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First tropical interest in the Gulf for the 2021 season has 60% chance for development

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libertybele:
...and we're off to an early beginning to the official hurricane season.

First tropical interest in the Gulf for the 2021 season has 60% chance for development

Once again, the tropics are getting a jump start on the hurricane season, with two areas of potential development in the Atlantic basin.

An area of disorganized thunderstorms in the Western Gulf of Mexico, Invest 91-L, is the only potential impact to Southeast Texas. It has a 60 percent chance for development. Another more impressive disturbance, Invest 90-L, is located in the open Atlantic will stay out to sea and not impact the United States. It has an 90 percent chance for development.

The Gulf disturbance is disorganized and will drift toward the Texas coast through late Friday. It does not have much time to organize and is in an area that is only marginally conducive for development.

The biggest impact from 90-L will be rain. It will generate bands of rain that rotate into southeast Texas Friday afternoon, Friday night and even into Saturday as it makes quick progress onshore. It should be near shore as a tropical depression or weak tropical storm by landfall during the overnight hours Friday night. One to two inch rainfall from the storm will be common in southeast Texas. Some locations could get more. Isolated flooding will be possible, considering that the ground is already saturated from previous heavy rain..........

https://www.click2houston.com/weather/2021/05/21/slight-chance-for-tropical-development-in-gulf/

thackney:
Tropical Development Is Becoming Less Likely in the Gulf of Mexico But System May Increase Flood Threat
https://weather.com/storms/hurricane/news/2021-05-21-gulf-tropical-disturbance-texas-louisiana-flood-threat
less than an hour ago

A tropical area of low pressure in the Gulf of Mexico is being watched for possible development and this system may bring more heavy rainfall to water-logged areas of Texas and Louisiana into this weekend.

A surface circulation is located in the western Gulf of Mexico is less than 50 miles east-southeast of Corpus Christi, Texas. Meteorologists are referring to this as Invest 91L, a term used to identify systems that may develop into a depression or storm.

Shower and thunderstorm activity near Invest 91L remains rather weak, partially due to a tongue of dry air that has wrapped over the system from a swirling upper-level low that spawned the surface low.

If showers and thunderstorms become more numerous near the low-pressure center, a short-lived tropical depression or tropical storm could form before it moves inland over the Texas Gulf Coast Saturday morning....

catfish1957:
15" of rain this week. Just what we need.

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