Gottlieb, Wen: CDC leak shows the vaccinated aren't the big Delta risk

[mystery-ak]

Gottlieb, Wen: CDC leak shows the vaccinated aren't the big Delta risk
Ed Morrissey Jul 30, 2021 10:41 AM ET

Has the COVID-19 “war” changed with the Delta variant, as the CDC’s leaked documents declared? Not really, former FDA commissioner Scott Gottlieb told CNBC’s Squawk Box this morning. Parsing out the data from the clickbait, Gottlieb points out that the vaccines make the kind of breakthrough transmission cited by this study relatively rare, although perhaps more asymptomatically prevalent than the CDC acknowledged before now.

Therefore, the fully vaccinated are not a big vector for transmission. Nor did people think that the unvaccinated could never transmit the virus in the first place. The big issue is the unvaccinated, who keep choosing to pose a risk to themselves and others, and masking the vaccinated won’t mitigate that risk:

https://twitter.com/ScottGottliebMD/status/1421100761455513603


Dr. Leana Wen also took a look at the data and reaches the same conclusion as Gottlieb. Wen has a different public-policy agenda for dealing with the implications, but the data makes it clear that the CDC is focusing on the wrong population:

https://twitter.com/DrLeanaWen/status/1421075561724645380

more
https://hotair.com/ed-morrissey/2021/07/30/gottlieb-wen-cdc-leak-shows-the-vaccinated-arent-the-big-delta-risk-n405632

[jmyrlefuller]

Dr. Gottlieb has probably been the closest to the "realist" camp among anybody that the media takes seriously, compared to the alarmist camp that seems to have taken over the CDC and NIH.

[Hoodat]

The big issue is the unvaccinated, who keep choosing to pose a risk to themselves and others, and masking the vaccinated won’t mitigate that risk:

Again, how does me not getting vaccinated posing a risk to you?  Unless of course your vaccine doesn't work.

[PeteS in CA]

Gottlieb and Wen are such a strange pair they'd probably never be bedfellows.

[Kamaji]

Again, how does me not getting vaccinated posing a risk to you?  Unless of course your vaccine doesn't work.

As a matter of principle?  Because, as an unvaccinated person, you are more likely to become infected, and more likely to develop a sufficient viral load, and more likely to transmit it to other people, and since no vaccine can ever be 100% effective, your greater ability to transmit the virus to other people means that you are a greater risk to both vaccinated and non-vaccinated people than are vaccinated people.

But that is not the question that matters.

In principle, you lose, but what matters is the practical question:  that is, do you, as an unvaccinated person, pose enough of a threat to other people, including vaccinated people, that you should be forced to do something - get a vaccine, or quarantine - that you don't want to do?

On that score, I think the answer is no, you are not a sufficient threat, even in your glorious unvaccinated state, to justify forcing you to take a vaccine you do not want, to force you to quarantine against your will, or to prevent you from going to places you want to go (e.g., the grocery store).

On the practical issue, you win.

The fact is, in all other aspects of life, we routinely accept that certain people can do their thing in public without significant restrictions despite the fact that they represent a materially higher risk of injury to others than, say, some other people do.

One group that comes readily to mind are young drivers.  Single males in their early twenties, in particular, present a materially higher risk of injuring others through their driving than, say, a well-trained professional driver who is married and in her early forties.  But that doesn't mean that we prevent twenty-something single men from driving, and it doesn't mean that we make professional driving courses mandatory for them.  We, as a society, simply accept the higher risk, and those individuals who do not wish to accept that risk must modify their own actions to minimize that risk.

And that's the way it should be.

Unfortunately, when it comes to COVID-19, we somehow managed to lose the rule of common sense.

[Hoodat]

As a matter of principle?  Because, as an unvaccinated person, you are more likely to become infected, and more likely to develop a sufficient viral load, and more likely to transmit it to other people, and since no vaccine can ever be 100% effective, your greater ability to transmit the virus to other people means that you are a greater risk to both vaccinated and non-vaccinated people than are vaccinated people.

When you take account of Bayes's theorem, you will find that the difference between vaccinated and unvaccinated is virtually the same.  The likelihood of a person coming in contact with me having a viral load is almost identical to their likelihood of coming in contact with a vaccinated person having a viral load.

In principle, you lose

By whose standard?  Yours, or mine?  Currently, there are less unvaccinated people dying from the Delta variant than there are vaccinated people.  So by that standard, my survivability is higher if I don't get vaccinated.

but what matters is the practical question:  that is, do you, as an unvaccinated person, pose enough of a threat to other people, including vaccinated people, that you should be forced to do something - get a vaccine, or quarantine - that you don't want to do?

On that score, I think the answer is no, you are not a sufficient threat, even in your glorious unvaccinated state, to justify forcing you to take a vaccine you do not want, to force you to quarantine against your will, or to prevent you from going to places you want to go (e.g., the grocery store).

