Trying To See If California’s Energy Plans Add Up
8 hours ago
From the MANHATTAN CONTRARIAN
August 10, 2021/ Francis Menton
A couple of weeks ago (July 29) I had a post titled “A Little Arithmetic: The Cost Of A Solar-Powered Grid Without Fossil Fuel Back-up.” In that post I did some simple calculations based on California’s current electricity usage and output from its existing solar generating facilities to figure out how much they would need in the way of solar panels and batteries to get through a low-output stretch in the winter without any fossil fuel assistance. Since for solar energy the “low-output stretch” is essentially everything from September 21 to March 21, I calculated that they would need roughly something in the range of 54,000 GWH of grid-scale battery storage, which at current prices would run around $10 trillion — assuming that someone could in the meantime invent the grid-scale batteries for this purpose that could store thousands of GWHs of energy for as much as a full year until needed.
In another recent post on the same subject — “California’s Zero Carbon Plans: Can Anybody Here Do Basic Arithmetic?” May 11, 2021 — I did a similar calculation with somewhat different assumptions (this time bringing both wind and solar into the mix), and came up with a rough figure for the cost of the needed additional storage of about $6.7 trillion. As huge as those cost figures may be, neither the May 11 nor the July 29 calculations accounted for the yet additional costs associated with loss of power during storage periods that would be up to a full year in length. Also, neither calculation took into account any margin that would be advisable in case of a year of unusually low sun and/or wind.
https://wattsupwiththat.com/2021/08/13/trying-to-see-if-californias-energy-plans-add-up/
