Hurricane Ida Advisory Discussions, and Updates

[catfish1957]

There are three areas out in the Atlantic Basin that are being monitored for storm development

97L- Has good chance of development of a substantial storm, but will only impact mid and North Atlantic.   could potentially impact Bermuda
98L- Also a mid Atlantic storm that isn't expected.  What these guys call Fish Storms. 
99L- Area that we along the Gulf Coast might be needing to monitor, especially next week.

1st the Model information.  This area and 97L (IMO due to time of year and climatoglical history) both will likely become Ida and Julian,  Who gets named first depends on which reaches Tropical Storm Strength first. (39 mph susatained winds)



Even though these early model runs show a tendency of focus on Lousiana coast.  Absolutely do not put any faith in that.  The entire U.S Gulf Coast should be monitoring 99l for its path and strengthening.

Model data on intensity....   This is one that worries me most early on here.  I have found that the HWFI, if I had to pick is the most accuate of these.  OTOH, 6 of the other 7 have strength at tropical storm or Cat 1 strength. HWFI is the outlier, but it has predicted other storms well.  All the models have a landfall pretty well clustered on or  about 132 hours from now



 

[catfish1957]

8AM NHC Update....
000
ABNT20 KNHC 251138
TWOAT

Tropical Weather Outlook
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL
800 AM EDT Wed Aug 25 2021

For the North Atlantic...Caribbean Sea and the Gulf of Mexico:

A broad area of low pressure is expected to form over the
southwestern Caribbean Sea during the next day or so from a tropical
wave currently located over northwestern Colombia and the
south-central Caribbean Sea. Environmental conditions are forecast
to be conducive for development, and a tropical depression is likely
to form late this week or over the weekend while the system moves
west-northwestward to northwestward over the northwestern Caribbean
Sea. The disturbance is expected to move near or across the Yucatan
Peninsula of Mexico on Saturday, and move into the western Gulf of
Mexico by Sunday where conditions could be favorable for additional
development to occur.
* Formation chance through 48 hours...medium...40 percent.
* Formation chance through 5 days...high...80 percent.

[catfish1957]

Wednesday afternoon update points....

(1) Seems the models are becoming more consitent  at pointing this thing toward the western Gulf (>90W Longitude).  A few outliers though, with scatter generally from a point eastward from Palacios to the Mouth of the Mississippi.  In most cases a 990 mb T.S. to a 960 mb Cat 1 hurricane

(2) Good news on how the models are handling the strenghening.  About half at Cat 1, half at T.S.

(3) Last 8 hours shows some better organization.  I think this thing gets named within 24 hours.

(4) Entire gulf should still monitor progress of this storm, maybe into early next week.

[libertybele]

Louisiana, Mississippi??

[catfish1957]

Louisiana, Mississippi??

For certain, likely somewhere along the gulf coast, considering met maps, (lows, highs, troughs, steering)   

Based on this exact moment's model data?  Somewhere between Palacios, TX and NOLA. As a T.S or Cat 1 storm.

But also realize these models in these early runs are real squirrelly.  Conceivably they could all be aiming for Miami as a Cat 5 by tomorrow.

[catfish1957]

Thursday Morning Update on Invest 99L

(1) Seems there is a lot more convection this morning with the system, but also seems more elongated to the north and west.  IR, Visible, and water loops all show some circulation, but I for one, can't find a COC (Center of circulation) defined enough to truly believe that a depression has formed.  Understand the Hurricane HUnters will be investigating later today.  In any case 4AM has passed, and the NHC still has this as a wave.

(2) Model Data on storm direction. Pretty strong and consitient this far out and early.  Outside 2 CLP outliers, the models have target in a about a 180 mile stretch from McFaddin Beach Texas (near Port Arthur) to the Louisiana/ Mississippi Border only 5days out.

(3) As far as strength at landfall, 11 of the 13 models have the storm at T.S or Cat 1.  But again, the often reliable HWFI shows it potentially reaching Cat 4. All seeming and peaking at about the 96 hour point. 

