Incredible Temperatures Are Being Predicted and Confidence Is Now High That It Will Occur

[Elderberry]

Cliff Mass Weather Blog

There are two possibilities:

•   The Northwest will soon experience one of the most incredible weather situations in many decades

•    There is a major flaw in virtually all of our weather prediction system

Quite frankly, I am somewhat in shock looking at the raw forecast model predictions or the statistically calibrated versions of their output.  The event being predicted is so extreme and so beyond expectation that my natural inclination is to dismiss it. 

But I can't.  Multiple modeling systems are essentially doing the same thing.  Large ensembles of many forecasts are showing similar solutions from most of the runs.

Let me show you the latest.

An important issue will be proximity to water and to get that right, high-resolution forecasts are important, so let me start by presenting the latest UW high-resolution simulations.  The situation is so extreme that I had the colors altered to better define high temperatures.

Saturday will be the transition day. 

The temperatures at 5 PM, near the time of the maxima, will exceed 100 F in much of the Columbia Basin and in the northern Willamette Valley (e.g. Portland).  90s will invade the interior of southwest Washington and southern Puget Sound.  Warm, but typical of the hottest days of a typical year.

Sunday is something else. 

Temperatures in the Willamette Valley surge ABOVE 108F, as do the lower elevations of the Columbia Valley.  Incredibly, some areas south of the Olympic Mountains get above 104.  Can you imagine the temperature gradients near the coast... from the 60s to over 100F in a matter of a few miles? In central Puget Sound, temperatures will rise the 80s near the water to the upper 90s a few miles inland.

And now Monday at 2 PM.
 
The model resolution is a bit less but the solution is absolutely amazing.  Temperatures exceeding 108F will be found in and near the western Cascade foothills, thanks to the warming easterly flow descending the barrier.  104F and higher away from the water around Puget Sound.  The Fraser River Valley will also be crazy warm.   

More: https://cliffmass.blogspot.com/2021/06/incredible-temperatures-are-being.html

[Elderberry]

Apocalyptic heatwave is coming to torch the Pacific Northwest again – It will get so hot even roads could melt!

By Strange Sounds -Jun 24, 2021

https://strangesounds.org/2021/06/dangerous-historic-heatwave-pacific-northwest-video.html

Confidence is increasing that an episode of historic heat will torch much of the Pacific Northwest late this week into early next, with temperatures 30 degrees or more above average set to topple monthly and all-time records.

“Record-Breaking and Dangerous Heatwave coming to the West,” tweeted the National Weather Service Weather Prediction Center Wednesday. “Over 80 sites are forecast to break daily high temperature records starting this weekend.”

Highs on Sunday could approach 100 degrees in Seattle and 107 in Portland, Ore., cities where a significant portion of the population lacks air conditioning. Seattle has only reached the century mark twice in more than 75 years of records. If Portland hits 107, it would match its highest temperature ever recorded.

“Three words will describe weather for inland areas this weekend into early next week … HOT, VERY HOT,” the National Weather Service office in Portland wrote in a discussion.

In Spokane, Wash., the mercury could reach 110 degrees by Monday. The Weather Service in the Spokane office is referring to the episode as a “historic and dangerous heat wave,” predicting triple-digit heat Saturday to Tuesday. “We currently anticipate that Tuesday will be the hottest day with highs between 105 and 115 for most of the inhabited area,” it wrote.

More at link.

[Lando Lincoln]

Wonder how the power grids will hold up. Better not plug in all those EV’s.

[Free Vulcan]

And for us in the midwest, they're talking several days over the next 10 that don't get above 80F, and rain rain rain nearly every day.

Ironically we are pretty much Seattle right now.

[Elderberry]

And for us in the midwest, they're talking several days over the next 10 that don't get above 80F, and rain rain rain nearly every day.

Ironically we are pretty much Seattle right now.

My BIL lived most his life in Seattle. When he first flew into Houston/Hobby, I had to pick him up at the airport with my truck as the streets were flooded in an ongoing tropical depression.
He told me that even though he's been through a lot of what he considered rain in Seattle, he'd never experienced a Gully Washer rainstorm.

[roamer_1]

Yep. We are expected to be high 90s beginning Saturday, and through next week extending to the end of the10-day forecast. We have already had mid 90s twice this year - Out of the ordinary, to be sure. But without rain following this crazy early heat, I fear for the forest. And rain may not be forthcoming - Our july is normally the end of spring rain, and we start drying out for August, where these temps are more common. August in June... The forest will be a tinderbox.

[GtHawk]

It's gonna be miserable here in Huntington Beach, CA too, low to mid seventies projected for the next ten days.

[Cyber Liberty]

The predicted highs for my town are 10 degrees cooler than last week.

[240B]

The predicted highs for my town are 10 degrees cooler than last week.

Me too. The 10 day forecast is normal to slightly lower than normal.
Highs are barely over 90.

