Author Topic: Tropical Storm Nicholas Advisories Including Updates (Read 2647 times)

catfish1957 · « **on:** September 12, 2021, 03:49:49 am »

Providing an Alert to Coastal and Louisana areas for what is likely going be a very wet, and possibly flood potential in the upcoming week.

The NHC is monitoring an area of convection and spin in the far south part of the Bay of Compeche, just off the west coast of the Yucatan Peninsula. First a bit of good news... 11 of the 14 models only have the storm reaching Tropical Storm strength, 3 only reaching Tropical Depression status, and none at Hurricane Strength..

Now for the bad news, (see below), Forecsters are saying that there will likely be a swath of the coastal areas of Texas and Louisana that may see 10+ inches of rain.

Models are also showing that path from the southern BOC will likely be NNW towards anywhere from Mexico south of Brownsville, to about Bay City. Storm is them expected to curve northeastward SE Texas. The main deal to understand here, is where is exactly the eye storm lands as important as where you reside in proximity to the storm. And the east side is typically the dirty (rainy) side. Historically, I have seen and consider these to be nasty flood makers rather than wind and surge problems. Which means pretty much that anyone from the Texas Coastal Plains through Louisiana need to keep an eye on weather for the next week. No one is calling this an Allison type storm yet.... but things change rapidly.

If the storm reaches 39 mph sustained winds it will be named Nicholas

catfish1957 · « **Reply #1 on:** September 12, 2021, 12:41:39 pm »

Sunday morning update....

Looking at the Sat map loops this morning, it sure seems that 94L is getting its act together. I can see what looks to be strong low with convection at about 19N, 92W. Still just a blob, and no discernable circulation yet. Also hindering 94L is some killer SSW to NNE shear that has blown alot of the storng convection almost into the central Gulf. I don't think the NHC will be calling this a depression at 8am.

Latest 94L modeling run significantly moves disturbance/storm up the coast with biggest concentration of scenarios (landfall) from the Corpus - Port Arthur area. Overall trajectory is still pretty close- NNW-N-. then NNE. 15 of the 18 Intensity models predict tropical storm strength. The other 3 keep it as a Depression. Overall precipation total estimates have not changed, but as the expected eastward shift of track will obviously mean more intense rain for a better part of La. Coast now... incluidng SE Louisana.

catfish1957 · « **Reply #2 on:** September 12, 2021, 03:50:02 pm »

Oops.... I missed this one. Apparently, (though I kind of question) The NHC was able not only able to discern of full circulation, but found 39 mph winds in what we were formerly calling Invest 93L

At the 10 AM advisory, and bypassing tropical depressions status, the NHC is now calling the blob in the Bay of Campeche Tropical Storm Nicholas. Forecast strength is about 60 mph presently @ landfall, which right now is near Port Lavaca. What is jaw dropping though is the sheer slowness this storm might show afterwards:

On 7am Tuesday near Port Lavaca
On 7am Friday near Marshall, Texas- That's about 325 miles over 72 hours or about 4 mph. People in Costal Bend Texas, (and points inland) to SE Louisana need to get ready for a possible significant rainfall event. This smells more like Allison every advisory, and I'd be willing to bet these 10-15 inch rain estimates are well understated.

For record it looks like T.S warnings have been issued just south of Brownsville to Corpus, and a T.S watch for Corpus to up the coast to about High Island.

Wingnut · « **Reply #3 on:** September 12, 2021, 03:57:05 pm »

Next month the westerly winds will most likely push any gulf disturbances toward FL or across FL to the Atlantic.

Fearless Wingnut Forecast. Because I've seen a thing or two! :)

catfish1957 · « **Reply #4 on:** September 12, 2021, 04:08:22 pm »

Quote from: Wingnut on September 12, 2021, 03:57:05 pm

Next month the westerly winds will most likely push any gulf disturbances toward FL or across FL to the Atlantic.

Fearless Wingnut Forecast. Because I've seen a thing or two! :)

Interesting Catfish Factoid.... Since record keeping began in 1851, not one major hurricane (Cat 3 or larger) has hit the state of Texas after October 1st. Mostly for the reason you stated, and more for the reason that fall fronts and troughs draw the storms up more northernly and easterly toward northern and eastern GOM.

catfish1957 · « **Reply #5 on:** September 12, 2021, 04:18:40 pm »

Just in case deptarment....

Reviewing Wind probability profiles, some locations are showing a 1-3% hurricane probability mostly @ TX coastal bend locations.