On the practical issue, you win.

Makes sense.  And I happen to be a very practical person.

The fact is, in all other aspects of life, we routinely accept that certain people can do their thing in public without significant restrictions despite the fact that they represent a materially higher risk of injury to others than, say, some other people do.

That's how I feel about people who exercise, eat low fat diets, and don't smoke.  They pose a financial risk of injury to me because they will be draining much more money from the social security trust fund [sic] than the average American.  Maybe we can force them to eat bacon three times a day, smoke two packs of Marlboros, and ban them from exercising.

One group that comes readily to mind are young drivers.  Single males in their early twenties, in particular, present a materially higher risk of injuring others through their driving than, say, a well-trained professional driver who is married and in her early forties.  But that doesn't mean that we prevent twenty-something single men from driving, and it doesn't mean that we make professional driving courses mandatory for them.  We, as a society, simply accept the higher risk, and those individuals who do not wish to accept that risk must modify their own actions to minimize that risk.

And that's the way it should be.

Unfortunately, when it comes to COVID-19, we somehow managed to lose the rule of common sense.

You got that right.  Here are some simple rules:

• Wash hands frequently
  
  
• Don't touch your face.
  
  
• Get plenty of sunshine outdoors.
  
  
• Take Vitamin D and zinc supplements daily.
  
  
• Stay 6 ft away from anyone wearing a mask.
  
  
• Stay 6 ft away from anyone not wearing a mask.

[DefiantMassRINO]

The unvaccinated have chosen to let Nature run its course.  No reason they can't sign a DNR (do not resuscitate) order.  Why should medical professionals be inconvenienced by the avoidable negative outcome of another individual's choice to not be vaccinated?

[Restored]

Wash hands frequently

Don't touch your face.

Covid is generally not spread through contact. It enters through the lungs.

[240B]

Why isn't smoking banned?
Why isn't alcohol banned?
These pose 1000 X times the risk of hurting the user and others than COVID.

If the CDC and Biden are so goddam worried about the health of everybody, then why don't they mandate vitamin shots?
Why is this vaccine keeping them awake at night? When so many other things kill so many more people every hour.

Why the vaccine frenzy? What is it really all about?

[DefiantMassRINO]

I choose/consent to smoke tobacco.
I choose/consent to consume alcohol.
I do not choose/do not consent to contract an airborne pathogen.

Where's the harm in me starting a pig farm in a residential neighboorhood?  It's my property, my choice.  So what if the neighbors don't like the noise and the smell.  That's their issue, not mine.

So what if I decide to use my property to store hazardous chemicals?  Where's the harm?  It's not like the barrels could leak and contaminate the neighbors' well water.  If it does, so what.  They can buy bottled water.

If I decide to burn hazardous materials on my property, where's the harm?  If you don't want get cancer from air, no one is making you breathe.

If I allow my rabid pitbull to roam offleash, what's the big deal?  If you keep your children inside a fendced-in yard on your property, there's no issue.  So what if my rabid dog gives rabies to a skunk, and that rabid skunk goes on to bite your child?  It's your fault for not skunk-proofing your yard.

There's no law that says I have to be considerate to my neighbors.  If they don't like it, they can build walls around their properties or move.  They can't make me move.

[Hoodat]

Where's the harm in me starting a pig farm in a residential neighboorhood?  It's my property, my choice.  So what if the neighbors don't like the noise and the smell.  That's their issue, not mine.

Well, clearly the government should be able to come onto your property and inject all your pigs with pig-killer, thus eliminating the problem for your neighbors.

[Hoodat]

Why isn't smoking banned?

Smoking is not banned because it benefits the government if you get heart disease or cancer on your 65^th birthday and die soon after.

Come to think of it, it also benefits the government if you plant Covid patients inside nursing homes, infecting residents who die shortly after.

[240B]

I do not choose/do not consent to contract an airborne pathogen.

@DefiantMassRINO
I hate to be the one to burst your little bubble sweetcakes, but you breathe in airborne pathogens with every breath you take.

Masks do not stop a virus. Unlike a pig farm, viruses occur in nature with or without you or me. You inhale viruses all day long. But you are used to them and therefore they do not affect you, especially if you are vaccinated and I am vaccinated. If you 'choose' to be unvaccinated, then that is your choice and has nothing to do with me or with the government.

[Kamaji]

When you take account of Bayes's theorem, you will find that the difference between vaccinated and unvaccinated is virtually the same.  The likelihood of a person coming in contact with me having a viral load is almost identical to their likelihood of coming in contact with a vaccinated person having a viral load.


By whose standard?  Yours, or mine?  Currently, there are less unvaccinated people dying from the Delta variant than there are vaccinated people.  So by that standard, my survivability is higher if I don't get vaccinated.


Makes sense.  And I happen to be a very practical person.


