Catfish posted:
"I supported Abbott this time versus West and Huffines for the fact that there is no freaking way that we need to give Beto even the slightest opening to become governor. Beto needs to get a sub 40% crushing defeat that will seal his political coffin for good."
Fishrrman kinda-shaky prediction:
Beto is going to give Abbott the same "close call" as he gave Cruz last time.
It's going to shake up A LOT of Texans regarding the future of their state...
@Fishrrman Maybe you see something I don't. Both primaires were contested this year, so that is a fairly decent barometer of that exact moment of support. 1.8M voted in the GOP primary, while a tad south of 1.1M went dim. That's about a 62%-38% break down.
Then add these facts:
(1) That the valley is trending red. And that is indisputable, This is an event that I thought would never see in my life time.
(2) Biden in general is about as popular here as a colonoscopy. There will be reverse coat tails, as Pedo Joe continues to flounder.
(3) Beto during the '20 presidental primary debates famously said he was coming to get our guns (AR-15's specifically). Do you realize how unpopular that statement was in the state of Texas? Even our dimocrats are generally pro 2-A.
(4) Don't estimate the impact and anger of the democratic anti-oil industry rhetoric on our populus. Not only the workers, but all the supporting industries and businesses that rely on oil are pissed as hell.
I'll stick with the 40% threshold at this point in time. I know a lot can happen between now and November, but at this exact moment, I'd give Beto about a 1 in 50,000 chance of winning. And close to 50/50 even breaking 40%.