Intel Assessment: ‘High’ Chance Of International Conflict Over Water By 2040
From Asia to the Middle East, worries rise like flood waters over the future of water security.
By Lee Ferran on October 21, 2021 at 2:33 PM
WASHINGTON: There’s no shortage of near-future fiction in which a lack of water is the source of all mankind’s woes — and, apparently, fire-guitars. But while screenwriters may take artistic license, increasing tensions over water availability is a very real security concern for US analysts and will only get worse if the world fails to address climate change, according to a new intelligence report.
“[A]s temperatures rise and more extreme effects manifest, there is a growing risk of conflict over water and migration, particularly after 2030, and an increasing chance that countries will unilaterally test and deploy large-scale geoengineering — creating a new area of geopolitical disputes,” reads a National Intelligence Estimate on climate change, published today by the Director of National Intelligence.
The 15-page report covers a range of looming climate-related security concerns, from the potential for military conflict in the arctic as the ice cap melts to the lack of dialogue around the aforementioned and sci-fi-sounding “geoengineering,” which refers to methods of artificially cooling the planet. (Movie-lovers will remember that’s how the dystopia of “Snowpiercer,” among others, was born.)
https://breakingdefense.com/2021/10/intel-assessment-high-chance-of-international-conflict-over-water-by-2040/
