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Tropical Weather Update (Potential Tropical Cyclone #3) 18 Jun 2021

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catfish1957:
7AM NHC Advisory on Potential Tropical Cyclone #3 (Future Claudette?)
000
WTNT33 KNHC 181136
TCPAT3

BULLETIN
Potential Tropical Cyclone Three Intermediate Advisory Number 3A
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL       AL032021
700 AM CDT Fri Jun 18 2021

...HEAVY RAINFALL AND GUSTY WINDS EXPECTED TO REACH PORTIONS OF THE
NORTHERN GULF COAST LATER TODAY...


SUMMARY OF 700 AM CDT...1200 UTC...INFORMATION
----------------------------------------------
LOCATION...26.0N 91.5W
ABOUT 255 MI...410 KM S OF MORGAN CITY LOUISIANA
ABOUT 385 MI...620 KM SSW OF MOBILE ALABAMA
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...35 MPH...55 KM/H
PRESENT MOVEMENT...N OR 360 DEGREES AT 14 MPH...22 KM/H
MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...1007 MB...29.74 INCHES


WATCHES AND WARNINGS
--------------------
CHANGES WITH THIS ADVISORY:

None.

SUMMARY OF WATCHES AND WARNINGS IN EFFECT:

A Tropical Storm Warning is in effect for...
* Intracoastal City Louisiana to the Okaloosa/Walton County line.
* Lake Pontchartrain, Lake Maurepas, and Metropolitan New Orleans

A Tropical Storm Warning means that tropical storm conditions are
expected somewhere within the warning area, in this case within 12
to 24 hours.

Interests elsewhere along the northern Gulf Coast should monitor
the progress of this system.

===========================================================

System is really struggling with dry air on its western side, and organization looks really really ragged.  In fact there is not even a complete covection field around low area.  Plus, time is not its side either....   It's racing to north at 14 mph, and if the present trend holds, it might not even be a depressions when it crossed what wlll likely be the SE Louisana coast later today. NHC has its chance at 90%.  That seems a bit generous to me after the past 4 satelitte shots. In any case, the storm's speed is good news to the affected location.  Present forecast is 3-6 inches of rainfall.

catfish1957:
10:00 am update

000
WTNT33 KNHC 181440
TCPAT3

BULLETIN
Potential Tropical Cyclone Three Advisory Number   4
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL       AL032021
1000 AM CDT Fri Jun 18 2021

...HEAVY RAINFALL AND GUSTY WINDS BEGINNING TO REACH PORTIONS OF
THE NORTHERN GULF COAST...


SUMMARY OF 1000 AM CDT...1500 UTC...INFORMATION
-----------------------------------------------
LOCATION...26.5N 91.1W
ABOUT 220 MI...355 KM S OF MORGAN CITY LOUISIANA
ABOUT 340 MI...550 KM SSW OF MOBILE ALABAMA
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...35 MPH...55 KM/H
PRESENT MOVEMENT...NNE OR 15 DEGREES AT 14 MPH...22 KM/H
MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...1007 MB...29.74

=================================================

NHC has cancelled T.S warnings for Intercoastal City to Morgan City, but remains from Morgan City to FL panhandle.

Course now looks like center will be near Houma later today.  NHC apparently still thinks it will be a minimal T.S. before landfall.  Surge and wind impacts look minimal.  Rainfall of 5+ inches still seems like the biggest concern for where the storm lands and points eastward.
Majority of wind and convection remains on the eastern semiciricle of the circulation, as dry air and shear are present on the west side.

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