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Author Topic: Tropical Storm Nicholas Advisories Including Updates  (Read 2642 times)

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Offline catfish1957

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Re: Tropical Storm Nicholas Advisories Including Updates
« Reply #25 on: September 14, 2021, 09:22:06 am »
14 Sep 2021 4 AM update
BULLETIN
Tropical Storm Nicholas Advisory Number   9
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL       AL142021
400 AM CDT Tue Sep 14 2021

...NICHOLAS COULD CAUSE LIFE-THREATENING FLASH FLOODS ACROSS THE
DEEP SOUTH DURING THE NEXT COUPLE OF DAYS...


SUMMARY OF 400 AM CDT...0900 UTC...INFORMATION
----------------------------------------------
LOCATION...29.3N 95.6W
ABOUT 30 MI...50 KM SSW OF HOUSTON TEXAS
ABOUT 35 MI...55 KM NNW OF FREEPORT TEXAS
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...70 MPH...110 KM/H
PRESENT MOVEMENT...NNE OR 25 DEGREES AT 9 MPH...15 KM/H
MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...994 MB...29.36 INCHES

===========================================================
1. Nicholas now inland, at 70 mph winds moving NNE a 9 mph 25 miles about SW of Houston.
2. Satellite imagery is showing some damage to storm, and one 200 mile diameter fragment of convection and storms has seperated and looks to be centered just off shore south of Sabine Pass.  Overall and in the past 3-4 satelitte loops(and maybe this is hopeful thinking), this thing looks like it is rapidly weakening.
3. NHC path looks to having the storm slow downand almost stall.  Between now and Thursday afternoon storm, the NHC expects the storm to parallel the SE Texas and SW Louisana coast, only moving about 200 miles in the process or 3 mph in the total process.
4. Wide area 6-10 inches of rain.
5. At my location in SE Texas, heavy rain and maybe 10 mph wind.  20 minutes ago, at the start of this rain band, I was seeing some 30-35 mph gusts.

Latest IR image...


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Offline catfish1957

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Re: Tropical Storm Nicholas Advisories Including Updates
« Reply #26 on: September 14, 2021, 10:05:51 am »
The precipitation  shield has really fallen apart on the western and southern side of the storm.  In fact I don't see any rainfall on radar SW and South of a Galveston to Columbus line.  That is some good news concerning the flooding risk, at least in SE Texas.
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Offline Gefn

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Re: Tropical Storm Nicholas Advisories Including Updates
« Reply #27 on: September 14, 2021, 10:27:23 am »
Bookmark.
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Online Elderberry

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Re: Tropical Storm Nicholas Advisories Including Updates
« Reply #28 on: September 14, 2021, 11:16:21 am »
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Online Bigun

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Re: Tropical Storm Nicholas Advisories Including Updates
« Reply #29 on: September 14, 2021, 01:50:30 pm »
Nicholas is currently sitting about 70 miles to my SSE but New Orleans, 500 odd miles East, is getting more rain than I am.  Mother nature is fickle!
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Offline catfish1957

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Re: Tropical Storm Nicholas Advisories Including Updates
« Reply #30 on: September 14, 2021, 02:07:48 pm »
Quote from: Bigun on September 14, 2021, 01:50:30 pm
Nicholas is currently sitting about 70 miles to my SSE but New Orleans, 500 odd miles East, is getting more rain than I am.  Mother nature is fickle!

We must be neighbors...   :cool:

Neverimind, its about 70 miles to my SSW
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Online Bigun

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Re: Tropical Storm Nicholas Advisories Including Updates
« Reply #31 on: September 14, 2021, 02:21:11 pm »
Quote from: catfish1957 on September 14, 2021, 02:07:48 pm
We must be neighbors...   :cool:

Neverimind, its about 70 miles to my SSW

Still neighbors!  :beer:
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"I wish it need not have happened in my time," said Frodo.

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Offline Kamaji

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Re: Tropical Storm Nicholas Advisories Including Updates
« Reply #32 on: September 14, 2021, 02:31:41 pm »
Quote from: catfish1957 on September 14, 2021, 02:07:48 pm
We must be neighbors...   :cool:

Neverimind, its about 70 miles to my SSW

@catfish1957
If the storm is 70 mi to your SSW, and 70 mi to @Bigun 's  SSE, that should make the difference between your two points about 50 mi or so.  In Texas, that makes you cheek-by-jowl next-door neighbors, doesn't it?
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Offline catfish1957

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Re: Tropical Storm Nicholas Advisories Including Updates
« Reply #33 on: September 14, 2021, 02:59:02 pm »
Quote from: Kamaji on September 14, 2021, 02:31:41 pm
@catfish1957
If the storm is 70 mi to your SSW, and 70 mi to @Bigun 's  SSE, that should make the difference between your two points about 50 mi or so.  In Texas, that makes you cheek-by-jowl next-door neighbors, doesn't it?

True, and based on Csq= Asq +Bsq, he'd be about 99 miles away. 

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Offline catfish1957

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Re: Tropical Storm Nicholas Advisories Including Updates
« Reply #34 on: September 14, 2021, 03:07:25 pm »
Looking at radar, it looks like in my neighborhood, I only have to contend with what looks like one maybe two more narrow rain bands before this thing looks like it is wrapping up for at least SE Texas.

