Author Topic: 3 Things That Could Cause the Stock Market to Crash in the Second Half  (Read 567 times)

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Online catfish1957

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https://www.marketwatch.com/articles/stock-market-crash-risks-51625174065?mod=mw_latestnews

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Stocks have soared relentlessly this year. Several factors, however, have the potential to end the party.

The S&P 500 has had its second-best first half of a year since 1998, and it hasn’t shown many signs of letting up. The index ended June up 14.4% year to date, hitting several records during the month and posting another record close on Thursday.

Yet there are a couple of key risks that could turn all of that around, according to Nick Colas, co-founder of DataTrek.

First, there’s the possibility of an oil price shock, as the price of crude has shown little sign of cooling off. WTI crude oil is up 56% year to date and notched a new multi-year high Thursday—even amid growing expectations that OPEC will increase supply . If oil prices run hot enough, that could raise inflation to a level that—if sustained — could cause consumer demand to fall and that could surpass Federal Reserve expectations.

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The recent ultra run up of markets is insane.  Fundementals absolutley do not support a 35K DJIA, a 15K NASDAQ, or 4400 S & P long term. Article does not really touch on what I think will blow this house of cards over.  Trillions and Trillions of $ squandered by DC is going to come back in bite us big time.
 
I hope all our Briefers understand this, and have planned and adjusted accordingly.
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Offline rustynail

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'adjusted accordingly.'.......beans and bullets.

Offline IsailedawayfromFR

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An 11% earnings growth next year is still very impressive in itself.

I am still buying at this time.

And higher oil prices will only benefit oil and midstream companies where I have been focusing on since last year.
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Online Free Vulcan

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It mostly depends on inflation at this point. If it gets out of hand, that will pretty much spell the end.
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Online jmyrlefuller

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I only count two things in the article: oil price increases (yeah) and peaking earnings growth (sounds like someone wrapped too much up in Wall Street and not in the real world that drives macroeconomics).

More lockdowns and business shutdowns in the fall would be my lingering threat, in the event of vaccine failure. That's a huge Sword of Damocles over the economy. Then there's the end of any government stimulus/eviction moratoriums/etc. propping up the economy for the past several months.
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Offline Hoodat

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Three things that could cause the stock market to crash in the second half:

If a political party does not have its foundation in the determination to advance a cause that is right and that is moral, then it is not a political party; it is merely a conspiracy to seize power.

-Dwight Eisenhower-


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Offline libertybele

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Three things that could cause the stock market to crash in the second half:



They are well underway.
Romans 12:16-21

Live in harmony with one another; do not be haughty, but associate with the lowly, do not claim to be wiser than you are.  Do not repay anyone evil for evil, but take thought for what is noble in the sight of all.  If it is possible, so far as it depends on you, live peaceably with all…do not be overcome by evil, but overcome evil with good.