Author Topic: MAD versus NOW  (Read 2176 times)

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Offline AARguy

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MAD versus NOW
« on: May 19, 2021, 07:18:27 am »
I am long retired and no longer "in the game". At my time in life I am much less of an expert in many things I was once was and have become just an average citizen... you know.. like a simple guy from the boonies with simple attitudes and simple opinions. I'd like some input from the august readers of this forum on those opinions.

The topic is Chinese nukes. Your criticism of my opinions is very welcome. Here goes...In my life several things have become so constant that I have pretty much accepted them as axiomatic. One of these is the deterrent value of "Mutually Assured Destruction" (MAD). In my early years we practiced diving under our school desks in case of nuclear attack. We came close with the Cuban Missile Crisis in the 1960's, an accidental violation of NATO airspace involving the 1st AADCOM at the Wasserkuppe in the 1980's and many other less publicized incidents. It is my opinion that the often-expected Russian invasion of Western Europe was similarly deterred. From the China Sea to the Iron Curtain, our adversaries simply were not willing to risk vaporizing Moscow or Beijing. SALT talks came and SALT talks went. But MAD was the immutable, ever present reality that precluded and continues to preclude nuclear war. Peace was never about a bunch of folks sitting around talking. It was about the reality of millions of dead which became the ever-present deterrent. despite the dynamics of politics and technology, the basic fact of MAD never changed.
Now, however, I see a NEW reality which may change this almost-75 year OLD reality. It is the introduction of a theological nuclear capable nation state into the equation. Again, this is just my opinion, based on observations by others, tempered by personal experience. I read about NEW enemies publicly decrying "DEATH TO AMERICA!".  They are so dedicated that they strap bombs on their children to bomb their enemies. Americans cannot conceive of this because they do not understand that these parents are not killing their kids, they are sending them to ETERNAL PARADISE. Making their offspring martyrs is a GOOD THING.
Iran's leadership holds these basic values. A young Iraqi who was my Interpreter-translator at Camp Liberty explained it to me this way. "This life is just a foyer, and entranceway, if you will. It is a short period of transition to PARADISE. Radical Islamists see killing infidels as the key to gaining entrance to PARADISE. It's essentially that simple. They don't care about "dying" as long as PARADISE is the eventual destination."So MAD means nothing to this new Muslim enemy. Many people point out that Iran has neither nukes nor missiles... yet. I would dispute that. "Inside the Army" and its sister publications like "Inside the Pentagon" were some of the few places you could read about the joint Iran-North Korea team efforts to develop nukes. Routinely the "Inside" publications reported Iranian scientific teams working closely with the North Koreans on nuclear tests. There was also an article about Iran providing improved fissionable material to North Korea in exchange for North Korean-made "SUPERSCUDS" capable of carrying nukes over limited, but impressive, distances. Remember their report on the "Ghost Ship" that reportedly carried some of these SUPERSCUDS which we had such difficulty tracking? Meanwhile, rumors spread about the Iranian ability to transport nukes to American ports in fishing trawlers and cargo ships flagged from various nations. I did some work with the "CARGO CATS" tasked with inspecting incoming cargo in the Los Angeles area for contraband. They explained that only about 3% of any cargo was actually inspected due to volume and resources. 

Again, I am just an old guy no longer in the game. But I remain an active citizen that votes. I don't know about nuclear talks with China and, from my perspective, I don't see their actual value. MAD remains in effect. But religious zealots may be changing the game... a lot.

Should I just charge up the stairs attacking San Juan Hill as the old guy did in "Arsenic and Old Lace"?

Or are my new worries valid?