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Author Topic: Hurricane Ida Advisory Discussions, and Updates  (Read 6066 times)

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Offline catfish1957

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Re: T.S Hurricane Ida Advisory Discussions, and Updates
« Reply #50 on: August 28, 2021, 01:02:44 pm »
Quote from: Gefn on August 28, 2021, 12:42:42 pm
Just found this thread.

Heard New Orleans might get hit bad. I hope not.

NOLA is deep in the cone.  All depends on the path, and how strong Ida gets hitting the coast.  Based on NHC core wind estimates here are my guessimates of the extremes.

(1) Best Case Scenario- Far west path- Cone hits Vermillion Bay.  Winds they would see would be strong T.S ...  50-70 mph.  Storm surge of maybe 5-7 feet.  Rainfall-  ???  Really tough, since being on the dirty side of the storm estimates can be all over the map.  But they still would consideably less than a direct hit of just east of storm passing.

(2) Worst case scenario- Direct hit. That far inland as a Cat 4 at the coast?  115 mph to 120 mph is not out of the question.  Catastrophic damage much like what you saw last year in Lake Charles with Laura last year.  And of course that does not take in account if the levees don't hold.  Storm surge?  They are expecting 10-15 surge at the coast.  It could conceivably be near or a little less than that in NOLA.

And finally, when you check NHC's charts for wind probability for NOLA...  Here are the odds at the last advisory.

>39 MPH- 93% chance
>58 MPH- 67% chance
>74 MPH (Hurricane)- 39% chance



« Last Edit: August 28, 2021, 01:15:30 pm by catfish1957 »
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Re: T.S Hurricane Ida Advisory Discussions, and Updates
« Reply #51 on: August 28, 2021, 01:32:30 pm »
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Offline Gefn

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Re: T.S Hurricane Ida Advisory Discussions, and Updates
« Reply #52 on: August 28, 2021, 01:37:33 pm »
Quote from: catfish1957 on August 28, 2021, 01:02:44 pm
NOLA is deep in the cone.  All depends on the path, and how strong Ida gets hitting the coast.  Based on NHC core wind estimates here are my guessimates of the extremes.

(1) Best Case Scenario- Far west path- Cone hits Vermillion Bay.  Winds they would see would be strong T.S ...  50-70 mph.  Storm surge of maybe 5-7 feet.  Rainfall-  ???  Really tough, since being on the dirty side of the storm estimates can be all over the map.  But they still would consideably less than a direct hit of just east of storm passing.

(2) Worst case scenario- Direct hit. That far inland as a Cat 4 at the coast?  115 mph to 120 mph is not out of the question.  Catastrophic damage much like what you saw last year in Lake Charles with Laura last year.  And of course that does not take in account if the levees don't hold.  Storm surge?  They are expecting 10-15 surge at the coast.  It could conceivably be near or a little less than that in NOLA.

And finally, when you check NHC's charts for wind probability for NOLA...  Here are the odds at the last advisory.

>39 MPH- 93% chance
>58 MPH- 67% chance
>74 MPH (Hurricane)- 39% chance

Thanks @catfish1957

It won’t be another Katrina but it still can be bad.
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Offline catfish1957

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Re: T.S Hurricane Ida Advisory Discussions, and Updates
« Reply #53 on: August 28, 2021, 01:43:56 pm »
Quote from: Gefn on August 28, 2021, 01:37:33 pm
Thanks @catfish1957

It won’t be another Katrina but it still can be bad.

If the storm behaves like it is forecasted...yes.   OTOH, based on my worst case scenario, it could be considerably worse.
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Re: T.S Hurricane Ida Advisory Discussions, and Updates
« Reply #54 on: August 28, 2021, 02:04:59 pm »
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Re: T.S Hurricane Ida Advisory Discussions, and Updates
« Reply #55 on: August 28, 2021, 02:28:48 pm »
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Offline catfish1957

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Re: T.S Hurricane Ida Advisory Discussions, and Updates
« Reply #56 on: August 28, 2021, 02:51:39 pm »
Anyone ready for a tad of good tropical news?

