Author Topic: Hurricane Elsa, (including updates) (Read 3554 times)

Cyber Liberty · « **Reply #25 on:** July 03, 2021, 08:25:37 pm »

Quote from: Victoria33 on July 03, 2021, 08:19:59 pm

@Cyber Liberty

When I heard the storm was coming, I said out loud to myself, "What else can happen to these poor people." I wanted to "fix" it, but no one can "fix" this.

Nope. Thousands of family photos will be lost forever.

Wingnut · « **Reply #26 on:** July 03, 2021, 08:34:05 pm »

Quote from: Cyber Liberty on July 03, 2021, 08:25:37 pm

Nope. Thousands of family photos will be lost forever.

C'mon man. They be on the....you know.... the cloud thing.

Cyber Liberty · « **Reply #27 on:** July 03, 2021, 08:54:23 pm »

Quote from: Wingnut on July 03, 2021, 08:34:05 pm

C'mon man. They be on the....you know.... the cloud thing.

That will be of comfort to the people who had WW2 photos from Grandpa.

Victoria33 · « **Reply #28 on:** July 03, 2021, 11:10:09 pm »

Quote from: Cyber Liberty on July 03, 2021, 08:54:23 pm

That will be of comfort to the people who had WW2 photos from Grandpa.

@Cyber Liberty

I have a number of "tintype" pictures of my Mother's family. When son started to major in film, he took the tintypes to class so members could see what these are. Consider the rest in "quotes":

"Tintype photographs were popular for a relatively short time period, so it is fairly easy to determine an approximate date if you have tintypes in your family history collection. Tintypes were introduced in 1856 and were popular until about 1867. Because tintypes are a permanent photographic image, they may still be in good condition if they were stored properly over the years."

Cyber Liberty · « **Reply #29 on:** July 03, 2021, 11:46:13 pm »

Quote from: Victoria33 on July 03, 2021, 11:10:09 pm

@Cyber Liberty

I have a number of "tintype" pictures of my Mother's family. When son started to major in film, he took the tintypes to class so members could see what these are. Consider the rest in "quotes":

"Tintype photographs were popular for a relatively short time period, so it is fairly easy to determine an approximate date if you have tintypes in your family history collection. Tintypes were introduced in 1856 and were popular until about 1867. Because tintypes are a permanent photographic image, they may still be in good condition if they were stored properly over the years."

Perzackly!

libertybele · « **Reply #30 on:** July 04, 2021, 12:17:27 am »

BULLETIN
Tropical Storm Elsa Intermediate Advisory Number 14A
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL AL052021
800 PM EDT Sat Jul 03 2021

...ELSA SLOWS DOWN AS IT PASSES BETWEEN HAITI AND JAMAICA...
...RECONNAISSANCE AIRCRAFT EN ROUTE TO INVESTIGATE THE STORM...

https://www.nhc.noaa.gov/text/refresh/MIATCPAT5+shtml/032356.shtml

catfish1957 · « **Reply #31 on:** July 04, 2021, 11:58:09 am »

4 Jul 2021 4 a.m. update: Elsa has weakened to Tropical Storm Strength and is presently located at the straits between Jamaica and Haiti, given both countires tropical storm strength winds. Later today the storm will head toward Cuba scraping most of the southhas coast today and tomorrow. Forecast then has it moving towards the keys, veering north and east, finally making landfall NW of Tampa.

NHC forecasts that the storm while in the Caribbean and Gulf will remain at T.S. Strength. Through Wednesday 4-6" inches of rain is expected along the SW Florida coast from the Keys to Tampa Bay. A Tropical Storm Watch has been issued for most of the Key, and a Warning likely issued later today.

Gefn · « **Reply #32 on:** July 04, 2021, 01:31:09 pm »

mystery-ak · « **Reply #33 on:** July 04, 2021, 04:28:48 pm »

Cuba evacuates 70,000 as Tropical Storm Elsa approaches

HAVANA (AP) — Cuba evacuated 70,000 people along the island’s southern region on Sunday amid fears that Tropical Storm Elsa could unleash heavy flooding after battering several Caribbean islands, killing at least three people.

