The Best Negotiated Putin-Ukraine Agreement I Can Come Up With by Dov Fischer

[mystery-ak]

The Best Negotiated Putin-Ukraine Agreement I Can Come Up With
Putin will have to be seen as the winner, even if Ukraine wins by surviving.
by Dov Fischer
March 20, 2022, 10:26 PM


I begin with the premise that Putin is not a madman, neither insane nor crazy. If your politics requires you to deem otherwise, you cannot reach an agreement with him. Democrats like to believe that Trump and Putin both are insane dictators. By contrast, they perceive Joe Biden to be the epitome of measured contemplation. That says plenty.

I deem Putin to be sensible and logically motivated. Primarily, NATO has not admitted Russia but did accept a theocratic, dictator-driven regime in Recep Erdogan’s Turkey. Putin does not want an oppositional NATO stationed on his western flank, with NATO weapons and armed forces able to strike anything dynamic Russia tries to do. Is that unreasonable?

Putin has acted grievously by invading Ukraine, but his determined opposition to a NATO polity on his border is comprehensible. We Americans have made clear, almost from our founding, that we will not abide foreign countries coming to the Western Hemisphere to engage in mischief. We call it “The Monroe Doctrine.” By 1962 we still were ready to go to nuclear war to get Russian missiles out of Cuba.

(Most college students today would assume our “Monroe Doctrine” has something to do with Marilyn Monroe and her white dress over the New York subway sidewalk air vents. It is what it is. Tear down Teddy Roosevelt monuments, ban naming public schools for Abraham Lincoln. One of these days a bunch of AOC acolytes will start pneumatic-drilling and digging up the pavement of the FDR Drive and moving the cement somewhere. Really, that is the way to honor heroes in the future: skip the school namings, and let pigeons find somewhere else to see a man about a horse. Name highways and freeways for Columbus.)

In addition, Putin wants to be remembered as Putin the Great, akin to Russian historic dominant figures like Catherine the Great and Peter the Great. History has had others: Alexander the Great, André the Giant, Charlemagne (Charles the Great). Others of note have included Vlad the Impaler, Hans the Great, Philp the Fair, Charles the Bald, and Stan the Man. Putin has held various leadership positions the past twenty years: Russian President from 2000-2008 and 2012 until now, Prime Minister from 1999-2000 and 2008-2012. Initially, a guy like him has the goal of holding on, not getting assassinated or impeached-and-ousted. Soon, he sees he can hold on, so redirects his life foci on getting reelectedas often as possible. Then he starts aiming to stay in office even after he is termed-out. (Abu Mazen aka Mahmoud Abbas of the “Palestine Authority,” elected January 2005, now is in the 17th year of his five-year term.) Once they have been in power a long time, as Putin has, they begin thinking more about Wikipedia and legacy.

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https://spectator.org/the-best-negotiated-putin-ukraine-agreement-i-can-come-up-with/

[Kamaji]

See what Ukraine thinks of the idea.  However, the analogy to Canada's position in the Commonwealth is not really on point, since Ukraine was never part of a free commonwealth of which Russia was only the titular head, and Canada is only titularly subordinate to the U.K., and is in all other respects sovereign.

A better end-goal is transitioning Ukraine into the Eastern European version of Switzerland.

[catfish1957]

See what Ukraine thinks of the idea.  However, the analogy to Canada's position in the Commonwealth is not really on point, since Ukraine was never part of a free commonwealth of which Russia was only the titular head, and Canada is only titularly subordinate to the U.K., and is in all other respects sovereign.

A better end-goal is transitioning Ukraine into the Eastern European version of Switzerland.

As I mentioned at the other thread, when the USSR was dissolved, there was an agreement that Russia would never invade Ukraine as long as their Nukes were surrendered.  That fact is enough to negate what I feel is any good faith Russia has during negotiatiions. They can't be trusted.

To end this, this needs to be a brokered deal by independent states, My thoughts?  NATO, and China as proxy.

[Kamaji]

As I mentioned at the other thread, when the USSR was dissolved, there was an agreement that Russia would never invade Ukraine as long as their Nukes were surrendered.  That fact is enough to negate what I feel is any good faith Russia has during negotiatiions. They can't be trusted.

To end this, this needs to be a brokered deal by independent states, My thoughts?  NATO, and China as proxy.

That might present a do-able negotiating round.  At the risk of giving China more power than it has already arrogated to itself, China may be the only country Russia would listen to at this point.