Expect a 10% or worse correction in U.S. stocks by mid-August, says this forecaster with a proven tr

[libertybele]

10%  ??  We're due for a market correction, and with runaway inflation and shortages of goods, I think we're likely to see a correction much, much worse than that.
Expect a 10% or worse correction in U.S. stocks by mid-August, says this forecaster with a proven track record

To be sure, predictions are a dime a dozen on Wall Street. But this one comes from Hayes Martin, president of investment advisory firm Market Extremes. I was introduced to Martin’s work several years ago and since then I’ve found his predictions of market turning points to be impressive. (For the record: Martin does not have an investment newsletter; my newsletter-tracking firm does not audit his investment performance.)

I devoted two columns to Martin’s forecasts over the past year, and both proved prescient. In May 2020, I concluded that “the stock market… is stronger than even the most bullish investors believe.” In January of this year, I wrote that the market was still “firing on all cylinders.”

In an interview on July 14, Martin said the U.S. stock market today is most definitely not firing on all cylinders. In fact, he said, the market’s internal health is now worse than at any time since October 2018. That was the beginning of a 20% decline in the S&P 500 SPX, -0.75% and a 26% decline in the small-cap Russell 2000 Index ..........................

https://www.marketwatch.com/story/expect-a-10-correction-in-u-s-stocks-by-mid-august-says-this-forecaster-with-a-proven-track-record-11626380633?mod=home-page

[Free Vulcan]

I have to admit I agree. The market is starting to look tired and wobbly.

The problem is the monetary effect. What it should do and what it will do might be two different things.

[cato potatoe]

Is anybody else reallocating for the short term?  My financial advisor sees a 10-20% pullback in equities, followed by a resumption of the bull market due to fed lunacy.

[IsailedawayfromFR]

Is anybody else reallocating for the short term?  My financial advisor sees a 10-20% pullback in equities, followed by a resumption of the bull market due to fed lunacy.

Wouldn't surprise me to see a 10,000 point drop.

Focusing on no new accumulations, value and dividend stocks make up bulwark, and keep lots of cash to ride it out

[Free Vulcan]

Wouldn't surprise me to see a 10,000 point drop.

Focusing on no new accumulations, value and dividend stocks make up bulwark, and keep lots of cash to ride it out

Right now the market looks like crap. Monetary effect not withstanding, I think we're very close to a big down move.

[libertybele]

Wouldn't surprise me to see a 10,000 point drop.

Focusing on no new accumulations, value and dividend stocks make up bulwark, and keep lots of cash to ride it out

Yes, dividend stocks; cash/gold on the side as a safety net.

I think 10% is conservative.  I'm going with 35-50%.

[catfish1957]

After living through '87, '00, '08, and '20 corrections, and it is my opinion that this bubble has more of an '00 feel to it, based on mad idiotic speculative market run up, with no fundemenatals backing up the rise.....  The early '70's ugliness was pretty much before my time, but it was unique (at least during the past 50 years), of being one ugly bleed that lasted almost 2 years.

Based on S & P as a reference point, here is the data:

'87-33.5%
'00-49.1%
'08-56.8%
'20-33.9%
'21- ??

I'd say the odds of having a near 50% correction are very high.  End of 3Q (October) has always been the psychological trigger for these events. And based on wreckless governemnt fiscal policy, I am also guessing this one is going to be a long one. Nothing positive is going right, right now, as far as equites sustained profits, and subsequently equity price.

As far as investment choices, anything outside land, precious metals, and things focusng on prepper areas is.....  likely going to get beat up badly

When it crash lands, then we can pick and choose some bargains.

[skeeter]

After living through '87, '00, '08, and '20 corrections, and it is my opinion that this bubble has more of an '00 feel to it, based on mad idiotic speculative market run up, with no fundemenatals backing up the rise.....  The early '70's ugliness was pretty much before my time, but it was unique (at least during the past 50 years), of being one ugly bleed that lasted almost 2 years.

Based on S & P as a reference point, here is the data:

'87-33.5%
'00-49.1%
'08-56.8%
'20-33.9%
'21- ??

I'd say the odds of having a near 50% correction are very high.  End of 3Q (October) has always been the psychological trigger for these events. And based on wreckless governemnt fiscal policy, I am also guessing this one is going to be a long one. Nothing positive is going right, right now, as far as equites sustained profits, and subsequently equity price.

As far as investment choices, anything outside land, precious metals, and things focusng on prepper areas is.....  likely going to get beat up badly

When it crash lands, then we can pick and choose some bargains.

what would you recommend one do with a 401k that wouldn’t involve getting pantsed by Uncle Sam?

[Free Vulcan]

I'm going to figure 15% initially, probably pretty quick.