Were Drone Strikes Effective? Evaluating the Drone Campaign in Pakistan Through Captured al-Qaeda Documents
Bryce Loidolt
At a time when the United States seems likely to rely heavily on targeted killing as an instrument of counter-terrorism, scholars, policymakers, and other analysts remain divided over its utility. These disagreements have been especially pronounced in scholarship and commentary regarding the U.S. drone campaign in Pakistan. This systematic review of declassified Arabic-language correspondence among senior al-Qaeda leaders and operatives suggests that drone strikes eroded the quality of al-Qaeda’s personnel base, forced the group to reduce communications and other activities, and compelled it to flee its safe haven in Pakistan’s tribal regions. Yet, the results were sometimes incomplete and took years of sustained pressure to achieve. U.S. policymakers should acknowledge these limitations and plan to supplement future lethal targeting campaigns with other complementary counter-terrorism instruments.
The day after the last U.S. soldier had departed Afghanistan, President Joe Biden contended, “We will maintain the fight against terrorism in Afghanistan and other countries. We just don’t need to fight a ground war to do it.”1 Specifically, the Biden administration has touted the use of “over-the-horizon capabilities” to remotely surveil and carry out operations against terrorist operatives and targets without a permanent U.S. military presence on the ground.2 This approach is logical. Strategic documents produced by both the Trump and Biden administrations have emphasized interstate competition with Russia and China, implying that fewer resources should be dedicated to counter-terrorism efforts.3 Biden’s announcement marking the end of the U.S. military presence in Afghanistan indeed highlighted that “there’s nothing China or Russia would rather have, would want more in this competition than the United States to be bogged down another decade in Afghanistan.”4
https://tnsr.org/2022/01/were-drone-strikes-effective-evaluating-the-drone-campaign-in-pakistan-through-captured-al-qaeda-documents/
