Author Topic: Hurricane Ida Advisory Discussions, and Updates  (Read 6042 times)

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Offline libertybele

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Re: T.S Hurricane Ida Advisory Discussions, and Updates
« Reply #25 on: August 27, 2021, 09:16:33 pm »
Oh no!  Louisiana's got a monster coming at her!  I hope people are able to evacuate.  A Cat 4 packs a powerful punch   -- with LA there's always the concern of major storm surge as well.

Hurricane Ida's strength forces mandatory evacuations in Louisiana as Biden declares state of emergency

https://www.foxnews.com/us/hurricane-idas-strength-forces-mandatory-evacuations-in-louisiana
Romans 12:16-21

Live in harmony with one another; do not be haughty, but associate with the lowly, do not claim to be wiser than you are.  Do not repay anyone evil for evil, but take thought for what is noble in the sight of all.  If it is possible, so far as it depends on you, live peaceably with all…do not be overcome by evil, but overcome evil with good.

Offline catfish1957

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Re: T.S Hurricane Ida Advisory Discussions, and Updates
« Reply #26 on: August 27, 2021, 09:16:52 pm »
BNO News
@BNONews
·
31s
BREAKING: Ida forecast to reach Louisiana as a major category 4 hurricane - NHC

Sure hope authorites are rushing to completion evacuation of lower parishes near the coast.
I display the Confederate Battle Flag in honor of my great great great grandfathers who spilled blood at Wilson's Creek and Shiloh.  5 others served in the WBTS with honor too.

Offline libertybele

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Re: T.S Hurricane Ida Advisory Discussions, and Updates
« Reply #27 on: August 27, 2021, 09:28:24 pm »
Sure hope authorites are rushing to completion evacuation of lower parishes near the coast.


Looks like MS and AL are going to be impacted as well.  Looks like the FL panhandle may see TS winds and rain. 

« Last Edit: August 27, 2021, 09:32:08 pm by libertybele »
Romans 12:16-21

Live in harmony with one another; do not be haughty, but associate with the lowly, do not claim to be wiser than you are.  Do not repay anyone evil for evil, but take thought for what is noble in the sight of all.  If it is possible, so far as it depends on you, live peaceably with all…do not be overcome by evil, but overcome evil with good.

Offline Kamaji

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Re: T.S Hurricane Ida Advisory Discussions, and Updates
« Reply #28 on: August 27, 2021, 09:29:26 pm »
Am I correct in assuming that this could be a serious threat to the levees in LA?

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Re: T.S Hurricane Ida Advisory Discussions, and Updates
« Reply #30 on: August 27, 2021, 09:30:56 pm »
Am I correct in assuming that this could be a serious threat to the levees in LA?

Haven't they fixed those levees yet!
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Offline libertybele

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Re: T.S Hurricane Ida Advisory Discussions, and Updates
« Reply #31 on: August 27, 2021, 09:32:36 pm »
Am I correct in assuming that this could be a serious threat to the levees in LA?

A Cat 4.  Absolutely!  I'm hoping that it doesn't intensify as much as they think that it's going too.
« Last Edit: August 27, 2021, 09:33:56 pm by libertybele »
Romans 12:16-21

Live in harmony with one another; do not be haughty, but associate with the lowly, do not claim to be wiser than you are.  Do not repay anyone evil for evil, but take thought for what is noble in the sight of all.  If it is possible, so far as it depends on you, live peaceably with all…do not be overcome by evil, but overcome evil with good.

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Re: T.S Hurricane Ida Advisory Discussions, and Updates
« Reply #32 on: August 27, 2021, 09:39:24 pm »
Haven't they fixed those levees yet!

Those were "shovel ready jobs"    Oh well. 
I am just a Technicolor Dream Cat riding this kaleidoscope of life.

Offline catfish1957

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Re: T.S Hurricane Ida Advisory Discussions, and Updates
« Reply #33 on: August 27, 2021, 09:56:12 pm »
Am I correct in assuming that this could be a serious threat to the levees in LA?

From my experience this does have the potential to be a Cat 5.  There may be more significant more storm surge than either Katrina or Laura.
I display the Confederate Battle Flag in honor of my great great great grandfathers who spilled blood at Wilson's Creek and Shiloh.  5 others served in the WBTS with honor too.

Offline catfish1957

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Re: T.S Hurricane Ida Advisory Discussions, and Updates
« Reply #34 on: August 27, 2021, 09:57:27 pm »
Live feed has 5 parishes now with mandatory evacuation in Louisiana.  Didn't catch the names though.
I display the Confederate Battle Flag in honor of my great great great grandfathers who spilled blood at Wilson's Creek and Shiloh.  5 others served in the WBTS with honor too.


