Is Nuclear Power Ready At Last For Its ‘Model T’ Moment?
Michael LynchSenior Contributor
Energy
I analyze petroleum economics and energy policy.
Anyone who expresses optimism about nuclear power gets the automatic retort that ‘It was supposed to be too cheap to meter, instead it’s too expensive to build.’ There’s some truth to that, but it ignores the potential future of the industry. As Heroclitus said, all is in motion. (Okay, Yoda said that too.)
Matt Ridley, in his book How Innovation Works, argues that nuclear power suffers because the technology has not been allowed to advance by trial and error, the way so many others have done. Steam locomotives went through numerous innovations before they became commercially viable and continue to do so, indeed, up until the current day. However, there are no tinkerers working in garages trying out different models of nuclear reactors.
Except: well, the field actually has advanced substantially. The capacity factor in U.S. reactors has increased substantially over the years, so that nuclear power generation in the U.S. has grown by 40%—without new reactors. As the figure below shows, in 1990, when nearly every American reactor now operating had come online, the capacity factor was 66%; since 2000, it has consistently been about 90%. This was the result of operators studying best practices and evolutionary improvements.
https://www.forbes.com/sites/michaellynch/2021/09/20/is-nuclear-power-ready-for-its-model-t-moment/?sh=ca3de9c28c44