The Cuban government had opened shelters and moved to protect sugarcane and cocoa crops ahead of the storm. Most of those evacuated went to relatives’ homes, while about 23,000 people sheltered at government facilities. Some 400 living in mountainous areas took refuge in natural caves that had been prepared for the emergency.

The storm’s next target was Florida, where Gov. Ron DeSantis declared a state of emergency in 15 counties, including in Miami-Dade County where the high-rise condominium building collapsed last week.

more
https://apnews.com/article/caribbean-cuba-tropical-storms-storms-floods-15098bff76e4d0e938339627501d0ff0

libertybele · « **Reply #34 on:** July 04, 2021, 05:26:46 pm »

We'll see. I live in SW FL and I don't think we're going to see a whole lot of rain. The predicted 4-6" mentioned above, really isn't much at all.

Wingnut · « **Reply #35 on:** July 04, 2021, 05:28:39 pm »

Big Nothing burger for us. I'm not even going to bother hoarding anything.

libertybele · « **Reply #36 on:** July 04, 2021, 05:30:40 pm »

Quote from: Wingnut on July 04, 2021, 05:28:39 pm

Big Nothing burger for us. I'm not even going to bother hoarding anything.

It will probably be a big nothing burger for us as well...I was a little surprised that DeSantis called a state of emergency, but considering the condo that just collapsed he's covering his booty.

Wingnut · « **Reply #37 on:** July 04, 2021, 05:32:30 pm »

Quote from: libertybele on July 04, 2021, 05:30:40 pm

It will probably be a big nothing burger for us as well...I was a little surprised that DeSantis called a state of emergency, but considering the condo that just collapsed he's covering his booty.

One less thing for the leftists to mount a phony baloney attack on him.

catfish1957 · « **Reply #38 on:** July 04, 2021, 06:00:40 pm »

4 Jul 2020 10 a.m. update: No really significant changes since last advisory in path or strength. Almost all the models have a landfall NW of Tampa, with only 4-6" of rain. Since 33 out of 34 of the models now show this storm not reaching hurricane strength, this will be my last advisory unless some one else wants it, or if the situation changes.

libertybele · « **Reply #39 on:** July 04, 2021, 06:25:51 pm »

Quote from: Wingnut on July 04, 2021, 05:32:30 pm

One less thing for the leftists to mount a phony baloney attack on him.

IMO either way DeSantis goes on this he's going to catch blame.

They are going to start demolition. Considering that the Israelis have commented that they've seen people rescued after 9 days, it gave me reason to question as to why they are going to demo so soon, especially since the building has been evacuated.

Secondly, looking at the tropical storm models, it sure doesn't look like the Miami area is even gong to be affected.

You are right, the left will find a reason to attack him.

libertybele · « **Reply #40 on:** July 05, 2021, 03:47:21 pm »

Tropical Storm Elsa Discussion Number 21
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL AL052021
1100 AM EDT Mon Jul 05 2021

Key Messages:

1. Heavy rain will impact the Cayman Islands and Cuba today
resulting in significant flooding and mudslides over Cuba. As Elsa
approaches the Florida Keys, the Florida Peninsula, and coastal
Georgia through Wednesday, heavy rainfall may result in isolated
flash, urban, and minor river flooding. Mid to late week, heavy
rains across coastal South Carolina and North Carolina may result
in isolated flash and urban flooding.

2. Tropical storm conditions and a dangerous storm surge are
expected to continue across portions of central and western Cuba
today.

3. Tropical storm conditions are expected in portions of the
Florida Keys and along the Florida west coast tonight through
Tuesday night, where a Tropical Storm Warning is in effect. A
Tropical Storm Watch and a Storm Surge Watch are in effect for
portions of the west coast of Florida and the Florida Big Bend.