Tropical Depression 10 has formed about 500-600 miles of the Lesser Antilles.

Why good news?  It's heading northward.  The great news is the Cape Verde season waves/TD/Storms are now seeing  lower latitude steering currents that are taking them to the North Atlantic instead of toward the Caribbean or U.S Atlantic coast.  Of course this could change, but for now I think the threat to the U.S. for Cape Verde storms has been  minizmized, maybe by at least 3 weeks to a month.   
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Offline catfish1957

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Re: T.S Hurricane Ida Advisory Discussions, and Updates
« Reply #57 on: August 28, 2021, 03:02:37 pm »
10 AM advisory....

NHC has honed in to a tighter cone.  Hurricane watches have been discontinued from Intercoastal to Cameron.  Hurricane warnings now from Intercoastal to LA/MS border.  Expected strength at landfall 130 mph.  One interesting tidbit from the last advisory is that when Ida landfalls, they only expect the field of hurricane force winds to be 60 miles in diameter.  To me that seems alwfully small for a Catergory 4 storm.

BULLETIN
Hurricane Ida Advisory Number   9
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL       AL092021
1000 AM CDT Sat Aug 28 2021

...IDA EXPECTED TO BEGIN RAPIDLY INTENSIFYING SOON...
...PREPARATIONS TO PROTECT LIFE AND PROPERTY SHOULD BE RUSHED TO
COMPLETION TODAY IN THE WARNING AREA ALONG THE NORTHERN GULF
COAST...


SUMMARY OF 1000 AM CDT...1500 UTC...INFORMATION
-----------------------------------------------
LOCATION...24.8N 86.1W
ABOUT 350 MI...565 KM SSE OF THE MOUTH OF THE MISSISSIPPI RIVER
ABOUT 435 MI...700 KM SE OF HOUMA LOUISIANA
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...85 MPH...140 KM/H
PRESENT MOVEMENT...NW OR 315 DEGREES AT 16 MPH...26 KM/H
MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...984 MB...29.06 INCHES


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Re: T.S Hurricane Ida Advisory Discussions, and Updates
« Reply #58 on: August 28, 2021, 03:37:53 pm »
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Offline catfish1957

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Re: T.S Hurricane Ida Advisory Discussions, and Updates
« Reply #59 on: August 28, 2021, 03:44:45 pm »
Quote from: mystery-ak on August 28, 2021, 03:37:53 pm

https://twitter.com/RyanMaue/status/1431636969419952133

That is an incredibly narrow cone this far out.  Kudos to the NHC if they got it right. 
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Re: T.S Hurricane Ida Advisory Discussions, and Updates
« Reply #60 on: August 28, 2021, 03:48:22 pm »
Daniel Chaitin
@danielchaitin7
·
1h
Hurricane #Ida could be a Category 5 storm before it makes landfall, according to AccuWeather
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Offline catfish1957

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Re: T.S Hurricane Ida Advisory Discussions, and Updates
« Reply #61 on: August 28, 2021, 04:02:24 pm »
Quote from: mystery-ak on August 28, 2021, 03:48:22 pm
Daniel Chaitin
@danielchaitin7
·
1h
Hurricane #Ida could be a Category 5 storm before it makes landfall, according to AccuWeather

None of the 15 Intensity models predict it, but I guess anythings possible.

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Re: T.S Hurricane Ida Advisory Discussions, and Updates
« Reply #62 on: August 28, 2021, 04:49:14 pm »
Based on reports on the ground...lots of LA plates are moving like the Taliban taking Kabul coming into FL.  Hotels and AirbNb's sold out in the Panhandle over night. 
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Offline Right_in_Virginia

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Re: T.S Hurricane Ida Advisory Discussions, and Updates
« Reply #63 on: August 28, 2021, 05:49:00 pm »
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Offline catfish1957

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Re: T.S Hurricane Ida Advisory Discussions, and Updates
« Reply #64 on: August 28, 2021, 05:57:37 pm »
1 PM NHC Public Advisory.  Rapid strenghtening underway...  100 mph and growing.