Not likely, but not inconceivable, especially if you subscibe to model trending.

catfish1957 · « **Reply #6 on:** September 12, 2021, 04:27:08 pm »

This has got to be one of the most ragged T.S's I have ever seen. AF recon probably needed Braille to find a COC on this blob. One thing though.... though sheered the convection associated with this thing has blossomed nicely. More evidence that this might be a helluva rainmaker.

Elderberry · « **Reply #7 on:** September 12, 2021, 10:25:24 pm »

Tropical storm warnings have been issued along the coast of Texas from the Mouth of the Rio Grande to Freeport. This means tropical-storm-force winds (39+ mph) are expected in these areas beginning as early as Monday or Monday night.

A hurricane watch is also now in effect for a part of the middle Texas coast, from Port Aransas to Sargent. Hurricane conditions could occur in this area by Monday night.

A tropical storm watch is in effect on the Texas coast from north of Port Aransas to High Island. These areas could see tropical-storm-force winds by late Monday night or early Tuesday.

https://weather.com/storms/hurricane/news/2021-09-12-tropical-storm-nicholas-forecast-texas-louisiana

libertybele · « **Reply #8 on:** September 13, 2021, 12:15:30 am »

Quote from: Wingnut on September 12, 2021, 03:57:05 pm

Next month the westerly winds will most likely push any gulf disturbances toward FL or across FL to the Atlantic.

Fearless Wingnut Forecast. Because I've seen a thing or two! :)

Say it isn't so. I don't want to dodge hurricanes this year.

Neutral atmosphere inching toward La Niña climate pattern

On Thursday, the Climate Prediction Center said the atmosphere was still in a neutral condition but is increasingly heading toward La Niña. The climate pattern La Niña is more encouraging to tropical cyclones because it reduces storm-thwarting wind shear in the Atlantic.

La Niña appeared last year in early September and the hurricane season ran well into November with Category 4 Hurricane Iota forming Nov. 13.

“There is a worry that this season will go into November again,” Kottlowski said. “Usually by November the wind shear becomes very problematic for storms, but with La Niña, it’s not there.” ...............

https://www.palmbeachpost.com/story/weather/2021/09/10/florida-2021-peak-hurricane-season-sept-10-but-its-not-done-yet/5750473001/

Wingnut · « **Reply #9 on:** September 13, 2021, 12:26:14 am »

Quote from: libertybele on September 13, 2021, 12:15:30 am

Say it isn't so. I don't want to dodge hurricanes this year.

Neutral atmosphere inching toward La Niña climate pattern

On Thursday, the Climate Prediction Center said the atmosphere was still in a neutral condition but is increasingly heading toward La Niña. The climate pattern La Niña is more encouraging to tropical cyclones because it reduces storm-thwarting wind shear in the Atlantic.

La Niña appeared last year in early September and the hurricane season ran well into November with Category 4 Hurricane Iota forming Nov. 13.

“There is a worry that this season will go into November again,” Kottlowski said. “Usually by November the wind shear becomes very problematic for storms, but with La Niña, it’s not there.” ...............

https://www.palmbeachpost.com/story/weather/2021/09/10/florida-2021-peak-hurricane-season-sept-10-but-its-not-done-yet/5750473001/

Com'n man. Fear is how these ass hole roll.

catfish1957 · « **Reply #10 on:** September 13, 2021, 01:10:43 am »

7Pm Advisory- T.S. Nicholas-
Tropical Storm Nicholas Intermediate Advisory Number 2A...corrected
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL AL142021
700 PM CDT Sun Sep 12 2021

Corrected Tropical Storm Watch area

...NICHOLAS MOVING LITTLE AT THIS TIME...
...EXPECTED TO HEAD FOR THE TEXAS COAST LATER TONIGHT AND MONDAY...

SUMMARY OF 700 PM CDT...0000 UTC...INFORMATION
----------------------------------------------
LOCATION...22.5N 95.5W
ABOUT 170 MI...275 KM ESE OF LA PESCA MEXICO
ABOUT 260 MI...415 KM SSE OF MOUTH OF THE RIO GRANDE
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...40 MPH...65 KM/H
PRESENT MOVEMENT...N OR 360 DEGREES AT 2 MPH...4 KM/H
MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...1008 MB...29.77 INCHES

========================================================

Biggest change in forecast is that Nicholas is forecasted to pretty much stall after landfall in east Texas/Western Louisana. Storm at present has slowed to a crawl too. Landfall (at least center of predicted path) is near Port Lavaca early Tuesday a.m. QPF's have been updated accordingly too, (Qualitative Precipitation Forecasts) Some areas now are expected to get 15-20 inches of rain. Forecasted strength has been slightly updated higher too. Probablity of hurricane winds has been updated to as high as 8% on Coastal Bend Locations. Again, with model trending, I am thinking this thing has a better and better chance of reaching Hurricane Strength by landfall.

