear.

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Beyond the discrete issues there is the fact that the participants to the deal are sniping at one another in vitriolic terms. Washington seems set on drawing up war crimes charges against the Russian leadership; the Russians say that the Americans are straight out liars. Both sides seem much more intent on assigning responsibility for the collapse of the deal than actually reaching a deal.

The conclusion seems unavoidable that the JCPOA is doomed. Perhaps it is not quite dead, but it is near death. It may be too early to conduct an autopsy of the cause of death, with so much still unknown, but a few observations on that score are offered here.  We will conclude with a eulogy.

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While President Biden has had conversations with King Salman of Saudi Arabia, he has not since his inauguration had a single conversation with Saudi Crown Prince Mohammed bin Salman. The background story is that MBS is not returning Biden’s calls and doesn’t care what he thinks. Biden denounced the Crown Prince as a murderous thug during the 2020 campaign, while adding that the Saudi government has “very little social redeeming value.” His administration made clear that relations with Saudi Arabia had been recalibrated as of January 20, 2021, which downgraded MBS’s social credit score to junk. So a personal chat would be awkward.

Biden’s conversations with the king, too, are unlikely to have been especially productive, as the custodian of the Two Holy Mosques has been beset by Alzheimer’s for over five years. The meaningful part of this embarrassing situation is that the actual ruler of Saudi Arabia, the crown prince, would much prefer a conversation with Putin than with Biden. America’s influence with the World’s Oil Despots isn’t what it used to be.

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Source:  https://www.theamericanconservative.com/articles/the-jcpoa-a-eulogy/

[Kamaji]

Biden’s conversations with the king, too, are unlikely to have been especially productive, as the custodian of the Two Holy Mosques has been beset by Alzheimer’s for over five years.

I dunno, a dementia patient chatting with an Alzheimer's patient.  Seems like they'd get along swimmingly.