European Combat Air Power:
A Snapshot
Douglas Barrie, Bastian Giegerich, Fabian Hoffmann, Amanda Lapo,
Charlotte Le Breton, Ben Schreer
March 2022
2 The International Institute for Strategic Studies
Contents
Introduction 3
Political combat 3
Changed days 3
Things to come 4
Chapter One: The return of a contested air environment 5
Enduring character 5
Threat drivers: Russia 6
China’s challenge 8
The risk from below 9
A European response 10
Chapter Two: European goals and programme realities 12
Ties that bind 12
Euro-fighting 13
Further trouble 14
What next? 15
Saved by the UCAV? 16
American connections 17
Windows of opportunity 18
Chapter Three: Will two ever go into one? 19
Anglo-French or Franco-British? 19
Mock-ups but concrete ambition 20
Seven pillars of … 21
International by degrees of design 21
Chapter Four: Near-term choices 23
Lightning strikes again, and again 23
Maturing with age 24
Berlin and the bomb 25
Elections, outcomes and implications 26
Conclusion: an inflection era?
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