Why Putin Has Not Been Deterred By Victor Davis Hanson

[mystery-ak]

Why Putin Has Not Been Deterred

Exasperated Americans fear Vladimir Putin is deterred neither by sanctions nor by arms sales but follows only his own sense of cost-to-benefit self-interest.

By Victor Davis Hanson
January 26, 2022

Americans want an autonomous Ukraine to survive. They hope the West can stop Russian President Vladimir Putin’s strangulation of both Ukraine and NATO.

Yet Americans do not want their troops to venture across the world to Europe’s backyard to fight nuclear Russia to ensure that Ukraine stays independent.

Most Americans oppose the notion that Russia can simply dictate the future of Ukraine.

Yet Americans also grudgingly accept that Ukraine was often historically part of Russia. During World War II, it was the bloody scene of joint Russian-Ukrainian sacrifices—over 5 million killed—to defeat the Nazi German invasion.

Americans publicly support NATO.

Yet most Americas privately worry that NATO has become diplomatically impotent and a military mirage—a modern League of Nations.

NATO members have a collective GDP seven times larger than Russia’s. Their aggregate population is 1 billion. Yet the majority will not spend enough on defense to deter their weaker enemies.

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https://amgreatness.com/2022/01/26/why-putin-has-not-been-deterred/

[DefiantMassRINO]

Putin has not been deterred because Vlad believes he's bigger, meaner bully in this fight.

He'll push to see how far he can go without getting a bloody nose.

- Ukraine is surrounded on three sides by Russian forces
- Russian troops are already present in Ukraine (Crimea, Luhansk People's Republic, Donetsk People's Republic)
- The Russian navy is being positioned to cut NATO undersea communications cables and obstruct NATO flight paths to hinder NATO's ability to respond.
- Germany's dependence upon Russian natural gas is used to interfere with NATO and EU unaminity.
- He's calculating the NATO countries will be reluctant to send troops to a shooting war because they are politically fatigued after 20 years of war in Afghanistan.

Now might be a good time:

- for Finland to ask to be admitted to NATO on an expedited, emergency basis.
- to support Irish fishermen's plan to disrupt Russian naval exercises off Cork as subterfuge
- for Joe Biden, Antony Blinken, Lloyd Austin to make an unannouced visit to Kiev
- for Ukraine to ask the UN to deploy peacekeepers and humanitarian resources to Donbas to undercut Putin's humanitarian pretext for invading Ukraine
- for NATO to increase naval presence in Black Sea, Baltic Sea, Barents Sea, North Sea, Mediterranean Sea
- for US, Japan, South Korea to announce joint naval exercises in the Sea of Japan, off Vladivistok, in International Waters, but still within its Economic Exclusion Zone (like Russia is doing to Ireland).

Squeeze Russia like an anaconda, just as Russia hopes to squeeze Ukraine.