China and the Taliban Begin Their RomanceBeijing has its eyes set on using Afghanistan as a strategic corridor once U.S. troops are out of the way.By Derek Grossman, a senior defense analyst at the Rand Corp.
The Taliban delegation leaves the hotel after meeting with representatives of Russia, China, the United States, Pakistan, Afghanistan, and Qatar in Moscow on March 19.JULY 21, 2021, 11:45 AMU.S. President Joe Biden’s announcement that U.S. troops will be gone from Afghanistan by Aug. 31 will remove the most formidable obstacle to total Taliban takeover of the country. The Taliban claim they already control as much as 85 percent of Afghan territory. In the absolute best-case scenario, the Afghan government and the Taliban might share power, but that seems increasingly like wishful thinking.
For 20 years, the United States’ presence in Afghanistan, though not always appreciated, has nevertheless served as a predictable and stabilizing force. Now, the prospect of renewed Taliban rule has sparked major anxiety among the region’s powers. For example, earlier this month, Indian Minister of External Affairs S. Jaishankar visited Moscow and Tehran while Taliban representatives were in each city, raising questions about whether back-channel negotiations are ongoing. Moscow is preparing to leverage the six-nation Collective Security Treaty Organization to address potential trouble at the Afghan-Tajik border, which is being taken over by the Taliban on the Afghan side. As Pakistan’s relations with the Afghan government rapidly unravel, Islamabad appears to have negotiated a quid pro quo with the Taliban to reject U.S. bases on Pakistani territory in exchange for the Taliban’s assistance in combating Pakistan’s own Taliban-style militants, the organization known as Tehrik-i-Taliban. Meanwhile, the Shanghai Cooperation Organization, an economic and security grouping comprising China, India, Pakistan, Russia, and four Central Asian states, met last week with future Afghan stability at the top of their agenda.
Amid all of this regional angst, China is quietly attempting to secure its interests in post-U.S. Afghanistan. Beijing has reportedly been actively engaging with Kabul on construction of the Peshawar-Kabul motorway, which would connect Pakistan to Afghanistan and make Kabul a participant in China’s massive infrastructure and investment plan, the Belt and Road Initiative. Up until now, Kabul has resisted participation in the initiative to avoid getting on the wrong side of Washington. Beijing is also building a major road through the Wakhan Corridor—a slim strip of mountainous territory connecting China’s westernmost province of Xinjiang to Afghanistan—and onward to Pakistan and Central Asia, complementing its existing road network through the region. Once completed, these new thoroughfares should enable Beijing to pursue its goals of increased trade with the region and natural resource extraction in Afghanistan. According to a 2014 report, Afghanistan may possess nearly a trillion dollars’ worth of extractable rare-earth metals locked within its mountains.
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https://foreignpolicy.com/2021/07/21/china-taliban-afghanistan-biden-troop-withdrawal-belt-road-geopolitics-strategy/