4. There is a risk of tropical storm conditions and storm surge
impacts along the coasts of Georgia and the Carolinas Wednesday and
Thursday.

Cyber Liberty · « **Reply #41 on:** July 05, 2021, 03:59:28 pm »

The cone is pretty far away from Miami now. Looks like they knocked the building down for nothing.

libertybele · « **Reply #42 on:** July 05, 2021, 04:15:24 pm »

Quote from: Cyber Liberty on July 05, 2021, 03:59:28 pm

The cone is pretty far away from Miami now. Looks like they knocked the building down for nothing.

The bldg. had to eventually come down anyway, but any chances of finding survivors now (though slim) is gone.

Cyber Liberty · « **Reply #43 on:** July 05, 2021, 04:29:40 pm »

Quote from: libertybele on July 05, 2021, 04:15:24 pm

The bldg. had to eventually come down anyway, but any chances of finding survivors now (though slim) is gone.

And everybody who lived in the intact section got to watch all their precious belongs collapse into a pile of dust and rubble. As long as the building still stood, there was a chance they could save their possessions.

No more.

libertybele · « **Reply #44 on:** July 05, 2021, 08:20:45 pm »

Tropical Storm Elsa Makes Cuba Landfall; Tropical Storm Watches and Warnings Expanded in Florida

A tropical storm warning is in effect for portions of the Florida Keys, from Craig Key westward to the Dry Tortugas, and also along the west coast of Florida from Flamingo to the Suwannee River. This includes Key West, Marco Island, Naples, Sanibel Island, Sarasota-Bradenton and Tampa-St. Petersburg. Tropical storm conditions (winds 39+ mph) are expected to begin in the Lower and Middle Keys tonight and along the west coast of Florida Tuesday.

Tropical storm watches have also been issued in other parts of Florida, from Craig Key eastward to Ocean Reef, including Florida Bay, and from north of the Suwannee River to Indian Pass, near Apalachicola. Tropical storm conditions (winds 39+ mph) are possible beginning tonight in the Upper Keys and in Florida's Big Bend by Tuesday night.

catfish1957 · « **Reply #45 on:** July 06, 2021, 01:31:17 pm »

6 Jul 2020 8:00 CDT update.

Elsa has started its approach to FL. There is strengthening underway, and is forecasted to be a a 70 mph Tropical Storm at Landfall. The NHC also thinks there might be a slight chance to a minimal hurricane, and Watches have been posted from Egmont Key to the Steinhatchee River. 5 foot storm surge is expected just east of landfall. 4-6" of rain generally along the Florida West Coast.

My many experiences tell me this won't be too big a problem, but 70 mph sustained winds sure will be disrupting the power, and be taking down some trees/limbs. Keep us updated FL Briefers.
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mountaineer · « **Reply #46 on:** July 06, 2021, 01:46:43 pm »

Looks like my friends near Wilmington, NC, and a cousin in Delaware will get to share in the Elsa experience.

catfish1957 · « **Reply #47 on:** July 06, 2021, 01:53:13 pm »

Quote from: mountaineer on July 06, 2021, 01:46:43 pm

Looks like my friends near Wilmington, NC, and a cousin in Delaware will get to share in the Elsa experience.

The Outer Banks is the most hurricane prone area in the entire United States. They could probably tell you some "Cane Tales"

Wingnut · « **Reply #48 on:** July 06, 2021, 01:54:55 pm »

So, will this go down as a 'cane in the books or a TD?

catfish1957 · « **Reply #49 on:** July 06, 2021, 02:00:29 pm »

Quote from: Wingnut on July 06, 2021, 01:54:55 pm

So, will this go down as a 'cane in the books or a TD?

Based on at this very moment NHC guidance. 90% chance - Tropical Storm, 10% chance- Hurricane. We will know in the next few days.