(4) Looking at the Gulf, water temps are very conducive (mostly upper '80's) development.  Sheer and circulation patterns in the gulf are pretty tame right now too, so I don't see sheer as much of a factor if the storm gets organized.  Continental High Pressure has also eased, so I don't think there is much from keeping this storm from turning north, like Grace last week.

(5) At least at this very moment, with pretty strong model agreement, IMO interests in Western Gulf, say from about Corpus Christi to Pensacola FL should keep on top of this potential storm.  And a disclaimer....   Predicting hurricanes is perilous, and can have huge errors in estmating future location and strength.  We had an example last week.  Last Friday night, almost all agencies expected Hurricane Grace to reach the Mexican coast.  But the storm rapidly strenghthedn overnight into a near Cat 4 storm, and slammed the Mexican beach near Vera Cruz with sustained 125 mph winds. 

[catfish1957]

Seeing good reports from Mets that the two model groups that the two model groups Euro and GFS are coming into closer agreement.  Biggest questions is around storm initialization. 

Right now the we are seeing somewhat of an unexpected drift north of the cluster of convection.  Where the storm forms exactly will have great impact where it lands.  A continual drift north I am thinking puts SE LA to FL more in play.  If forms soon, and drifts more westward, I expect SE TX and SW LA more in play.

At this exact moment, both models are close on the choice being the central to SE LA coast.

[catfish1957]

7 AM Update from the NHC.  IMO- Still not really seeing what I would call a strong center of circulation in an area maybe a 100 miles south of Jamaica.  Overall convection movement does still seem to have more a north than westward vector. There is a lot of debate right now around how strong and how influential the High over SC is right now.  It will likely be the biggest influence on the overall dircection of the storm. 

Tropical Weather Outlook...Corrected
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL
800 AM EDT Thu Aug 26 2021

Corrected 5-day formation probability for the second system

For the North Atlantic...Caribbean Sea and the Gulf of Mexico:

1. Showers and thunderstorms continue to show signs of organization in
association with a broad area of low pressure located over the
west-central Caribbean Sea about 150 miles south-southwest of
Jamaica.  Environmental conditions remain conducive for additional
development, and a tropical depression or tropical storm is
expected to form later today or tonight while the system moves
northwestward over the northwestern Caribbean Sea, reaching the
Cayman Islands tonight and western Cuba and the Yucatan Channel
Friday and Friday night.  Given the recent developmental trends,
Tropical Storm Warnings for the Cayman Islands and western Cuba
could be required later this morning, and an Air Force Reserve
reconnaissance aircraft is scheduled to investigate the system
this afternoon.  Regardless of development, locally heavy rainfall
and flooding are possible over portions of Jamaica and the Cayman
Islands today and tonight, and will likely spread across Cuba
and the Yucatan Peninsula on Friday.

The system is expected to enter into the Gulf of Mexico Friday night
and continue moving northwestward toward the central or northwestern
U.S. Gulf coast, potentially bringing dangerous impacts from storm
surge, wind, and heavy rainfall to portions of the coasts of Texas,
Louisiana, Mississippi, Alabama, and the Florida Panhandle by Sunday
and Monday.  However, uncertainty in the system's exact track and
intensity remains large since the low is just beginning to form. 
Interests in these areas should closely monitor the progress of this
system and ensure they have their hurricane plans in place. 
Additional information on this system, including gale warnings, can
be found in High Seas Forecasts issued by the National Weather
Service.   
* Formation chance through 48 hours...high...90 percent.
* Formation chance through 5 days...high...90 percent.

[catfish1957]

NHC has announced that 99L has been upgraded to Tropical Depression No. 9, and will very likely Ida later today.  MIght be jumping hte gun a few hours, but have adjusted the thread to reflect Storm name.

Here are the graphics and forecasts from the NHC..



