Coronavirus cases hit a seven-month low.. BUT CDC expects new COVID surge starting this month

[Wingnut]

This is why people are convinced the "Experts" are FOS!     Two articles back to back!

Coronavirus infections in the U.S. are now at their lowest levels in seven months, thanks to the vaccines.

The big picture: The vaccines are turning the tide in America's battle with the coronavirus. Deaths and serious illnesses have dropped significantly, and now cases are falling too — an important piece of protection for the future, if we can keep it up.

By the numbers: The U.S. averaged about 48,000 new cases per day over the past week.

That’s a 13% improvement over the week before, and it’s the first time since October that average daily cases have dipped below 50,000.
20 states saw fewer new cases over the past week than they did the week before, while outbreaks got bigger in 10 states.
New Jersey saw the biggest improvement over the past week, with a 40% drop in new cases, followed by Connecticut, at 30%.

https://www.axios.com/coronavirus-cases-infections-vaccines-variants-cc1d83ed-6523-43d9-9032-91b2ba08cb37.html


But not so fast....


 CDC expects new COVID surge starting this month
Coronavirus cases across the U.S. are likely to peak this month before dropping by July, the Centers for Disease Control and Prevention said Wednesday.

The state of play: America's rate of daily new COVID cases has declined in recent weeks, per data from Johns Hopkins University. Health officials are urging people to remain vigilant as variants spread, some of which are more contagious and deadly than the original strain of the virus.

What they're saying: CDC projections in four different scenarios of vaccination rates and state reopenings show that the outbreak generally remains the same in each forecast.

While cases are expected to spike in May, hospitalizations and deaths will likely remain low nationwide, the agency said. Across all four scenarios, the country's case count is likely to fall in July.
High vaccination rates and adherence to safety protocols "are essential to control COVID-19 and prevent surges in hospitalizations and deaths in the coming months," U.S. health officials wrote in Wednesday's report.

https://www.axios.com/covid-variants-cdc-surge-may-july-25e75c6e-f273-4e3c-98d9-39f404a56fa0.html

[Cyber Liberty]

From the second article:

What they're saying: CDC projections in four different scenarios of vaccination rates and state reopenings show that the outbreak generally remains the same in each forecast.

IOW, the beatings will continue whether you get "the shot" or not.  This will get people signing up, yes.

[PeteS in CA]

Covid-19 computer modeling predictions have been so wonderfully accurate ... in some perpendicular alternate universe.

Coronavirus cases across the U.S. are likely to peak this month before dropping by July, the Centers for Disease Control and Prevention said Wednesday.

So, when the people of the US obstinately refuse to fulfill this prediction, can we also fire these Panic-Porn mongering hacks?!

[mountaineer]

Gee, I'm kinda getting the impression the CDC is dishonest, incompetent and/or deceitful. 

[DB]

Gee, I'm kinda getting the impression the CDC is dishonest, incompetent and/or deceitful. 

Or?

[DefiantMassRINO]

When it comes to Covid-19/SARS-2, there are no experts.  It's too new.

Anyone who is an alleged "expert" is a bloviating fraud.

[skeeter]

Gee, I'm kinda getting the impression the CDC is dishonest, incompetent and/or deceitful. 

It would be much easier to name the federal departments that are not dishonest, incompetent and deceitful.

[mountaineer]

Sarcasm aside, it makes sense to disbelieve anything coming from the feds anymore.

[PeteS in CA]

The curious can find how things are progressing in the US here, https://www.worldometers.info/coronavirus/country/us/ . Basically, the last week of March and first two weeks of April were a very moderate bump in new cases. Daily new cases have been falling since April 13th.

What's interesting to me is that the March-April new cases bump did not have a corresponding bump in daily deaths. Daily deaths in the US have been flat since around the beginning of April, after a significant plunge that began around January 20th.

I wonder if the CDC Panic-Porn monger-ghouls will get a new cases bump, let alone the new cases surge they hope for. And the same disappointment with regard to daily deaths.

[PeteS in CA]

4 days later, US new cases numbers are still falling. Less than 3 weeks for this surge to begin to fulfill the "CDC experts"' prediction.

[Wingnut]

4 days later, US new cases numbers are still falling. Less than 3 weeks for this surge to begin to fulfill the "CDC experts"' prediction.

They changed "new surge" to "Blips".  I got your blip right here Frauci.

[Smokin Joe]

The curious can find how things are progressing in the US here, https://www.worldometers.info/coronavirus/country/us/ . Basically, the last week of March and first two weeks of April were a very moderate bump in new cases. Daily new cases have been falling since April 13th.

What's interesting to me is that the March-April new cases bump did not have a corresponding bump in daily deaths. Daily deaths in the US have been flat since around the beginning of April, after a significant plunge that began around January 20th.

I wonder if the CDC Panic-Porn monger-ghouls will get a new cases bump, let alone the new cases surge they hope for. And the same disappointment with regard to daily deaths.

Well, doggone it, they ran out of nursing homes to infect.

[PeteS in CA]

4 days later, US new cases numbers are still falling. Less than 3 weeks for this surge to begin to fulfill the "CDC experts"' prediction.

A week later, US new cases numbers are still falling. Just 13 days left for the experts' prediction.

I wanted a "Panic Porn" graphic, but this was the closest I found:

[Wingnut]

New covid cases are dropping faster than Bill Gates pants.

[PeteS in CA]

New covid cases are dropping faster than Bill Gates pants.

I posted this in another thread, but the peak news cases number was on January 8th, ~304K; yesterday was ~25K, and still falling.

