Hurricane Elsa, (including updates)

[catfish1957]

Tropical Storm Elsa has formed.  It still way out there, at least 500 miles east of the Leeward Island.  Elsa is the 5th earliest "E" storm on record, so unfortuantely it seems we might again be in for an above average Tropical season.  Long range NHC projections has this storm going into the Carribean, veering NW through Jamaica, Cuba, and South Florida.  At this point in the forecast period (and early obviously), NHC has the storm remaining under Hurricane status.


BULLETIN
Tropical Storm Elsa Intermediate Advisory Number 3A
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL       AL052021
800 AM AST Thu Jul 01 2021

...ELSA CONTINUING QUICKLY WESTWARD...


SUMMARY OF 800 AM AST...1200 UTC...INFORMATION
----------------------------------------------
LOCATION...9.6N 50.2W
ABOUT 780 MI...1255 KM ESE OF THE WINDWARD ISLANDS
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...40 MPH...65 KM/H
PRESENT MOVEMENT...W OR 275 DEGREES AT 25 MPH...41 KM/H
MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...1006 MB...29.71 INCHES

[Elderberry]

ABC7 7/2/2021

Elsa has strengthened to become the first hurricane of the 2021 Atlantic season.

Elsa's maximum sustained winds have increased to near 75 mph as of Friday morning as the storm approaches Barbados.

This is a breaking news update. A previous version of this report is below.

Tropical Storm Elsa is strengthening as it moves toward land in the Caribbean Sea.

The 5 a.m. (AST) update from the National Weather Service found Elsa had maximum sustained winds of 60 miles per hour and was located about 70 miles east southeast of Barbados.
A Hurricane Watch has been issued for the Dominican Republic as Elsa is expected to continue to strengthen as it moves westward.

A Tropical Storm Warning is in effect for most of the islands in the area.

Elsa's track will move it through the Windward Islands on Friday. On Saturday the storm will approach Hispaniola. Elsa then moves near Jamaica and Cuba on Sunday.

More: https://abc7chicago.com/hurricane-center-tropical-storm-elsa-noaa-tracker/10852881/

[catfish1957]

Unexpectedly Elsa, has become the first Cape Verde hurricane of the season. Though at minimum strength.  NHC forecast has the storm heading NW, clipping the south coast of Hispanola (Haiti/Domincan Republic) then near Cuba/Jamica, thence to the south coast of Florida.  Forecast strength has it remaining a hurricane until Hispanola. Finally after a week approaching the FL coast as a strong Tropical Storm  Don't forget....  Much can change.  Even yesterday, the NHC did not expect the storm to reach Hurricane status.

One point of interest too, is a couple of the models (though outliers) have this storm reaching Cat 3 status.

Here is the 8AM advisory, path graphics, and latest modeling run....

BULLETIN
Hurricane Elsa Special Advisory Number   8
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL       AL052021
830 AM AST Fri Jul 02 2021

...ELSA STRENGTHENS INTO A HURRICANE...
...HURRICANE CONDITIONS SPREADING THROUGH THE WINDWARD ISLANDS..


SUMMARY OF 830 AM AST...1230 UTC...INFORMATION
----------------------------------------------
LOCATION...13.1N 60.1W
ABOUT 40 MI...65 KM W OF BARBADOS
ABOUT 75 MI...120 KM E OF ST. VINCENT
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...75 MPH...120 KM/H
PRESENT MOVEMENT...WNW OR 285 DEGREES AT 28 MPH...44 KM/H
MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...995 MB...29.39 INCHES

[mountaineer]

source: Accuweather

[Wingnut]

Climate change doncha know.

[catfish1957]

source: Accuweather

 

Looks like another freaking active Hurricane season.  I am still cleaning up one property after Laura.

[Cyber Liberty]

@libertybele Incoming!

[libertybele]

@libertybele Incoming!

Duck and dodge.  LOL   I'm not concerned at this point.

