February 2021 weather triggers largest monthly decline in U.S. natural gas production

[thackney]

February 2021 weather triggers largest monthly decline in U.S. natural gas production
https://www.eia.gov/todayinenergy/detail.php?id=47896



n February 2021, a record-breaking cold snap hit the Lower 48 states. Extreme winter weather caused natural gas production freeze-offs and higher electricity and commodity prices, especially in the top energy-consuming state, Texas. The cold snap affected natural gas production and industrial sector consumption the most, which had the largest monthly declines on record, while residential sector consumption reached a record high.

U.S. natural gas production in February 2021—measured by gross withdrawals—averaged 104.8 billion cubic feet per day (Bcf/d), an 8.1 Bcf/d (7%) decrease from January, the largest monthly decline on record. Decreased natural gas production in Texas accounted for most of the overall decline. Texas natural gas production fell by a record 4.3 Bcf/d (15%) to 21.5 Bcf/d.

From February 8 to 17, natural gas production in Texas fell by more than 10 Bcf/d. The decline in natural gas production was mostly a result of freeze-offs, when water and other liquids in natural gas wells freeze at the wellhead or in natural gas gathering lines and block the flow. Texas natural gas production infrastructure is more susceptible to the effects of extremely cold weather because it is not winterized to the same extent as natural gas production infrastructure in colder, northern areas of the Lower 48 states.



In February, industrial sector natural gas consumption in Texas fell to 4.1 Bcf/d, or 23% lower than year-ago levels, the largest monthly decline on record. This drop relates to both the direct effects of the extreme cold weather, including power outages and equipment failure, and indirect effects, such as supply shortages and extreme prices. Texas is the largest natural gas-consuming state overall because of its large volumes of consumption in its industrial sector.

In February, U.S. consumption of natural gas in the residential sector typically decreases compared with January. Instead, Texas experienced a monthly increase in residential sector consumption because of the extreme cold weather when temperatures remained below freezing for several days. Residential sector consumption in Texas during February reached a monthly record high of 1.8 Bcf/d, 53% higher than year-ago levels and 64% higher than the five-year average. Similarly, commercial sector consumption of natural gas in Texas increased in February, reaching 0.92 Bcf/d, the highest level since January 2018.

In Texas’s electric power sector, consumption was essentially flat year over year for February at 4.5 Bcf/, an increase of 1% compared with February 2020. More than 60% of homes in Texas use electricity for home heating, meaning that February’s cold snap should have led to a surge in electricity consumption. However, electricity outages across Texas limited consumption.

On February 17, the U.S. benchmark Henry Hub natural gas spot price reached $23.86 dollars per million British thermal unit (MMBtu). By contrast, residential and commercial natural gas prices remained fairly flat for the month in most states because of regulatory policies that set price parameters in advance.

[thackney]

[IsailedawayfromFR]

Makes one  wonder why more natural gas storage was not released.  Seems it behaved almost the same as other years.

[thackney]

Makes one  wonder why more natural gas storage was not released.  Seems it behaved almost the same as other years.

????

See the blue line that was above average then darts below average?  That was the massive withdraw.

That week had the largest ever recorded withdraw rate for the South Central Region.  The withdraw rate tripled from two weeks before.

https://ir.eia.gov/ngs/ngshistory.xls

But you are looking at the storage for the entire country.  The East, Midwest, Mountain, and Pasific Regions were not experiencing the same weather extremes.

[IsailedawayfromFR]

????

See the blue line that was above average then darts below average?  That was the massive withdraw.

That week had the largest ever recorded withdraw rate for the South Central Region.  The withdraw rate tripled from two weeks before.

https://ir.eia.gov/ngs/ngshistory.xls

But you are looking at the storage for the entire country.  The East, Midwest, Mountain, and Pasific Regions were not experiencing the same weather extremes.

Yes, I saw all that, yet the gas inventory nationwide only went a bit under 50% of peak storage.

[thackney]

Yes, I saw all that, yet the gas inventory nationwide only went a bit under 50% of peak storage.

How would it affect nationwide?  How could the gas in the Midwest get to Southcentral?  The pipeline compressor stations have the suction on the southside of the pipelines and discharge to north.  Most of them are not bidirectional.

