Four Factors Will Shape Future U.S. Policy in Middle East
by James Jay Carafano
Tuesday, June 15, 2021
The future Middle East matters to the United States. Peace, stability and prosperity in the region impacts our vital interests. The four factors outlined here could dramatically affect the U.S. capacity to safeguard our interests in the near to mid-term.
The United States is a global power with global interests and responsibilities. The U.S. ability to protect those interests is impacted by the key regions that link the world together and the global commons (air, sea, space, cyberspace) that connect them. The regions are Western Europe, the Greater Middle East and the Indo-Pacific. If these areas of interest and the commons that connect them are relatively peaceful and stable then the U.S. can more confidently exercise its influence as a great power, either being in or getting to the place America needs to be to protect our vital interests.
America’s greatest foreign and security policy challenge is contributing to regional stability and the freedom of the commons in an era of great power competition. Great power competition is the compelling and driving framework of contemporary geo-politics and will likely remain so into the near future. This is a competitive framework in which China, Russia, Iran and North Korea will remain our chief concern, the adversarial powers with both the capacity and interest to disrupt regional stability.
https://www.hoover.org/research/four-factors-will-shape-future-us-policy-middle-east