ERCOT details 3 scenarios that could leave Texans without power this summer
https://www.khou.com/article/news/investigations/could-lights-go-out-again-this-summer-2021/285-71780fd2-c26c-43c0-9acd-215eb6a98d5b...A preliminary “seasonal assessment of resource adequacy” from ERCOT lays out three extreme risk scenarios based on historical data from a really hot and dry summer in 2011. If Texas experiences the same conditions this season, the report estimates the power grid capacity could fall 3,614 megawatts short, or enough to power 720,000 homes. If low solar power generation is factored in, the shortfall drops to 7,500, or 1.5 million homes.
ERCOT’s worst-case scenario would leave the grid 14,000 megawatts short. That estimation is based on low wind output, low solar output, an extreme peak load, and extreme generation outages of all sources. In such a scenario, 2.8 million Texas homes could be left in the dark.
“I'm very concerned because we've had underinvestment across this grid and underinvestment with generation, underinvestment with transmission,” KHOU11 energy analyst Ed Hirs said.
Yet in the report’s summary, ERCOT does not appear to be concerned. It states “the grid operator anticipates there will be sufficient generation to meet the summer peak demand” if system conditions remain as expected....
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A bit of panic porn in the title. The actual report does not give me much concern. But then I have already replaced my generator with a bigger unit.
PRELIMINARY
Seasonal Assessment of Resource Adequacy for the ERCOT Region (SARA)
Summer 2021
http://www.ercot.com/content/wcm/lists/219840/SARA-PreliminarySummer2021.pdfBased on information provided by generation owners to ERCOT, the grid operator anticipates there will be sufficient generation to meet the summer 2021 peak demand based on expected system conditions. ERCOT's summer season is June through September.
“ERCOT will benefit from growth in generation resources, but forecasts are also showing another record-breaking summer on the demand side,” said ERCOT’s Vice President of Grid Planning and Operations Woody Rickerson. “Overall, power reserves are in a better position heading into this summer compared to the past few years.”
ERCOT is traditionally a summer peaking region, and generators in Texas are typically built to maximize performance during hot weather conditions.
With continued economic growth across the state, ERCOT anticipates a summer 2021 peak demand of 77,144 MW, which would be a new system-wide peak demand record for the region. Based on the December Capacity, Demand and Reserves Report, the reserve margin is expected to reach 15.5% by summer, up from 12.6% in 2020 and just 8.6% in 2019.
ERCOT anticipates there will be nearly 87,000 MW of resource capacity available for summer peak, including 5,489 MW of planned summer-rated capacity (i.e., gas-fired, utilityscale solar and wind). Additionally, ERCOT expects to have 939 MW of operational battery storage resources, which includes 717 MW of planned additions. While some of these battery storage resources may help meet customer demand, they are not currently included in ERCOT’s capacity contributions for summer....