Elsa strengthens into the season's first hurricane, and could pose a threat to Florida by next week

https://www.cnn.com/2021/07/02/weather/hurricane-elsa-forecast-friday/index.html

[libertybele]

Hurricane Elsa cuts power, batters homes in Barbados

os July 2, 2021. REUTERS/Nigel Browne

CHRIST CHURCH, Barbados, July 2 (Reuters) - Hurricane Elsa blew roofs off homes, toppled trees and sparked flooding in the island nation of Barbados then pounded St. Vincent with heavy rain and winds on Friday, as the storm was tracking towards Haiti.

Minister of Home Affairs, Information and Public Affairs Wilfred A. Abrahams urged Barbadians to shelter in place and only leave their homes if the structures were damaged.

Elsa strengthened into a hurricane earlier in the day and was about 95 miles (153 km) west-northwest of St. Vincent, blowing maximum sustained winds of 85 miles per hour (140 kph), the U.S. National Hurricane Center (NHC) said.

"The island definitely cannot handle any sort of damages at this point because we still haven't recovered from the volcanic eruption yet," said 20-year-old student Queriise Thomas in the community of Choppins in southern St. Vincent........

https://www.reuters.com/business/environment/elsa-strengthens-into-hurricane-near-barbados-us-nhc-2021-07-02/

[catfish1957]

Not to much change in the status of Elsa in past 24 hours.  Early part of the path has shifted slightly North, and storm projection has a good bit of time over Cuba.  That is good news for Florida if this happens, as it should at least reduce the chance of the storm strengthening.  According to NHC Elsa will remain a minimal hurricane through its trek in the Caribbean.  Then turn northwest, then north near the Keys, then to Florida coast itself.  The cone basically has about all of Florida, except that bit of the panhandle west of Panama City, Florida. Models generally have about a 100 mile spread, but almost all are aiming at FL.  Our FL Briefers should be preparing in case this this strenghens.  A few of the models have this reaching Cat 2 status.

One bit of interest, is the extreme forward speed Elsa is taking.  I don't ever remember a full cane moving at 31 mph this far south.  North Atlantic? Maybe.  But in the Caribbean?  That is an oddity.
================================================================================
BULLETIN
Hurricane Elsa Intermediate Advisory Number 12A
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL       AL052021
800 AM AST Sat Jul 03 2021

...ELSA MOVING RAPIDLY TOWARD THE SOUTH COAST OF HISPANIOLA...
...CONDITIONS EXPECTED TO DETERIORATE THERE OVER THE NEXT SEVERAL
HOURS...


SUMMARY OF 800 AM AST...1200 UTC...INFORMATION
----------------------------------------------
LOCATION...16.5N 70.3W
ABOUT 110 MI...175 KM SE OF ISLA BEATA DOMINICAN REPUBLIC
ABOUT 440 MI...710 KM ESE OF KINGSTON JAMAICA
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...75 MPH...120 KM/H
PRESENT MOVEMENT...WNW OR 290 DEGREES AT 31 MPH...50 KM/H
MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...999 MB...29.50 INCHES

[libertybele]

Parts of FL may see a tropical storm, or just a lot of rain, that's about it.

[Wingnut]

Parts of FL may see a tropical storm, or just a lot of rain, that's about it.

Yep...we don't do panic porn round here. This ain't no Hurricane Michael. 

[catfish1957]

Parts of FL may see a tropical storm, or just a lot of rain, that's about it.

That's their thinking right now.  But here is the Intensity Model, and it does show one  of them having the storm reaching Cat 3 status, and three near Cat 2.  But like they always say.  It never hurts to over prepare.

[libertybele]

If Elsa doesn't weaken over Hispanola or Cuba, then I'd say there may be a chance for strengthening.

Local forecast so far isn't showing strengthening. Unfortunately the hurricane guru who called Charley taking a different direction and barreling right towards us when all other forecasters were saying it was going to miss us, has retired.     