[DB]

California's going to fix the need for natural gas...

https://www.ksby.com/news/california-news/california-proposes-to-steer-new-homes-from-gas-appliances

Idiots.

[Joe Wooten]

California's going to fix the need for natural gas...

https://www.ksby.com/news/california-news/california-proposes-to-steer-new-homes-from-gas-appliances

Idiots.

Don't you know that clean electricity is produced magically whenever it is needed using fairy dust and unicorn farts?

[IsailedawayfromFR]

How would it affect nationwide?  How could the gas in the Midwest get to Southcentral?  The pipeline compressor stations have the suction on the southside of the pipelines and discharge to north.  Most of them are not bidirectional.

One cannot tell until one knows where those huge amounts that remained in storage during this time existed, can we?

In looking at the troughs of April '19, '20 and '21 it appears that '21 was not as low as '19 and only slightly lower than that of '20.

I would think that the Northern states would draw more of their supplies out consistently due to yearly cold cycles, and any in the South would have been tremendously low during the recent cold snap.

[thackney]

One cannot tell until one knows where those huge amounts that remained in storage during this time existed, can we?

I posted a link to the data tables of withdraw rates per region per week.  Do you need to look at that again?

In looking at the troughs of April '19, '20 and '21 it appears that '21 was not as low as '19 and only slightly lower than that of '20.

Yes entire seasons tend to vary more than a single storm, even a massive storm.

I would think that the Northern states would draw more of their supplies out consistently due to yearly cold cycles, and any in the South would have been tremendously low during the recent cold snap.

There is a significant limit to the amount that can be drawn out per day, just like the SPR.  In many of these system you need dehydration of the gas which is a significiant limiting factor.  And during the cold snap in Texas, some of those systems froze up.

[IsailedawayfromFR]

I posted a link to the data tables of withdraw rates per region per week.  Do you need to look at that again?

Withdrawal rates do not equate to remaining storage in inventory, something I could not find in tables.  I may have overlooked them.

Yes entire seasons tend to vary more than a single storm, even a massive storm.

Agreed

There is a significant limit to the amount that can be drawn out per day, just like the SPR.  In many of these system you need dehydration of the gas which is a significiant limiting factor.  And during the cold snap in Texas, some of those systems froze up.

I understand some did freeze up, which was my original question as to why inventory remained large.  Yet we had the largest withdrawal rate that week ever in the South Central area which coincided with the largest decrease in industrial usage.

[thackney]

Withdrawal rates do not equate to remaining storage in inventory, something I could not find in tables.  I may have overlooked them.

It does not matter what is left inside the storage, only how fast you can get it out when the needs change.

Agreed

I understand some did freeze up, which was my original question as to why inventory remained large.  Yet we had the largest withdrawal rate that week ever in the South Central area which coincided with the largest decrease in industrial usage.

And also the massive shutdown of gas flowing into the system from the wells, which was the primary problem on the gas system.

Total inventory had a relatively small change because it was a short term event.  The storage is sized for the whole season with a significant margin.  A less than a week event does not have a major impact to total inventory because it cannot be withdrawn fast enough.

[IsailedawayfromFR]

It does not matter what is left inside the storage, only how fast you can get it out when the needs change.

And also the massive shutdown of gas flowing into the system from the wells, which was the primary problem on the gas system.

Total inventory had a relatively small change because it was a short term event.  The storage is sized for the whole season with a significant margin.  A less than a week event does not have a major impact to total inventory because it cannot be withdrawn fast enough.

If it is designed not be withdrawn within a week, then something fundamental may be wrong with its design.

The storage facility I worked with in Louisiana had capability to store 7 bcf of natural gas that could be withdrawn at a rate of 1 bcfpd, with 1 bcf of unremovable storage.

[thackney]

If it is designed not be withdrawn within a week, then something fundamental may be wrong with its design.

This is seasonal storage.  It is not built built to deliver in a week the entire contents.  The pipelines are not big enough to handle that added volume.

The storage facility I worked with in Louisiana had capability to store 7 bcf of natural gas that could be withdrawn at a rate of 1 bcfpd, with 1 bcf of unremovable storage.