Sat wise, Nicholas is really gaining some steam, as we now precipation banding of some sort on all 4 quadrants of storm. Still seeing a lot of sheer, so much so that the entire western 1/3 of GOM is shrouded in cloud cover. Still storm is very elongated , and that is not a sign of storm seeing rapid intensification. Even here in my location of SE Texas, easily 500 miles from storn, we saw our first brief burst of a rain band.

To my fellow SE Texas, SW LA, and Coastal Bend TX briefers. I'd be preparing for a significant rain and flooding event in our areas.

libertybele · « **Reply #11 on:** September 13, 2021, 02:02:53 am »

Quote from: Wingnut on September 13, 2021, 12:26:14 am

Com'n man. Fear is how these ass hole roll.

I'm not liking the wave that's coming from area of Africa....never a good sign for FL...60% chance of developing.

Wingnut · « **Reply #12 on:** September 13, 2021, 02:05:46 am »

Quote from: libertybele on September 13, 2021, 02:02:53 am

I'm not liking the wave that's coming from area of Africa....never a good sign for FL...60% chance of developing.

Don't let your heart be troubled.

libertybele · « **Reply #13 on:** September 13, 2021, 02:07:33 am »

Quote from: catfish1957 on September 13, 2021, 01:10:43 am

7Pm Advisory- T.S. Nicholas-
Tropical Storm Nicholas Intermediate Advisory Number 2A...corrected
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL AL142021
700 PM CDT Sun Sep 12 2021

Corrected Tropical Storm Watch area

...NICHOLAS MOVING LITTLE AT THIS TIME...
...EXPECTED TO HEAD FOR THE TEXAS COAST LATER TONIGHT AND MONDAY...

SUMMARY OF 700 PM CDT...0000 UTC...INFORMATION
----------------------------------------------
LOCATION...22.5N 95.5W
ABOUT 170 MI...275 KM ESE OF LA PESCA MEXICO
ABOUT 260 MI...415 KM SSE OF MOUTH OF THE RIO GRANDE
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...40 MPH...65 KM/H
PRESENT MOVEMENT...N OR 360 DEGREES AT 2 MPH...4 KM/H
MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...1008 MB...29.77 INCHES

========================================================

[Again, with model trending, I am thinking this thing has a better and better chance of reaching Hurricane Strength by landfall.

To my fellow SE Texas, SW LA, and Coastal Bend TX briefers. I'd be preparing for a significant rain and flooding event in our areas.

Hopefully the area won't see a hurricane. Prayers up for fellow Briefers.

catfish1957 · « **Reply #14 on:** September 13, 2021, 02:43:25 am »

Quote from: libertybele on September 13, 2021, 02:02:53 am

I'm not liking the wave that's coming from area of Africa....never a good sign for FL...60% chance of developing.

They are calling it 93L. As expected this early, models have it all over the map. Instensity models only have 1 of 13 showing it reach T.S strength within 84 hours. So so far if there is any development, it will be gradual.

Of the three Model ensembles (1) The global has it doing a westward move, the other (2) GFS and GEPS show a more NW-ward track.... i.e fish storm. As we get late in Sept, we'll see more of these Cape Verde storms make that NW move, which should keep Floridans happy.

catfish1957 · « **Reply #15 on:** September 13, 2021, 03:12:46 am »

10 PM update....

Tropical Storm Nicholas Advisory Number 3
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL AL142021
1000 PM CDT Sun Sep 12 2021

...WATCHES AND WARNINGS EXTENDED NORTHEASTWARD...

SUMMARY OF 1000 PM CDT...0300 UTC...INFORMATION
-----------------------------------------------
LOCATION...22.5N 95.5W
ABOUT 170 MI...275 KM ESE OF LA PESCA MEXICO
ABOUT 260 MI...415 KM SSE OF MOUTH OF THE RIO GRANDE
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...40 MPH...65 KM/H
PRESENT MOVEMENT...N OR 360 DEGREES AT 2 MPH...4 KM/H
MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...1007 MB...29.74 INCHES

WATCHES AND WARNINGS
--------------------
CHANGES WITH THIS ADVISORY:

The Hurricane Watch has been extended eastward to Freeport Texas.

The Tropical Storm Warning has been extended eastward to High
Island Texas.