BULLETIN
Hurricane Ida Intermediate Advisory Number 9A
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL       AL092021
100 PM CDT Sat Aug 28 2021

...IDA INTENSIFYING OVER THE GULF OF MEXICO...
...PREPARATIONS TO PROTECT LIFE AND PROPERTY SHOULD BE RUSHED TO
COMPLETION TODAY IN THE WARNING AREA ALONG THE NORTHERN GULF
COAST...


SUMMARY OF 100 PM CDT...1800 UTC...INFORMATION
----------------------------------------------
LOCATION...25.5N 86.6W
ABOUT 290 MI...470 KM SSE OF THE MOUTH OF THE MISSISSIPPI RIVER
ABOUT 380 MI...610 KM SE OF HOUMA LOUISIANA
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...100 MPH...155 KM/H
PRESENT MOVEMENT...NW OR 315 DEGREES AT 16 MPH...26 KM/H
MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...976 MB...28.82 INCHES


WATCHES AND WARNINGS
--------------------
CHANGES WITH THIS ADVISORY:

None

SUMMARY OF WATCHES AND WARNINGS IN EFFECT:

A Storm Surge Warning is in effect for...
* East of Rockefeller Wildlife Refuge Louisiana to the
Mississippi/Alabama border
* Vermilion Bay, Lake Borgne, Lake Pontchartrain, and Lake Maurepas

A Hurricane Warning is in effect for...
* Intracoastal City Louisiana to the Mouth of the Pearl River
* Lake Pontchartrain, Lake Maurepas, and Metropolitan New Orleans

A Storm Surge Watch is in effect for...
* Mobile Bay

A Tropical Storm Warning is in effect for...
* Cameron Louisiana to west of Intracoastal City Louisiana
* Mouth of the Pearl River to the Alabama/Florida border
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Offline Right_in_Virginia

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Re: T.S Hurricane Ida Advisory Discussions, and Updates
« Reply #65 on: August 28, 2021, 06:00:23 pm »
Hurricane Ida Updates: After Hitting Cuba, Storm Heads Toward U.S.
Ida is expected to strike Louisiana on Sunday, the anniversary of Hurricane Katrina, possibly as a Category 4 storm.

Read our latest coverage of Hurricane Ida.

Live updates here:  https://www.nytimes.com/live/2021/08/28/us/hurricane-ida-updates
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Re: T.S Hurricane Ida Advisory Discussions, and Updates
« Reply #66 on: August 28, 2021, 06:00:55 pm »
« Last Edit: August 28, 2021, 06:15:25 pm by mystery-ak »
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Offline Right_in_Virginia

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Re: T.S Hurricane Ida Advisory Discussions, and Updates
« Reply #67 on: August 28, 2021, 06:04:32 pm »
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Offline Right_in_Virginia

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Re: T.S Hurricane Ida Advisory Discussions, and Updates
« Reply #68 on: August 28, 2021, 06:06:19 pm »
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Offline Right_in_Virginia

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Re: T.S Hurricane Ida Advisory Discussions, and Updates
« Reply #69 on: August 28, 2021, 06:07:12 pm »
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Offline Right_in_Virginia

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Re: T.S Hurricane Ida Advisory Discussions, and Updates
« Reply #70 on: August 28, 2021, 06:09:49 pm »
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Offline Right_in_Virginia

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Re: T.S Hurricane Ida Advisory Discussions, and Updates
« Reply #71 on: August 28, 2021, 06:11:53 pm »
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Offline Right_in_Virginia

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Re: T.S Hurricane Ida Advisory Discussions, and Updates
« Reply #72 on: August 28, 2021, 06:13:30 pm »
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Re: T.S Hurricane Ida Advisory Discussions, and Updates
« Reply #73 on: August 28, 2021, 06:14:43 pm »
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Offline Right_in_Virginia

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Re: T.S Hurricane Ida Advisory Discussions, and Updates
« Reply #74 on: August 28, 2021, 06:15:36 pm »
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