Vast overkill if designed for seasonal storage which nearly all of this is.  The last one I worked with was 150 bcf and 1.2 bcfpd.

I am guessing the 7 bcf was a salt dome?  Most existing natural gas storage in the United States is in depleted natural gas or oil fields.  In some areas, most notably the Midwestern United States, natural aquifers have been converted to natural gas storage reservoirs. Although the geology of aquifers is similar to depleted production fields, their use for natural gas storage usually requires more base (cushion) gas and allows less flexibility in injecting and withdrawing.

[thackney]

Withdrawal rates do not equate to remaining storage in inventory, something I could not find in tables.  I may have overlooked them.

I found graphs for the inventories by region including salt and non-salt.

Regional Natural Gas Storage Stocks
https://www.eia.gov/naturalgas/storage/dashboard/regional

Notice how much steeper the drop was in salt dome storage.  In depleted reserviour, our gas came out fully staturated and included hydrocarbon liquid that was not part of our injection.  By repeated sweeping the reserviour we got enough sellible liquid to pay for the water disposal.  But this put significant limits on our withdraw rate.  We expanded the withdraw rate 3 times in the late 90's.

[IsailedawayfromFR]

This is seasonal storage.  It is not built built to deliver in a week the entire contents.  The pipelines are not big enough to handle that added volume.

Vast overkill if designed for seasonal storage which nearly all of this is.  The last one I worked with was 150 bcf and 1.2 bcfpd.

I am guessing the 7 bcf was a salt dome?  Most existing natural gas storage in the United States is in depleted natural gas or oil fields.  In some areas, most notably the Midwestern United States, natural aquifers have been converted to natural gas storage reservoirs. Although the geology of aquifers is similar to depleted production fields, their use for natural gas storage usually requires more base (cushion) gas and allows less flexibility in injecting and withdrawing.

The 1 bcfpd came from a single well in a salt dome used for both injection and production.

1.2 bcfd seem awfully low for 150 bcf of gas storage.  It is no wonder there remains such a high inventory in these figures if that is all the delivery amounts to.  All you need are more wells and expanded delivery systems in natural gas fields now used for storage to make a bigger impact on both filling it up and withdrawal.

And base cushion gas is required in both depletion type and water-drive type fields.  And there is less cushion required for storage into water drive reservoirs if one has more compression available and more wells as, although efficiency goes down,  one can mimic pressure depletion behavior.

[thackney]

1.2 bcfd seem awfully low for 150 bcf of gas storage.

We tripled the flow rate over a few years to reach that point.  We were considered massive in the withdraw rate for depleted reserviors.  They are not comparable to salt dome storage.  We have a lot of salt dome storage here where I work now but almost all of it is liquid.

There was 20~30 wells.  Faster withdraw rates we would pick up so much sand it would erode the chokes and elbows out of the 3000# piping.

[GtHawk]

So is this why my last gas bill was almost double? I'm in SoCal and don't use a heater, only gas use is for hot water, cooking and clothes dryer.

[thackney]

So is this why my last gas bill was almost double? I'm in SoCal and don't use a heater, only gas use is for hot water, cooking and clothes dryer.

This was no impact for California.  But Southern California is shutting down some Natural Gas storage in SoCal.

https://www.latimes.com/business/story/2019-11-20/newsom-explores-closing-aliso-canyon-natural-gas-facility-faster

https://losangeles.cbslocal.com/2021/04/08/la-city-council-calls-on-newsom-to-shut-down-playa-del-rey-natural-gas-site/

So the reason for high SoCal Nat Gas prices is California.

[GtHawk]

This was no impact for California.  But Southern California is shutting down some Natural Gas storage in SoCal.

https://www.latimes.com/business/story/2019-11-20/newsom-explores-closing-aliso-canyon-natural-gas-facility-faster

https://losangeles.cbslocal.com/2021/04/08/la-city-council-calls-on-newsom-to-shut-down-playa-del-rey-natural-gas-site/

So the reason for high SoCal Nat Gas prices is California.

Ok, then it was probably just the typical lazy meter reader that 'estimated' my usage instead of actually reading it. But then my meter along wit 3 other units is in a neighbors patio (Apts) and that guy has so much crap it may have covered the meters.