WTNT24 KNHC 261444
TCMAT4

TROPICAL DEPRESSION NINE FORECAST/ADVISORY NUMBER   1
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL       AL092021
1500 UTC THU AUG 26 2021

CHANGES IN WATCHES AND WARNINGS WITH THIS ADVISORY...

THE GOVERNMENT OF THE CAYMAN ISLANDS HAS ISSUED A TROPICAL STORM
WARNING FOR THE CAYMAN ISLANDS...INCLUDING GRAND CAYMAN...LITTLE
CAYMAN...AND CAYMAN BRAC.

THE GOVERNMENT OF CUBA HAS ISSUED A TROPICAL STORM WARNING FOR THE
CUBAN PROVINCES OF MATANZAS...MAYABEQUE...HAVANA...ARTEMISA...PINAR
DEL RIO...AND THE ISLE OF YOUTH.

SUMMARY OF WATCHES AND WARNINGS IN EFFECT...

A TROPICAL STORM WARNING IS IN EFFECT FOR...
* CAYMAN ISLANDS
* CUBAN PROVINCES OF MATANZAS...MAYABEQUE...HAVANA...ARTEMISA...
PINAR DEL RIO...AND THE ISLE OF YOUTH

A TROPICAL STORM WARNING MEANS THAT TROPICAL STORM CONDITIONS ARE
EXPECTED SOMEWHERE WITHIN THE WARNING AREA WITHIN 36 HOURS.

INTERESTS ELSEWHERE IN CENTRAL AND WESTERN CUBA...IN THE NORTHERN
YUCATAN PENINSULA...AND ALONG THE NORTHERN U.S. GULF COAST SHOULD
MONITOR THE PROGRESS OF THIS SYSTEM.

TROPICAL DEPRESSION CENTER LOCATED NEAR 16.9N  79.2W AT 26/1500Z
POSITION ACCURATE WITHIN  40 NM

PRESENT MOVEMENT TOWARD THE NORTHWEST OR 325 DEGREES AT  11 KT

ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE 1005 MB
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS  30 KT WITH GUSTS TO  40 KT.
WINDS AND SEAS VARY GREATLY IN EACH QUADRANT.  RADII IN NAUTICAL
MILES ARE THE LARGEST RADII EXPECTED ANYWHERE IN THAT QUADRANT.

REPEAT...CENTER LOCATED NEAR 16.9N  79.2W AT 26/1500Z
AT 26/1200Z CENTER WAS LOCATED NEAR 16.4N  79.0W

FORECAST VALID 27/0000Z 18.2N  80.4W
MAX WIND  35 KT...GUSTS  45 KT.
34 KT... 60NE  40SE   0SW  60NW.

FORECAST VALID 27/1200Z 20.3N  82.0W
MAX WIND  45 KT...GUSTS  55 KT.
34 KT... 80NE  50SE  20SW  60NW.

FORECAST VALID 28/0000Z 22.5N  83.9W...OVER WESTERN CUBA
MAX WIND  55 KT...GUSTS  65 KT.
50 KT... 30NE   0SE   0SW   0NW.
34 KT... 90NE  60SE  40SW  70NW.

FORECAST VALID 28/1200Z 24.4N  86.0W...OVER SOUTHEASTERN GULF
MAX WIND  65 KT...GUSTS  80 KT.
64 KT... 20NE  20SE   0SW  20NW.
50 KT... 40NE  40SE  30SW  40NW.
34 KT...110NE  80SE  60SW  90NW.

FORECAST VALID 29/0000Z 26.1N  88.1W
MAX WIND  80 KT...GUSTS 100 KT.
50 KT... 50NE  50SE  30SW  50NW.
34 KT...130NE 110SE  60SW 110NW.