The Tropical Storm Watch has been extended eastward to Sabine Pass.

The Storm Surge Watch has been extended eastward to Rutherford
Beach Louisiana.

=============================================================

NHC has upped slightly the expected strenghth at landfall to 65 mph, precipitating Hurricane watches in parts of the Texas costal bend.
Still expected to be a major slow moving storm, and flooding will be the big story with Nicholas .

catfish1957 · « **Reply #16 on:** September 13, 2021, 12:39:07 pm »

Monday 13 Sep 2021 update.....
Tropical Storm Nicholas Intermediate Advisory Number 5A
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL AL142021
700 AM CDT Mon Sep 13 2021

...NICHOLAS MOVING ERRATICALLY JUST OFFSHORE THE NORTHEASTERN
COAST OF MEXICO...
...FLASH FLOODING, DANGEROUS STORM SURGE, AND GUSTY WINDS EXPECTED
ALONG THE SOUTHERN TEXAS COAST TODAY...

SUMMARY OF 700 AM CDT...1200 UTC...INFORMATION
----------------------------------------------
LOCATION...25.4N 96.9W
ABOUT 40 MI...65 KM SSE OF MOUTH OF THE RIO GRANDE
ABOUT 210 MI...335 KM S OF PORT OCONNOR TEXAS
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...60 MPH...95 KM/H
PRESENT MOVEMENT...NNW OR 345 DEGREES AT 5 MPH...7 KM/H
MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...1001 MB...29.56 INCHES

================================================

1. Model guidance have tightened. Expected landfall is near Matagora Bay tonight at about present or slightly strength. Some models had this at minimal hurricane force yesterday, but now that probabiluty is pretty remote. (Seeing 1-3%)
2. Path will be slow, and move generally North, then Northeastly, thorugh East Texas, and then through the Piney Woods of East Texas and Western Lousiana.
3. Again, just as has been expected through the discussion of this storm. Excessive Rainfall and Flooding will be the biggest story of this storm. Maps shows an expected 6-15" in a pretty wide swath of SE Texas and SW Louisiana.
4. Storm looks more symetrical versus yesterday, which might be a harbrinber of strengthening, but now Nicholas is too close to shore for any substantial likely intensification.
5. Overall convection is much more intense and concentrated than yesterday.
6. I can't repeat enough- Coastal Bend, East Texas, and Western Louisana Briefers.... Take needed precautions to prepare for an exceesive rainfall event.

catfish1957 · « **Reply #17 on:** September 13, 2021, 01:10:40 pm »

Radar imagery in the past hour is showing some strong concentric consolidation around Nicholas' COC. Not a good sign.

Almost looks like a "filled" eye.

catfish1957 · « **Reply #18 on:** September 13, 2021, 03:34:22 pm »

10 AM update....
BULLETIN
Tropical Storm Nicholas Advisory Number 6
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL AL142021
1000 AM CDT Mon Sep 13 2021

...NICHOLAS MOVING ERRATICALLY NORTHWARD JUST OFFSHORE THE
SOUTHERN COAST OF TEXAS...
...FLASH FLOODING, DANGEROUS STORM SURGE, AND GUSTY WINDS EXPECTED
ALONG PORTIONS OF THE SOUTHERN AND MIDDLE TEXAS COASTS TODAY...

SUMMARY OF 1000 AM CDT...1500 UTC...INFORMATION
-----------------------------------------------
LOCATION...26.4N 96.8W
ABOUT 45 MI...70 KM NE OF MOUTH OF THE RIO GRANDE
ABOUT 140 MI...225 KM S OF PORT OCONNOR TEXAS
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...60 MPH...95 KM/H
PRESENT MOVEMENT...N OR 5 DEGREES AT 12 MPH...19 KM/H
MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...1002 MB...29.59 INCHES

WATCHES AND WARNINGS
--------------------
CHANGES WITH THIS ADVISORY:

The Storm Surge Warning has been extended from San Luis Pass to
Sabine Pass including Galveston Bay.

The Hurricane Watch has been extended northeastward to San Luis
Pass, Texas.

