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Tropical Weather Update 16 Jun 2021

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catfish1957:
There are still eyes on the Gulf.  Area of low pressure in the Bay of Campeche, has drifted a little closer to the Mexican coast, may interact, but NHC still believes this will start moving north and form a depression within 24 hours.  Right now they have the probability of that at 90%.  If you look at the "bubble" area of development it has moved slightly westward in the past 24 hours.  Basically from Bay City, TX to Morgan City, LA.  Again reading between the NHC lines, I think they believe that this is not going to be a big wind maker, but anyone unlucky to being just east of COC at landfall is going to get seriously drenched.  And right now, that is not what SE Texas, or SW Louisiana needs.   Here is the latest update on 92L:


Based on 0600 UTC surface analysis and satellite imagery through
0750 UTC.

...SPECIAL FEATURES...

Disorganized showers and thunderstorms continue over the Bay of
Campeche and southern Mexico in association with a broad low
pressure area. Fresh to strong NW-N winds are noted within 60 nm
of the coast of Veracruz where seas are 3 to 5 ft. This system
will move little during the next day or so, and little if any
development is expected during that time due to interaction with
land. However, the broad disturbance should begin to move
northward on Thu, and a tropical depression is likely to form by
late Thu or on Fri when the low moves across the western Gulf of
Mexico. Regardless of development, heavy rainfall will continue
over portions of Central America and southern Mexico during the
next several days. Heavy rains could also begin to affect portions
of the northern Gulf Coast on Fri. Please consult products from
your local meteorological service for more information. This area
has a high chance of tropical cyclone formation in the next 48 hrs
and five days. Please refer to the latest Tropical Weather
Outlook issued by the NWS National Hurricane Center at website:
www.hurricanes.gov for more details on this area.

thackney:
I would like to see more tracks east into less favorable conditions.

catfish1957:

--- Quote from: thackney on June 16, 2021, 03:56:12 pm ---I would like to see more tracks east into less favorable conditions.



--- End quote ---

Latest model run?

From a dying low remant over Vera Cruz to hitting Tampa,FL....  Might as well be throwing the dice at this point.

One good bit of news from our local TV Met.  He thinks atmospheric conditions are set where this thing wherever it lands will be quick moving, moving north and east in a manner to  spare us an intense rain event. 

thackney:

--- Quote from: catfish1957 on June 16, 2021, 06:24:54 pm ---...One good bit of news from our local TV Met.  He thinks atmospheric conditions are set where this thing wherever it lands will be quick moving, moving north and east in a manner to  spare us an intense rain event.

--- End quote ---

That is my hope, and really the only concern at this point.

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