FORECAST VALID 29/1200Z 27.7N  90.0W
MAX WIND  95 KT...GUSTS 115 KT.
50 KT... 50NE  50SE  30SW  50NW.
34 KT...140NE 130SE  70SW 120NW.
Z

[catfish1957]

The 1pm CDT advisory is out.  No change in windspeed (35mph).  Storm has moved from 16.9 N 79.2 W  to 17.5 N 79.5 W.  I do not believe that the storm is moving that dramatically NNW, but I am still thinking future Ida is still getting its footing on initialization before resuming on its expected WNW/NW track.

There is one point that makes this COC relocation important though.  When this point is added to the models, I think it will possibly result in an eastward shift of the cone of uncertainty.  Obviously, our FL Briefers are aware that these projected paths can change.

BULLETIN
Tropical Depression Nine Intermediate Advisory Number 1A
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL       AL092021
200 PM EDT Thu Aug 26 2021
 
...TROPICAL DEPRESSION EXPECTED TO STRENGTHEN OVER THE NORTHWESTERN
CARIBBEAN SEA...
...AIR FORCE RESERVE RECONNAISSANCE AIRCRAFT EN ROUTE...
 
 
SUMMARY OF 200 PM EDT...1800 UTC...INFORMATION
----------------------------------------------
LOCATION...17.5N 79.5W
ABOUT 95 MI...155 KM SW OF NEGRIL JAMAICA
ABOUT 165 MI...270 KM SE OF GRAND CAYMAN
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...35 MPH...55 KM/H
PRESENT MOVEMENT...NW OR 325 DEGREES AT 13 MPH...20 KM/H
MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...1005 MB...29.68 INCHES
 

[catfish1957]

4PM Thursday NHC Advisory for TD 9/ Future Ida.....

As I mentioned that this initiaization of a more NNW vector has overall impacted the place of cone.  Supposed storm center is still per report moving more NNW than NW.  This IMO has resulted in the shift eastward of the Cone.  Landfall now is expected near Houma Sunday afternoon, with the cone reaching from TX/LA border to MS/AL border.  This is about a 50-80 mile shift.  Expected strength has not changed...  105 mph at landfall, a strong Cat 2.

Not that I am a beleiver of model trends, but if we keep seeing this more NNW-ward move, I fully expect to see the FL panhandle included in the Cone of upcoming advisories.

Models- (See 1st post..it autoupdates) have really tightened up around a SE La. landfall, with a few outliers toward MS/AL

[catfish1957]

Hurricane Hunters have found 40 mph winds in the circulation.  As of 5 pm the NHC has offically upgraded TD 9 to Tropical Storm Ida.

[AllThatJazzZ]

@catfish1957

I really appreciate this map. Looks like we're going to luck out on this one.

[catfish1957]

@catfish1957

I really appreciate this map. Looks like we're going to luck out on this one.

Outside the cone at this point too, (barely).  OTOH, seems the poor folks in La., just can't seem to buy a break.

Not much more to report on 10 pm advisory, except Hurricane Watches have been posted from Cameron, La to MS/AL border, and Tropical Storm watch from AL/MS border to AL/FL border

[catfish1957]

Friday, August 27 7:00 am update....

My sat links aren't working (maybe high traffic), so I am not getting a read on the IR, Visible, and Water Loops to give my trend thoughts.

What I can tell you is that Ida has strengthed and now is a mid level Tropical Storm with 60 mph sustained winds,  The storm does seem to be following the expected NW coast.  This 315 degreeish (NW) vector is expected to continue (at this moment) until the storm approaches the coast, which then will start to veer north, then NNE within a few hundred miles after landfall.  The point of the most recent updates, is that now Ida is expected to reach Major Hurricane status with 115 mph winds just south of around Houma/Morgan City.

The overall path and  watches has not changed much since last night.  With Hurricane Watches from Cameron, LA to the MS/AL border, and Tropical Storm Watches from MS/AL border to AL/FL border.  As far as time, NHC sees the the eye reaching the LA coast sometimes late afternoon Sunday, with conditions detiorating late Saturday Night, or Sunday morning. 

[catfish1957]

10 a.m. update. Since NHC graphics autorefreshes, please look at previous NHC graphic for path/warnings.

