Tropical Weather Outlook, June 14, 2021

[thackney]

1. Satellite, radar and surface observations indicate that a
well-defined low pressure system located about 90 miles southeast of
Cape Hatteras, North Carolina, is acquiring more tropical
characteristics.  Environmental conditions appear conducive for
further development, and a tropical depression or tropical storm is
likely to form later today or tonight.  This system is expected to
move northeastward away from the United States and move over colder
waters south of Nova Scotia on Wednesday, ending any opportunity for
further development by midweek.
* Formation chance through 48 hours...high...70 percent.
* Formation chance through 5 days...high...70 percent.

2. Showers and thunderstorms located over the Bay of Campeche are
associated with a broad low pressure area. Gradual development of
this disturbance is possible during the next couple of days while
it meanders near the coast of Mexico, and a tropical depression
could form late in the week when the system moves northward into
the central Gulf of Mexico. Regardless of development, heavy
rainfall is possible over portions of Central America and southern
Mexico during the next several days.  Please consult products from
your local meteorological service for more information.
* Formation chance through 48 hours...low...20 percent.
* Formation chance through 5 days...medium...60 percent....

[thackney]

Looks like rolling dice for the direction

[HoustonSam]

Looks like rolling dice for the direction

If I understand the time stamps correctly in the titles, the more recent forecast converges on LA.  Of course that will likely change on the next update.

[catfish1957]

Looks like rolling dice for the direction

Actual that is pretty tight clustering for an invest initialization.  One thing is for sure, climatogically speaking, Southern GOM storms very typically do a north move in true Audrey tradition in June.

Last few frames of sat shows a pretty strong east west tongue of dry air in the 23-27 Latitude in GOM.  So I am not really that sure this thing ever gets a toe hold for development.  But agree, this early in the game, who knows what or if this thing will develop.  Those from Brownsville to FL panhandle should watch though.

[libertybele]

North Carolina might see some action.

 It's always concerning when we see activity on our side of the Gulf; a little early in the season perhaps for us to be all that concerned, but you never can tell.

[thackney]

Actual that is pretty tight clustering for an invest initialization.  One thing is for sure, climatogically speaking, Southern GOM storms very typically do a north move in true Audrey tradition in June.

Last few frames of sat shows a pretty strong east west tongue of dry air in the 23-27 Latitude in GOM.  So I am not really that sure this thing ever gets a toe hold for development.  But agree, this early in the game, who knows what or if this thing will develop.  Those from Brownsville to FL panhandle should watch though.

The Brazos River was out of its bank last week and has not dropped much yet.  That is what has me nervous and watching a little closer than normal for a few more weeks.  We do not have much room left to accommodate a bunch of rain without spilling back out of the banks.

[catfish1957]

The Brazos River was out of its bank last week and has not dropped much yet.  That is what has me nervous and watching a little closer than normal for a few more weeks.  We do not have much room left to accommodate a bunch of rain without spilling back out of the banks.

Today's update:
ZCZC MIATWOAT ALL
TTAA00 KNHC DDHHMM

Tropical Weather Outlook
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL
Issued by the NWS Weather Prediction Center College Park MD
200 PM EDT Tue Jun 15 2021



1. Disorganized showers and thunderstorms continue over the Bay
of Campeche and southern Mexico in association with a broad
low pressure area. This system is expected to move little during
the next day or two, and any development should be slow to occur
during that time period due to its close proximity to land. 
However, the disturbance should begin to move northward by
Thursday, and a tropical depression is likely to form late in
the week when the low moves across the central and
northwestern Gulf of Mexico. Regardless of development,
heavy rainfall will continue over portions of Central America
and southern Mexico during the next several days. Heavy rains
could also begin to impact portions of the northern Gulf Coast
on Friday. Please consult products from your local
meteorological service for more information.
* Formation chance through 48 hours...medium...40 percent.
* Formation chance through 5 days...high...80 percent.


Forecaster Cangialosi/Roth

==================================================

Looking at the models and weather charts, and reading between the lines of this update, it appears that the NHC thinks (again me speculating) that this storm will be a depression (25-38 mph)  as it approaches the northern gulf coast on Friday.  If you look at their forecast "bubble map" it looks like landfall will be somewhere between Palacios and NOLA.  Again as  a reminder to everyone....   The exact path of where the depression means little as far as storm surge or wind.  The biggest concern is for the poor folks who get hit with the eastern side of the convection off the storm.  June climatology also brings fronts that approach the mid latitudes say at 35-40 degrees, and this phenomenon often causes these June storms to slow down or stall. Allison in 2001 is a vivid reminder to us who live in SE Texas.