Offline Right_in_Virginia

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Offline libertybele

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Romans 12:16-21

Live in harmony with one another; do not be haughty, but associate with the lowly, do not claim to be wiser than you are.  Do not repay anyone evil for evil, but take thought for what is noble in the sight of all.  If it is possible, so far as it depends on you, live peaceably with all…do not be overcome by evil, but overcome evil with good.

Offline Right_in_Virginia

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Re: T.S Hurricane Ida Advisory Discussions, and Updates
« Reply #38 on: August 28, 2021, 02:02:19 am »
Ida slams Cuba as a Category 1 hurricane but when it makes landfall in the US it's expected to be Category 4
By Jason Hanna, Paul P. Murphy and Melissa Alonso, CNN
Updated 8:15 PM ET, Fri August 27, 2021

https://www.cnn.com/2021/08/27/weather/tropical-storm-ida-friday/index.html

Offline Right_in_Virginia

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Re: T.S Hurricane Ida Advisory Discussions, and Updates
« Reply #39 on: August 28, 2021, 02:03:59 am »

Offline dfwgator

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Re: T.S Hurricane Ida Advisory Discussions, and Updates
« Reply #42 on: August 28, 2021, 02:38:12 am »
The Dome is always a home away from home.

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Re: T.S Hurricane Ida Advisory Discussions, and Updates
« Reply #43 on: August 28, 2021, 03:25:17 am »
    Nawlins, If I'm not mistaken has 5 pumps to keep the citizens from learning how to swim, quickly and I guauntee you that 4 are broken and the ONE is intermittent.




                            Time to call the General out of retirement.
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Offline catfish1957

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Re: T.S Hurricane Ida Advisory Discussions, and Updates
« Reply #44 on: August 28, 2021, 03:51:11 am »
27 August 2021 Hurricane Ida advisory update...

Distinctive eye has formed in proxmity and interaction of the land of Cuba. Large field of convection around eye about 125 miles in diameter has enmassed around eye.  This is my first look at the storm since about 5pm my time, and I can tell you, I am jaw-dropped in that these do not look like the same storms.  Full thermal outflow at 3 quadrants.  Yes, Ida is intensifying rapidly it appears.

Cone has narrowed as expected as we get closer to landfall, and seems to have moved very slightly eastward.   Exact path seems to be aimed at right at Morgan City, Louisana, with cone itself stretching from White Lake eastward to Mouth of the Mississippi.

Outside a dying ULL just off shore of LA right now, the path looks clear of sheer.  Bathwater temps of near 90 F only add to the NHC expectation that this will be a Cat 4 storm, and potentially the rare Cat 5.  Now that it has been established that all the path environmental conditions are set for this to be a monster, now the big question is where wlll it go.  It's fate and direction (90%) will hinge on the strength of the high pressure centered in the Carolinas. How strong it ridges will dictate who feels the brunt.  If the high builds further, Lafayette will be the more likely target.  If it retracts?.....   We are looking at a more likely scenario of towards Gulfport, MS.

One last observation of sat data the past 5 minutes that may or may not be of consequence.....  Eye collapsed, and quickly appeared to reform about 20-30 miles due north of prior position.   Not 100% sure I am reading this exactly right, but if it truly is a true northward wobble of the COC, I can see an eastward shift in the next advisory. 

One last tool, I am using, and want to share with Cane Watching Junkies.  In my last updates i mentioned Lat/Long clicks.   Easy to monitor  this storm performance, is that just prior to a sharp northward turn 8-12 hours to landfall, the storm is forecasted to follow at true NW vector.  Meaning between now and then, if the storm behaves with forecast, you should see the same Lat and Long increases per each advisory.  Any deviation other way likely means that storm is deviated east/west of forecast. 

As many have stated before, if you are in harms way in the cone, get the hell out.  I have ridden out Cat 3 storms, and had wished I hadn't. Don't want to even guess what a Cat 4/5 would be like.

« Last Edit: August 28, 2021, 03:56:38 am by catfish1957 »
I display the Confederate Battle Flag in honor of my great great great grandfathers who spilled blood at Wilson's Creek and Shiloh.  5 others served in the WBTS with honor too.

Offline catfish1957

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Re: T.S Hurricane Ida Advisory Discussions, and Updates
« Reply #45 on: August 28, 2021, 10:31:15 am »
28 Aug 2021 4 AM update..

Storm hasn't really seemed to ramp up that much in the past 4 hours, but has separated itself from Cuba, and has resumed a pretty true NW track for now.  The NHC states that Ida is moving NW at 16 mph and has still sustained winds of 80 MPH.  If the track has moved it is minimal, with Morgan City being shown as target.  Cone of Uncertainty has been placed between Vermillion bay to near the mouth of the Mississippi River.  There doesn' appear to be any changes in previously reported watches or warnings.

