GOP gains? That's going to be a miracle and another miracle of those gains equate to a majority. I wish I could be more optimistic. (Yes, I get it -- CNN).
Why Republicans are poised for gains in 2022 regardless of who wins in Virginia on TuesdayThe political world eagerly awaits results from Tuesday's Virginia gubernatorial race, but they won't yield much new information about 2022 and beyond.
Republican candidate Glenn Youngkin has run a strong race in a Democratic-trending state -- which, if that translates into victory, would match Virginia's longstanding pattern of rewarding the party that lost the White House the year before. A Youngkin victory would be no surprise, though polls generally show a close race with Democratic opponent Terry McAuliffe.
Republicans nationally are poised for gains in next year's midterm elections - reflecting the nation's longstanding pattern of rewarding the party that lost the White House two years before. So long as Americans remain uneasy about the pandemic, the economy, and President Joe Biden's leadership, Democrats stand to lose control of Congress whether or not McAuliffe manages to keep the Virginia governor's mansion in his party's hands.
"If McAuliffe wins by one or loses by one, is the message going to be any different?" asked Larry Sabato, who directs the University of Virginia Center on Politics. "No -- it's going to be a tough midterm."
The prospect of 2021 and 2022 elections following established trendlines says little in particular about Youngkin, McAuliffe, Virginia, congressional Democrats, or Biden. They simply represent new cast members in a familiar political play.
The same tidal forces shape the odd-year and midterm contests following a race for the White House. As the nation's highest-profile public official, a new President quickly becomes the focus of prevailing public discontents.
Biden's recent struggles have dragged his approval ratings underwater, nationally and in Virginia. Four years ago, then-President Donald Trump was in even worse political shape in the wake of his erratic behavior, racial provocations, and attempt to repeal the Affordable Care Act....................
https://www.cnn.com/2021/10/31/politics/virginia-governor-race-republican-gains-2022/index.html
