How Not To Think About Ukraine

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How Not To Think About Ukraine

As Russia wages war on its neighbor, Western observers fall into familiar patterns of thought, with potentially disastrous results.

By Sohrab Ahmari
February 28, 2022

Russia’s invasion of Ukraine is a very big deal and a very bad thing.  Permit me to stipulate that, before going on to observe that the event has also triggered the latest outbreak of mass hysteria among the Western ruling class, the severest yet.

Just when sobriety, responsibility, probity, and diplomatic skill are most needful, our pundits and policymakers offer the opposite:  trembling emotion, cheap propaganda, wild fantasies, a refusal to dialogue and de-escalate.  And the worst part is: It’s all so damned familiar.  Once more, we are falling—or rather, being driven—into structural information traps that hamper sound decision-making and force policy choices we might regret dearly when it’s too late.

The process has proved highly costly in recent years.  This time, it could spell catastrophe.  This time, rash action risks a direct confrontation with a mighty Eurasian civilization with wounded pride and a vast arsenal of strategic weapons. How did we get here?

If you’re stuck in one of these info traps, it is very difficult to pull yourself out.  Those who might try to help will face the full force of your wrath (as we will see).  Once the media moment has passed, of course, you might wonder how you ever came to believe X or to advocate Y.  There might be hints of regret.  But then life presses on.  Other concerns compete for your limited time and attention.  That is, until the next trap-laden media event.

Yet we must examine previous episodes.  Four especially stand out:  the post-9/11 wars, the Arab Spring, the European migrant crisis, and the Covid pandemic.  These happen to be the defining media moments of my career as a journalist, and in some cases, I fell into the info traps.  The experience indelibly shaped my worldview.  But you don’t need to share my worldview to notice—and beware—three info-trap patterns common to all of these media moments.

First, beware emotionally charged images that tend to overwhelm reason.
The Arab Spring should have been instructive on this count. Following the self-immolation of a Tunisian fruit vendor in 2010, images of denim-clad, smartphone-wielding young liberals taking to the streets dazzled reporters and social-media users. The images fed a narrative of heroic Jeffersonians facing down hidebound kleptocrats. The fervor suppressed inconvenient questions.

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Second, beware the treatment of dissent or criticism as treason.
This is perhaps the most pernicious pattern in info traps, because it taps into the very human tendency to ostracize and “out-group” dissidents. Modern media, with their power to incite ravenous mobs, have supercharged this ancient temptation. The mob has been instructed to defend a certain policy—and only a traitor or villain could have second thoughts!

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Third and finally, beware delusions of total mastery over complex crises.
It’s all too easy for people speculating on traditional or social media that complex matters are actually simple, that “we” can take drastic measures without worrying about the consequences, because the West enjoys a uniquely capable civilization, thanks to its scientific and technological prowess. We think we can “game out” the outcomes, to see around the corner, to prophesy with data.

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Source:  https://www.theamericanconservative.com/articles/how-not-to-think-about-ukraine/