Tropical storm warning issued for Florida Keys, with Fred expected to gain strength

[Elderberry]

 South Florida Sun Sentinel By Keven Lerner and David Fleshler Aug 13, 2021

A tropical storm warning went up for the Florida Keys Friday, as Tropical Depression Fred skimmed the northern coast of Cuba on its way to open water, the National Hurricane Center said Friday morning.

Fred’s winds remained 35 mph, below the threshold for a tropical storm, the hurricane center said in its 8 a.m. update. But it’s expected to regain tropical storm strength later today, with winds of 40 mph, and reach a maximum wind speed of 50 mph by Sunday as it moves up the Gulf of Mexico.

The warning, which means tropical storm conditions are expected within 36 hours, covers Key Largo to the Dry Tortugas and Florida Bay. A tropical storm watch, which means tropical storm conditions are possible within 48 hours, covers the southwest coast of Florida from Englewood, just south of Sarasota, through the Keys.

Tropical storm conditions could start Friday night and go into Saturday.

At 8 a.m., Fred was 315 miles east-southeast of Key West with maximum sustained winds at 35 mph. It was moving west-northwest at 10 mph.

The map of possible paths for the storm’s center moved South Florida outside the cone of concern, with the storm now expected to head up Florida’s Gulf coast. But South Florida could still feel the effects of high winds and heavy rain, with the region at risk of flooding Saturday.

More: https://www.sun-sentinel.com/news/weather/hurricane/fl-ne-tropical-storm-fred-florida-gulf-friday-20210813-673koz74ijaqljlb4t4pid23pi-story.html

[catfish1957]

All models are forecasting a northward turn towards the panhandle.  OTOH, as a nuts and bolts observer, it sure seems strange since there is strong high pressure over AL, GA. I wouldn't be totally shocked if this thing trends more westward that NHC is prognosticating.

If the storm trends more towards the central gulf, I also expect this thing to strengthen to hurricane status too.

[libertybele]

Fred is likely to hit Florida as a tropical storm

Grace could be much stronger than Fred

And Fred isn't the only Atlantic storm drawing attention.
"Kind of like everyone's favorite player is the backup quarterback, many are already watching the next disturbance behind Fred," CNN meteorologist Brandon Miller said. "Located in the Central Atlantic, the National Hurricane Center has a high percentage -- 70% -- chance of it forming into Tropical Storm Grace by the end of the weekend."

This may be the next hurricane of a season predicted to be above-average, computer forecast models suggest. ........

https://www.cnn.com/2021/08/13/weather/fred-storm-florida/index.html

[catfish1957]

Fred is likely to hit Florida as a tropical storm

Grace could be much stronger than Fred

And Fred isn't the only Atlantic storm drawing attention.
"Kind of like everyone's favorite player is the backup quarterback, many are already watching the next disturbance behind Fred," CNN meteorologist Brandon Miller said. "Located in the Central Atlantic, the National Hurricane Center has a high percentage -- 70% -- chance of it forming into Tropical Storm Grace by the end of the weekend."

This may be the next hurricane of a season predicted to be above-average, computer forecast models suggest. ........

https://www.cnn.com/2021/08/13/weather/fred-storm-florida/index.html

The August and September "Cape Verde" seaon pretty much always creates a conveyor belt of storms.  On good years, the steering currents and met conditions draw these storms northwestard, and then northward into the central Atlantic.  So far this season the conveyor seems to be spitting these things out westward.  Which isn't  good news for the entire U.S. Gulf and Atlantic coast.