[mountaineer]

It's 93 in the Upper Ohio Valley, where I am, but I just heard from someone on the other side of the state - about four hours east of here - that it's 102 there. Still doesn't compare to much of the country. It's 104 where friends live in eastern Washington.

[libertybele]

The predicted highs for my town are 10 degrees cooler than last week.

Damn global warming.      We are reaching the high 80's and lows in the lower 70's which is a tad cooler than normal for this time of year.  We have entered our rainy season and are getting our afternoon showers and thunderstorms. Nothing out of the usual.

[Cyber Liberty]

Damn global warming.      We are reaching the high 80's and lows in the lower 70's which is a tad cooler than normal for this time of year.  We have entered our rainy season and are getting our afternoon showers and thunderstorms. Nothing out of the usual.

Monsoon is coming, possibly this week.

[mountaineer]

There's a tropic depression or something heading toward South Carolina, but it's not supposed to grow much stronger, I hear.

[thackney]

Monsoon is coming, possibly this week.

It is in Houston now...

sigh....

[Free Vulcan]

We're around 85F and on our near 10th day straight or so precipitation here in the midwest rainforest.

I think I see some orchids growing out there.

[libertybele]

We're around 85F and on our near 10th day straight or so precipitation here in the midwest rainforest.

I think I see some orchids growing out there.

I love orchids.  I used to have quite a few different varieties until we moved. I now only have 3 different types; Vanda (hanging from a tree), Dendrobium which has bloomed twice this year and I have a couple of Reed orchids which are tremendously easy to grow and usually is in bloom most of the time.

[libertybele]

 Amazing that since this whole climate change bullcrap the scientists and media are so focused on the weather and have even come up with weather terms that I never heard of as a kid. High confidence of incredible temperatures?  Oh my! 

Remember when, if it was hot out, well, it was hot out.  As a kid you ran through the sprinklers, swam in the lake or gravel pit and stayed in the basement where it was cooler.  If it was cold out, well, it was cold out.  You dressed appropriately, usually in layers, and wore boots and gloves and dealt with it.  If too cold, you snuggled near the fireplace or wood stove and had an extra excuse to drink hot chocolate.

Weather ridiculousness has settled into our society.

[Free Vulcan]

High confidence of incredible temperatures?  Oh my! 

I was hoping they'd throw in epic, ginormous, megatastic, and other college sophomore verbage.

[Smokin Joe]

Amazing that since this whole climate change bullcrap the scientists and media are so focused on the weather and have even come up with weather terms that I never heard of as a kid. High confidence of incredible temperatures?  Oh my! 

Remember when, if it was hot out, well, it was hot out.  As a kid you ran through the sprinklers, swam in the lake or gravel pit and stayed in the basement where it was cooler.  If it was cold out, well, it was cold out.  You dressed appropriately, usually in layers, and wore boots and gloves and dealt with it.  If too cold, you snuggled near the fireplace or wood stove and had an extra excuse to drink hot chocolate.

Weather ridiculousness has settled into our society.

It is what happens when people grow up in a climate controlled (indoor) environment. Our schools, churches, homes, cars, etc. were not air conditioned, we had to hit a tourist trap restaurant or a movie theater to get that.

[Wingnut]

The Hippy Dippy Weatherman is not concerned about these events.

[Elderberry]

It is what happens when people grow up in a climate controlled (indoor) environment. Our schools, churches, homes, cars, etc. were not air conditioned, we had to hit a tourist trap restaurant or a movie theater to get that.

School was the worst, especially May and early  June before we got out for summer. Back in the pre ball point pen days. Those fountain pens didn't take too well to wet paper from sweaty hands and arms. Home wasn't too bad with our whole house attic fan. And I stayed outside until dark. I hate that cars today did away with vent windows. They really helped out with no AC.

[Smokin Joe]

School was the worst, especially May and early  June before we got out for summer. Back in the pre ball point pen days. Those fountain pens didn't take too well to wet paper from sweaty hands and arms. Home wasn't too bad with our whole house attic fan. And I stayed outside until dark. I hate that cars today did away with vent windows. They really helped out with no AC.

I still have a couple with vent windows, and one with the pop up cowl vent that blew air into the cab. Definitely something to miss. The FJ-40 has those foot level side vents that are a blessing, too.

[Elderberry]

I still have a couple with vent windows, and one with the pop up cowl vent that blew air into the cab. Definitely something to miss. The FJ-40 has those foot level side vents that are a blessing, too.

I loved those floor vents too except when I left them closed for too long. Then when I opened them up, all the leaves would fly out.

[Wingnut]

Second Gen Firebirds had an A/C vent that was positioned just below the steering column.   You could direct it to blow right up your skirt and cool the vayjay after a hard days work in panty hose....

[Smokin Joe]

I loved those floor vents too except when I left them closed for too long. Then when I opened them up, all the leaves would fly out.

Yeah, it pays to keep the floor clean...