Threat posed by Iran is ‘unlikely’ to extend beyond CENTCOM region, report
By James R. Webb
Friday, Oct 1
A “large-scale” attack by Iran on U.S partners or allies “appears remote” as Iran has shown a “clear reluctance” to commit “conventional” forces in direct combat, a new report from the Rand corporation states. As a result, any threat posed is “unlikely” to extend outside of the Central Command region.
The report, funded by the U.S. Army, is designed to inform Army planners under what conditions Tehran might intervene in another country and to what degree Iranian leadership might commit its armed forces. Researches conducted analysis on what has driven Iranian military actions and interventions going back to the establishment of the Islamic Republic of Iran in 1979.
Ultimately, the researchers found that Iran is historically reluctant to directly engage in foreign interventions, having done so eight times since 1979. If Iran chooses to intervene conventionally outside its borders, Tehran prefers to use naval or air assets in “small-scale and targeted” strikes that support its interests. Experts said in the report that these small-scale attacks, facilitated by Tehran’s drone and missile programs, are likely to continue, and partner nations would benefit from U.S. training preparing them for such an attack.
https://www.militarytimes.com/flashpoints/2021/10/01/threat-posed-by-iran-is-unlikely-to-extend-beyond-centcom-region-report/