Just checked my trusty rain guage and the whole storm only left me 2.71 inches.  What bust...thankfully.
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Offline catfish1957

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Re: Tropical Storm Nicholas Advisories Including Updates
« Reply #35 on: September 14, 2021, 05:13:38 pm »
Had a 70 minute power outage, as winds have increased to 30-35 mph.    Rain has subsided though, and I think the final tally (if it really has stopped raining) is 3.15 inches. From radar, it looks like the center is about 20 miles to my southwest

It has gotten lighter, and almost surreal that the storm is right on me, but all the heavy rain has been sheared to the north and east.
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Offline catfish1957

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Re: Tropical Storm Nicholas Advisories Including Updates
« Reply #36 on: September 14, 2021, 05:18:09 pm »
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Online Bigun

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Re: Tropical Storm Nicholas Advisories Including Updates
« Reply #37 on: September 14, 2021, 05:21:48 pm »
Quote from: catfish1957 on September 14, 2021, 05:13:38 pm
Had a 70 minute power outage, as winds have increased to 30-35 mph.    Rain has subsided though, and I think the final tally (if it really has stopped raining) is 3.15 inches. From radar, it looks like the center is about 20 miles to my southwest

It has gotten lighter, and almost surreal that the storm is right on me, but all the heavy rain has been sheared to the north and east.

So far, I've gotten just over 1/2" total out of this storm and very little wind.
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"I wish it need not have happened in my time," said Frodo.

"So do I," said Gandalf, "and so do all who live to see such times. But that is not for them to decide. All we have to decide is what to do with the time that is given us."
- J. R. R. Tolkien

Offline GrouchoTex

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Re: Tropical Storm Nicholas Advisories Including Updates
« Reply #38 on: September 14, 2021, 05:27:07 pm »
Power went out about 6am, still out now.
Had some limbs come down from the oak tree in the front yard.
Nothing big, all smaller ones.
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Online Bigun

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Re: Tropical Storm Nicholas Advisories Including Updates
« Reply #39 on: September 14, 2021, 05:42:01 pm »
I've weathered many storms in my 72+ years but this is one is a first for me. never seen the rain field get blown 500 miles East of the actual storm center before.
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"I wish it need not have happened in my time," said Frodo.

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- J. R. R. Tolkien

Offline catfish1957

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Re: Tropical Storm Nicholas Advisories Including Updates
« Reply #40 on: September 14, 2021, 05:57:44 pm »
Quote from: Bigun on September 14, 2021, 05:42:01 pm
I've weathered many storms in my 72+ years but this is one is a first for me. never seen the rain field get blown 500 miles East of the actual storm center before.

Yeah buddy...  Shear with a capital "S".  Whacking off Nicholas convection from his COC probably means this low dies pretty quickly.
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Offline Kamaji

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Re: Tropical Storm Nicholas Advisories Including Updates
« Reply #41 on: September 14, 2021, 06:15:27 pm »
Quote from: catfish1957 on September 14, 2021, 02:59:02 pm
True, and based on Csq= Asq +Bsq, he'd be about 99 miles away. 



While I'm no math whiz, I think the imputed distance between the two of you would be (sin 22.5 deg) * 70 mi. * 2 = 53.57 miles.
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Offline catfish1957

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Re: Tropical Storm Nicholas Advisories Including Updates
« Reply #42 on: September 14, 2021, 06:27:09 pm »
Quote from: Kamaji on September 14, 2021, 06:15:27 pm
While I'm no math whiz, I think the imputed distance between the two of you would be (sin 22.5 deg) * 70 mi. * 2 = 53.57 miles.

lol...  I haven't had college math in almost 50 years....Right or wrong,   I was using pythagorean thereom to find the 3rd side (length) of a triangle.  Actual distance was about 96 miles based on feedback from Bigun.  But then again, I wasn't a math major either
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Offline Kamaji

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Re: Tropical Storm Nicholas Advisories Including Updates
« Reply #43 on: September 14, 2021, 06:39:22 pm »
Quote from: catfish1957 on September 14, 2021, 06:27:09 pm
lol...  I haven't had college math in almost 50 years....Right or wrong,   I was using pythagorean thereom to find the 3rd side (length) of a triangle.  Actual distance was about 96 miles based on feedback from Bigun.  But then again, I wasn't a math major either

Fair dinkum!  Actual always beats theoretical!
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Online Bigun

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Re: Tropical Storm Nicholas Advisories Including Updates
« Reply #44 on: September 14, 2021, 06:54:25 pm »
Quote from: Kamaji on September 14, 2021, 06:39:22 pm
Fair dinkum!  Actual always beats theoretical!

And the theoretical depends on accurate azimuths. I was just guessing.
« Last Edit: September 15, 2021, 04:17:26 pm by Bigun »
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"I wish it need not have happened in my time," said Frodo.

"So do I," said Gandalf, "and so do all who live to see such times. But that is not for them to decide. All we have to decide is what to do with the time that is given us."
- J. R. R. Tolkien

Offline Right_in_Virginia

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Re: Tropical Storm Nicholas Advisories Including Updates
« Reply #45 on: September 15, 2021, 04:15:28 pm »
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Online AllThatJazzZ

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Re: Tropical Storm Nicholas Advisories Including Updates
« Reply #46 on: September 17, 2021, 05:15:00 am »
Quote from: catfish1957 on September 14, 2021, 05:18:09 pm


I all depends on where you were, but I shall rebuild as well.  :seeya:


Also, roof sprung a leak.  8888crybaby
« Last Edit: September 17, 2021, 05:18:22 am by AllThatJazzZ »
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Offline catfish1957

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Re: Tropical Storm Nicholas Advisories Including Updates
« Reply #47 on: September 17, 2021, 07:13:43 am »
Quote from: AllThatJazzZ on September 17, 2021, 05:15:00 am
I all depends on where you were, but I shall rebuild as well.  :seeya:


Also, roof sprung a leak.  8888crybaby

Sorry to hear that ATJ.  Were you near Matagora Bay?  I do know that area got some Cat 1 winds, but reports did say damage was minimal.
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