June 12, 2021
Will Shipbuilding Disasters Doom the U.S. Navy’s Plans to Counter China?
A change in administration likely presages some changes to the details of the Navy’s plans, including the final shipbuilding total, but we can still expect to see plenty of new naval construction in the coming years.
by Dan Grazier
The Defense Department has bold ambitions for the future of the Navy, centering on growing the fleet significantly in the next three decades. But based on the Navy’s track record of failed shipbuilding programs over the past 20 years, it is impossible to see how the service could bring its ambitions to fruition.
On December 9, the Navy released its 30-year shipbuilding plan to counter a rising China, calling for a 546-ship fleet by 2051. The new fleet would be made up of 403 manned battle force ships and 143 unmanned surface and subsurface vessels. This plan is even more ambitious than the one put forward by former Defense Secretary Mark Esper that would see the fleet grow to a total of 500 ships by 2045. To accomplish its 30-year plan, the Navy would have to grow its current fleet of 297 ships by 84%.
A change in administration likely presages some changes to the details of the Navy’s plans, including the final shipbuilding total, but we can still expect to see plenty of new naval construction in the coming years. Navy leaders are carrying on with the 500-ship fleet as their goal. The key assumption of China as the pacing threat is well entrenched for virtually all the key players on both sides of the aisle in the national security establishment. Anyone we can expect the Biden administration to appoint to leadership positions inside the Pentagon will almost certainly adhere to this key tenet of the national security hive mind.
https://nationalinterest.org/blog/reboot/will-shipbuilding-disasters-doom-us-navy%E2%80%99s-plans-counter-china-187613
