General Category > Weather
Tropical Weather Outlook, June 14, 2021
thackney:
1. Satellite, radar and surface observations indicate that a
well-defined low pressure system located about 90 miles southeast of
Cape Hatteras, North Carolina, is acquiring more tropical
characteristics. Environmental conditions appear conducive for
further development, and a tropical depression or tropical storm is
likely to form later today or tonight. This system is expected to
move northeastward away from the United States and move over colder
waters south of Nova Scotia on Wednesday, ending any opportunity for
further development by midweek.
* Formation chance through 48 hours...high...70 percent.
* Formation chance through 5 days...high...70 percent.
2. Showers and thunderstorms located over the Bay of Campeche are
associated with a broad low pressure area. Gradual development of
this disturbance is possible during the next couple of days while
it meanders near the coast of Mexico, and a tropical depression
could form late in the week when the system moves northward into
the central Gulf of Mexico. Regardless of development, heavy
rainfall is possible over portions of Central America and southern
Mexico during the next several days. Please consult products from
your local meteorological service for more information.
* Formation chance through 48 hours...low...20 percent.
* Formation chance through 5 days...medium...60 percent....
thackney:
Looks like rolling dice for the direction
HoustonSam:
--- Quote from: thackney on June 14, 2021, 06:47:11 pm ---Looks like rolling dice for the direction
--- End quote ---
If I understand the time stamps correctly in the titles, the more recent forecast converges on LA. Of course that will likely change on the next update.
catfish1957:
--- Quote from: thackney on June 14, 2021, 06:47:11 pm ---Looks like rolling dice for the direction
--- End quote ---
Actual that is pretty tight clustering for an invest initialization. One thing is for sure, climatogically speaking, Southern GOM storms very typically do a north move in true Audrey tradition in June.
Last few frames of sat shows a pretty strong east west tongue of dry air in the 23-27 Latitude in GOM. So I am not really that sure this thing ever gets a toe hold for development. But agree, this early in the game, who knows what or if this thing will develop. Those from Brownsville to FL panhandle should watch though.
libertybele:
North Carolina might see some action.
It's always concerning when we see activity on our side of the Gulf; a little early in the season perhaps for us to be all that concerned, but you never can tell.
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