That's how I feel about people who exercise, eat low fat diets, and don't smoke.  They pose a financial risk of injury to me because they will be draining much more money from the social security trust fund [sic] than the average American.  Maybe we can force them to eat bacon three times a day, smoke two packs of Marlboros, and ban them from exercising.


You got that right.  Here are some simple rules:

• Wash hands frequently
  
  
• Don't touch your face.
  
  
• Get plenty of sunshine outdoors.
  
  
• Take Vitamin D and zinc supplements daily.
  
  
• Stay 6 ft away from anyone wearing a mask.
  
  
• Stay 6 ft away from anyone not wearing a mask.

Very nice, but it doesn't undo the very basic fact that if you are unvaccinated, you are a greater threat to anyone you come into contact with than a vaccinated person. 

If that is the point you wish to take your stand on, then you lose.

That you don't like the idea is irrelevant.  Facts are facts.

[DefiantMassRINO]

I guess we let Natural Selection run its course and see whose left to vote in the 2022 election.

[Bigun]

Very nice, but it doesn't undo the very basic fact that if you are unvaccinated, you are a greater threat to anyone you come into contact with than a vaccinated person. 

Why? Your vaccine protects you doesn't it?

[Hoodat]

Very nice, but it doesn't undo the very basic fact that if you are unvaccinated, you are a greater threat to anyone you come into contact with than a vaccinated person. 

Absolutely positively false.

If that is the point you wish to take your stand on, then you lose.

So much for science.  And math.

If that is the point you wish to take your stand on, then you lose.

And freedom.

That you don't like the idea is irrelevant.  Facts are facts.

Facts?

HAHAHAHAHAHAHAHAHAHA
HAHAHAHAHAHAHAHAHAHA
HAHAHAHAHAHAHAHAHAHA
HAHAHAHAHAHAHAHAHAHA
HAHAHAHAHAHAHAHAHAHA
HAHAHAHAHAHAHAHAHAHA
HAHAHAHAHAHAHAHAHAHA

Let me know when you come up with some facts.  Because your speculation simply doesn't cut it.

[Hoodat]

I guess we let Natural Selection run its course and see whose left to vote in the 2022 election.

Which brings up another point.  If these liberals really believed that it was unvaccinated Trump voters that were dying like flies from this, they would be keeping their mouths shut.

[240B]

Why is the government ignoring illegal immigrants for vaccination?
One would think they would be the first priority.
Not only are illegals not the first priority for vaccination, they are not required to be vaccinated at all.
They are off the map in terms of the people the government wants to mandate vaccination.
Why is that? Why are illegals getting preferential treatment, when ordinary Americans face penalties?
If the government is so gung-ho about vaccinations, then vaccinate the illegals first!

[art.prout]

[jmyrlefuller]

I guess we let Natural Selection run its course and see whose left to vote in the 2022 election.

That's the only thing that's going to end this at this point. If eradication is out of the question, natural selection is going to get everyone eventually.

The CDC fails to answer the question of an endgame. We have been at this for 16 months and they're basically saying that we are right back where we started last year. We've already lost too much as it is. What is it going to take to get our lives back? Safely gather in large groups? Have personal intimacy? Because nothing has worked so far. If they can't answer that... then it needs to be disbanded, because if they can't control or prevent disease, it's a waste of borrowed money.

[Smokin Joe]

The unvaccinated have chosen to let Nature run its course.  No reason they can't sign a DNR (do not resuscitate) order.  Why should medical professionals be inconvenienced by the avoidable negative outcome of another individual's choice to not be vaccinated?

This assumes that you either get the jab or die. Nonsense.

A DNR means if they get electrocuted, they are done.
If they have a myocardial infarction, game over.


It covers a lot more than the virus.

In the instance of young people with no comorbidities, the vaccine may present more of a risk through myocarditis than COVID to a low risk group.

Bottom line is that this is a decision that the individual should make, on the basis of solid and uncensored information, and Americans aren't generally getting that from the Government, the Medical Establishment, the Media, or Social Media.

If you want the jabs, go for it. I have Ivermectin, zinc, get plenty of fresh air and sunshine, and have no comorbidities. I'll take my chances.

[Smokin Joe]

Which brings up another point.  If these liberals really believed that it was unvaccinated Trump voters that were dying like flies from this, they would be keeping their mouths shut.

[Smokin Joe]

Why is the government ignoring illegal immigrants for vaccination?
One would think they would be the first priority.
Not only are illegals not the first priority for vaccination, they are not required to be vaccinated at all.
They are off the map in terms of the people the government wants to mandate vaccination.
Why is that? Why are illegals getting preferential treatment, when ordinary Americans face penalties?
If the government is so gung-ho about vaccinations, then vaccinate the illegals first!

Well, not just that, but courtesy of the taxpayers, the illegals are being distributed all over the country.

If that isn't a superspreader event, what is? (not to mention the other diseases they may be carrying).