[libertybele]

Yep...we don't do panic porn round here. This ain't no Hurricane Michael.

Nope, definitely not.  I laugh sometimes at the meteorologists who try to sensationalize storms. As usual they are telling people to prepare now.  After living down here 30 years, it becomes tiresome.

[Wingnut]

Hoarders got to hoard.   

[libertybele]

Hoarders got to hoard.

Ya, well, I am guilty.  After Charley I bought at least a 6 mo. supply of dehydrated food + MRE's.  Well, I've had to throw the MRE's out when we moved because we never needed them and they were beyond expired. I learned.

We bought this house almost 3 years ago new and it came with hurricane shutters --- hopefully they are all there. Never actually put them up to check  and hopefully we won't have to. 

[Wingnut]

We bought this house almost 3 years ago new and it came with hurricane shutters --- hopefully they are all there. Never actually put them up to check  and hopefully we won't have to. 

LOL!  Ours has Kevlar Covers that cover the windows.  My neighbor came by and suggested we do a test fit to make sure the grommets line up with the bolt holes.   Sure enough 3 covers were so messed up they had to replace them.   Another neighbor stopped by as I was standing in my yard looking at all the covers and he asked. "Do you know something we don't" (about a hurricane)   It was funny!

[catfish1957]

  Another neighbor stopped by as I was standing in my yard looking at all the covers and he asked. "Do you know something we don't" (about a hurricane)   It was funny!

In SE Texas, SW Louisana, it is called being snake bitten.  Rita, Ike, Laura, Harvey,  Imelda......  It's really starting to get old.

[Cyber Liberty]

Hoarders got to hoard.

Sounds like an opportunity to make a killing in the plywood futures market. 

The current price of a 4X8 sheet of plywood is > $75 at Home Despot.

[libertybele]

LOL!  Ours has Kevlar Covers that cover the windows.  My neighbor came by and suggested we do a test fit to make sure the grommets line up with the bolt holes.   Sure enough 3 covers were so messed up they had to replace them.   Another neighbor stopped by as I was standing in my yard looking at all the covers and he asked. "Do you know something we don't" (about a hurricane)   It was funny!

    We had Lexan shutters made for a double window to let light in and purchased a hurricane proof stained glass window for the front door. Other than that we have metal (maybe aluminum) and they are too heavy for me to really handle and I haven't gotten the hubby motivated to put them up to check that all windows will be covered (I'm not the nagging type) ... so ... who knows. Hopefully, we won't have to scramble.  We did get a quote to change out the aluminum for accordians, but they wanted $4,500 in addition to the $700+ for the Lexan and the front door wasn't cheap so we passed.

Elsa's been downgraded to a tropical storm anyways.

[Victoria33]

@libertybele

bele, saw on TV this morning, they are going to bring down the rest of the condo building before the storm gets there.

[libertybele]

@libertybele

bele, saw on TV this morning, they are going to bring down the rest of the condo building before the storm gets there.

Yes, I saw that as well, they are going to demo within 36 hours. That's smart and all fine and good, but where in the heck are all the residents going to go?  Friends and family, hotels, but what about all their belongings?  Storage can get expensive.

[Cyber Liberty]

Yes, I saw that as well, they are going to demo within 36 hours. That's smart and all fine and good, but where in the heck are all the residents going to go?  Friends and family, hotels, but what about all their belongings?  Storage can get expensive.

Presently they are being put up in Hotels....

That said, the residents probably will lose all their possessions they did not take with them to the Hotels.  I really doubt they will be allowed in to retrieve them in time.

[Victoria33]

Presently they are being put up in Hotels.... That said, the residents probably will lose all their possessions they did not take with them to the Hotels.  I really doubt they will be allowed in to retrieve them in time.

@Cyber Liberty

When I heard the storm was coming, I said out loud to myself, "What else can happen to these poor people."  I wanted to "fix" it, but no one can "fix" this.