Seems to be a tad less banding on the NW/SW quadrants , while having at the same time strongest convection .  One positive observation though, is that (though subject to change) the storm does npt particularly look very large yet, tropical storm winds do not extend more than 100 miles in any quadrant.

Needless to say, preparations should be pretty much be over in warned area..  There are parts of SE Louisana that may start to see conditons detiorate very late tonight, or early tommorrow morning.

« Last Edit: August 28, 2021, 10:36:37 am by catfish1957 »
I display the Confederate Battle Flag in honor of my great great great grandfathers who spilled blood at Wilson's Creek and Shiloh.  5 others served in the WBTS with honor too.

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Re: T.S Hurricane Ida Advisory Discussions, and Updates
« Reply #46 on: August 28, 2021, 12:14:16 pm »
Quote
Aug 28 (Reuters) - Hurricane Ida churned toward the U.S. Gulf coast on Saturday, forecast to gather strength in coming hours and prompting evacuations of flood-prone New Orleans neighborhoods and oil rigs in the Gulf of Mexico.

Forecasters said it could make U.S. landfall as a dangerous Category 4 storm on the five-step Saffir-Simpson scale, generating winds nearing 140 miles per hour (225 kph), heavy downpours and a tidal surge that could plunge much of the Louisiana shoreline under several feet of water.

Ida battered Cuba on Friday and by early Saturday it was carrying top winds of around 80 mph (129 kph) as it headed northwest, the National Hurricane Center said. The NHC expected the storm to intensify rapidly before coming ashore by late Sunday. ...
Full story at Reuters

On Friday, news outlets reported that the New Orleans mayor said there was no time to evacuate. They've known about this storm for days. What the heck.


https://twitter.com/FOX8NOLA/status/1431568786390495232
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Offline catfish1957

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Re: T.S Hurricane Ida Advisory Discussions, and Updates
« Reply #48 on: August 28, 2021, 12:42:32 pm »
7AM update...


BULLETIN
Hurricane Ida Intermediate Advisory Number 8A
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL       AL092021
700 AM CDT Sat Aug 28 2021

...IDA EXPECTED TO RAPIDLY INTENSIFY AS IT MOVES OVER THE
SOUTHEASTERN AND CENTRAL GULF OF MEXICO THROUGH TONIGHT...
...PREPARATIONS TO PROTECT LIFE AND PROPERTY SHOULD BE RUSHED TO
COMPLETION TODAY IN THE WARNING AREA ALONG THE NORTHERN GULF
COAST...


SUMMARY OF 700 AM CDT...1200 UTC...INFORMATION
----------------------------------------------
LOCATION...24.4N 85.7W
ABOUT 385 MI...620 KM SSE OF THE MOUTH OF THE MISSISSIPPI RIVER
ABOUT 440 MI...710 KM SSE OF NEW ORLEANS LOUISIANA
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...85 MPH...140 KM/H
PRESENT MOVEMENT...NW OR 315 DEGREES AT 16 MPH...26 KM/H
MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...985 MB...29.09 INCHES

===========================================================

Like I mentioned before we are are the point where you basically have to count N's and W's, versus what is expected on NHC track.  In the past 3 hours, the storm center clicked .4 increments North Lat, and .5 West long.  Since the path up to near landfall is pretty much true NW (315 degrees).  Putting it simply more N's than W's favors Lake Charles, More W's than N's favors Mississsippi.   

Still no distinictive open eye yet.  I expect that the change as this thing ramps up later today.  Infrared scan is showing sonce concentric banding, so that might be a precursor of some rapid strenghthening.  One highlight I don't hear any mets discussing though, is about the  ULL sititng off the south Louisiana coast.  That thing was supposed to die, or start dying while moving west.  Well that thing has about a 100 mile diameter area of convection right off the coast, and loops aren't showing it moving that awfully mucn west.  If it persists, and I could envision storm path slightly shifting westward.

Within the next few hours, we should see the first actual impact on U.S. with some of the early feeder bands (according to vis radar) approaching the AL coast.



« Last Edit: August 28, 2021, 12:44:07 pm by catfish1957 »
I display the Confederate Battle Flag in honor of my great great great grandfathers who spilled blood at Wilson's Creek and Shiloh.  5 others served in the WBTS with honor too.

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Re: T.S Hurricane Ida Advisory Discussions, and Updates
« Reply #49 on: August 28, 2021, 12:42:42 pm »
Just found this thread.

Heard New Orleans might get hit bad. I hope not.

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