The Tropical Storm Warning has been extended eastward to Sabine
Pass.
===============================================

1. Tropical Force winds are now reaching the coast of Texas near the Brownsville-Corpus coast
2. National Weather Service has for some reason dropped the total precipitation in warned area to just .6-10 inches, which kind of puzzling considering how slow this storm will be moving after it goes inland.
3. No change on probability of hurricane force winds... Generally 1-5% in Matagora Bay PortO'Connor area.
4. Precip wise this storm looks robust. (see below)

catfish1957 · « **Reply #19 on:** September 13, 2021, 09:09:03 pm »

4PM update
BULLETIN
Tropical Storm Nicholas Advisory Number 7
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL AL142021
400 PM CDT Mon Sep 13 2021

...NICHOLAS NOW MOVING NORTH-NORTHEASTWARD TOWARD THE CENTRAL
TEXAS COAST...
...FLASH FLOODING, STORM SURGE, AND GUSTY WINDS OCCURRING ALONG
PORTIONS OF THE CENTRAL AND UPPER TEXAS COASTS...

SUMMARY OF 400 PM CDT...2100 UTC...INFORMATION
----------------------------------------------
LOCATION...27.4N 96.4W
ABOUT 70 MI...110 KM S OF PORT OCONNOR TEXAS
ABOUT 85 MI...140 KM SSW OF MATAGORDA TEXAS
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...65 MPH...100 KM/H
PRESENT MOVEMENT...NNE OR 15 DEGREES AT 12 MPH...19 KM/H
MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...1000 MB...29.53 INCHES

===================================

1. Nicholas still a little stronger with sustained winds at 65mph. Still outside chance tonight, the storm could reach minimal hurricane strength before landfall tonight near Matagora Bay. 7% chance at last update.
2. Rainfall still expected to be excessive, but not as bad as was first thought. Widespead 6-10 inches in a swath from central coast bend of Texas, through SE TExas into western Louisana.
3. Though winds have increased, the satellite footprint is showing Nicholas to be a bit more ragged. Almost looking like the storm is weakening.

AllThatJazzZ · « **Reply #20 on:** September 14, 2021, 12:02:27 am »

IIRC, someone whose name I can't remember lives in Victoria. I hope everything's fine for him/her. I hate to deal with this storm (hope my fence holds up), but I'm so thankful it's not another Ida.

Elderberry · « **Reply #21 on:** September 14, 2021, 12:14:16 am »

Quote from: AllThatJazzZ on September 14, 2021, 12:02:27 am

IIRC, someone whose name I can't remember lives in Victoria. I hope everything's fine for him/her. I hate to deal with this storm (hope my fence holds up), but I'm so thankful it's not another Ida.

Victoria is in around a 10 - 20% flood risk area. They shouldn't have anything to worry about.

Elderberry · « **Reply #22 on:** September 14, 2021, 02:12:49 am »

LIVE Nicholas storm surge Matagorda TX

Streamed live 2 hours ago

https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=7uDhshLtVds

catfish1957 · « **Reply #23 on:** September 14, 2021, 03:16:39 am »

10 PM update
BULLETIN
Hurricane Nicholas Advisory Number 8
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL AL142021
1000 PM CDT Mon Sep 13 2021

...NICHOLAS BECOMES A HURRICANE...
...BRINGING HEAVY RAINS, STRONG WINDS, AND STORM SURGES TO PORTIONS
OF THE CENTRAL AND UPPER TEXAS COASTS...

SUMMARY OF 1000 PM CDT...0300 UTC...INFORMATION
-----------------------------------------------
LOCATION...28.4N 95.8W
ABOUT 20 MI...30 KM SE OF MATAGORDA TEXAS
ABOUT 45 MI...75 KM SW OF FREEPORT TEXAS
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...75 MPH...120 KM/H
PRESENT MOVEMENT...NNE OR 25 DEGREES AT 10 MPH...17 KM/H
MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...988 MB...29.18 INCHES

==========================================================

1. Nicholas in process of making landfall @ Matagora Bay as a minimim hurricane- 75 mph
2. Track will get ugly after landfalling and moving north east. When Nicholas becomes depression early Wednesday, it basically stalls for 48 hours in an area the NHC estimates between Orange, Texas and Lafayette, Louisiana.
3. Strong SW winds aloft are making where almost all the heavy convectuon is east or north east of the storm. Also aiding in this is the fact that there is a pretty large tongue of dray air west of the strom from about Del Rio to Texarkana. Some of that dry air is infiltating the circulation.
4. Based on this updated path, and slowing, I think the QPF's of 4 to 10 inches the next 5 days are understated. I see these going up at the 2 AM advisory
5. Main point I want to bring up, is I don't think our guard should be dropped preparing for flooding in the areas from Corpus to SE Louisana.

AllThatJazzZ · « **Reply #24 on:** September 14, 2021, 08:29:24 am »

Long, miserable night. Still more to go. Thank God it wasn't an Ida storm.