Finally got to my satelitte loops and Ida is really looking stronger.  In fact I could find some minor evidence of spiraling band in the NW quadrant of the COC. Overall concentrated convection field has doubled in size in the past 10-12 hours Sustained winds are at 65 mph and very likely strenghtening as it approaches the SW coast of Cuba. Cone itself has not moved in over 12 hours.  Just shows how well the models are handling this storm thus far. And pretty much all of them run from about Pecan Island to the MS coast.

IMO...  Everyone from SE Texas to FL panhandle should keep a close eye on the storm.  Those in the cone should be rushing to completion their hurricane preparations.  This is now forecasted at 120 mph at landfall, and that windspeed could increase.  There is pretty much 90 degree bathwater throughout the northern GOM.

[mystery-ak]

Governor Of Louisiana Declares State Of Emergency As Tropical Storm Ida Intensifies

Louisiana Gov. John Bel Edwards declared a state of emergency as Tropical Storm Ida makes its way toward the Gulf coast.

The storm, which has triggered hurricane watches in parts of the state, is gaining strength and could make landfall as soon as Sunday, the governor said in a press release.

“Unfortunately, all of Louisiana’s coastline is currently in the forecast cone for Tropical Storm Ida, which is strengthening and could come ashore in Louisiana as a major hurricane as Gulf conditions are conducive for rapid intensification,” Edwards said.

“Now is the time for people to finalize their emergency game plan, which should take into account the ongoing COVID-19 pandemic,” he added.

more
https://dailycaller.com/2021/08/27/governor-louisiana-state-of-emergency-tropical-storm-ida/

[mystery-ak]

https://twitter.com/RyanMaue/status/1431320221256671238

[mystery-ak]

https://twitter.com/NWSLakeCharles/status/1431332053165948935

[Kamaji]

Wow.  I hope everyone in the path of that thing takes precautions.  God bless.

[dfwgator]

And knowing this Administration, folks in the Gulf better pretty much assume, they are on their own.

[rustynail]

The Trump flood of 21.

[catfish1957]

Ida now a hurricane, and is approaching Cuba at quicker forward speed.

Am seeing some models trending westward.  NHC  I think has compensated and adjust landfall from Houma to to near Pecan Island in most recent forecast updates. 

To my fellow SE Texans, I don't think we are 100% out of the woods yet.  Last year the Bermuda high was understated, and we starting seeing the Laura's path trend westward, and before we knew it in about 36 hours the path had changed from near NOLA to SW Louisiana.

Really critical will be how and where Ida gets spit out after interacting with Cuba. I personally am parsing lat/long clicks to think about where it is going, and adjusting incrementally  Depending on that interaction, Ida may come out ragged enough that center may need reinitalization.  Based on my looking at Sat data, finding a COC is getting a little tough based on the storms interaction with land nearby. 

[catfish1957]

Thursday August 27th NHC update.


BULLETIN
Hurricane Ida Advisory Number   6
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL       AL092021
500 PM EDT Fri Aug 27 2021

...CENTER OF IDA APPROACHING WESTERN CUBA...
...STORM SURGE AND HURRICANE WARNINGS ISSUES FOR PORTIONS OF THE
NORTHERN GULF COAST...


SUMMARY OF 500 PM EDT...2100 UTC...INFORMATION
----------------------------------------------
LOCATION...22.1N 83.2W
ABOUT 45 MI...70 KM NW OF THE ISLE OF YOUTH
ABOUT 90 MI...145 KM SW OF HAVANA CUBA
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...80 MPH...130 KM/H
PRESENT MOVEMENT...NW OR 320 DEGREES AT 15 MPH...24 KM/H
MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...985 MB...29.09 INCHES

Previous Watches have been been upgraded to Warnings.

[mystery-ak]

BNO News
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BREAKING: Ida forecast to reach Louisiana as a major category 4 hurricane - NHC