[BassWrangler]

They are making educated guesses based on the data they have, but it's colored heavily by fear of the impact from getting it wrong. So everything takes a back seat to butt covering. You can see this in Fauci's statements - way too conservative in his projections and advice. So ultimately, while they are a good source of info, one should not make policy based solely on what you hear from the CDC.

[Kamaji]

It may be concern about the Indian variant getting a hold here.

[PeteS in CA]

It may be concern about the Indian variant getting a hold here.

As I posted in another thread:

Both Pfizer/BioNtech And Moderna Vaccines Remain Active Against India Variants

https://brief19.com/2021/05/17/brief/both-pfizerbiontech-and-moderna-vaccines-remain-active-against-india-variants

A new study preprinted on biorxiv by researchers at New York University provides good news. While some of the new variants described in India evade, to some degree, the antibodies of patients who have recovered from infection (convalescent plasma), both these antibodies and those derived from fully vaccinated people still appear to function as intended, at least in laboratory settings. To a lesser extent, the study found the same to be true of monoclonal antibodies (i.e. Regeneron's therapeutic compound). These data imply that the new variants, B.1.617 and B.1.618 may be a little more slippery in their ability to wriggle away from natural and vaccine-induced antibodies, but not enough that those antibodies are rendered ineffective. In particular, most people who have recovered from infection or have been vaccinated are likely to have antibodies that are good enough to provide protection (the true clinical effect of the monoclonal antibodies among the "original" or "wildtype" variants remains debated).\ Interestingly, the measured antibody levels among vaccinated persons were about 5 times greater than those found among samples of blood taken from covid-19-recovered persons. This once again demonstrates that vaccines induce a massive antibody response, which is likely what makes them so effective to begin with and also explains in part why they have, so far, been remarkably able to overcome an onslaught variants. That said, the strength of the binding between the B.1.617 variant and vaccine-induced antibodies dropped 4-fold in this laboratory-based study. A 2.7-fold decrease was noted for the B.1.618 variant.

Variants! Variants! Variants!

Wolf! Wolf! Wolf!

I haven't seen anything wrt the J&J or Novavax vaccines and the Indian variant, but aside from that it is known that the J&J, Moderna, Novavax, and Pfizer vaccines all have significant effectiveness against known major variants. Novavax is probably getting close to requesting Emergency Use Authorization from the FDA.

Because AstraZeneca's vaccine isn't effective against the South African variant, I wonder if AZ will request EUA. And if the Indian variants is a further mutation from the South African variant, I doubt they will request EUA. Sanofi has a vaccine about to begin Phase 3 testing, though its effectiveness across multiple variants isn't clear.

[thackney]

It may be concern about the Indian variant getting a hold here.

The COVID-19 variant first identified in India has been found in the US
https://thehill.com/changing-america/well-being/prevention-cures/553923-the-covid-19-variant-first-identified-in-india
May 17, 2021

On May 10, the World Health Organization (WHO) classified the coronavirus variant that was first identified in India as a “variant of concern” on a global level. This variant, named B.1.617, is thought to be more easily spread than the original versions of the novel coronavirus, and it has been linked to the current surge of cases in India....

...In April, Tennessee had cases from people who had recently traveled to India, according to The Associated Press (AP)....

...In Iowa, two cases were confirmed in early May, according to the AP. In Nebraska, a case caused by the B.1.617 variant was confirmed last week. The person has links to international travelers, according to the AP.

In Nevada last week, a woman who had not traveled and was not vaccinated tested positive for the B.1.617 variant, according to the AP. Eight other cases were also reported in Nevada....

[libertybele]

Cases here in FL have plummeted and that is with the thousands of new people moving to our state on a weekly basis.

I am suspect of this prediction of a surge.  I am suspect of all the "variants".

If people like Fauci and cronies released the virus on us for their own political gain and agendas, they certainly will do it again.

Otherwise ... why do we need a 3rd shot and more to come?  Meanwhile the drive towards socialism continues while our Republic is dismantled and our economy is destroyed.

It's time for people to wake the heck up!!!!

[PeteS in CA]

Cases here in FL have plummeted and that is with the thousands of new people moving to our state on a weekly basis.

I am suspect of this prediction of a surge.  I am suspect of all the "variants".
...

Aside from a small bump, probably imported by Spring-Breakers from other states, FL's daily new cases have been declining since peaking in early January. The decline was a plummet until flattening more recently.

My opinion is that this prediction will be proven false by reality. That's why I keep bumping this thread, to mock the CDC "experts".

The variants are real enough, because that's what viruses do. But what the MSM bury or leave unsaid is that the Vaccines approved for use in the US are effective against the variants. I'm getting my second Pfizer in a few hours. I've seen no reason to get a booster (if, years from now, one becomes advisable, it would be no different from some other vaccines).

[DefiantMassRINO]

Improving weather, higher vaccination rates ... these attention whores are going to need to manufacture a new crisis to keep our attention.

[BassWrangler]

Improving weather, higher vaccination rates ... these attention whores are going to need to manufacture a new crisis to keep our attention.

I don't think it's going to work. We're into the warm weather months, and the vaccines are working.

[jmyrlefuller]

I was going to say: it's summer. Airborne viruses are seasonal; they always go down in the summer. So for people to predict surges in an environment when it's almost impossible to have a large surge... it's intellectually dishonest.

If they want to be worried, worry about autumn. That will be the true test of these vaccines. If there's another surge like last year, we've wasted our time. I don't think there will be but who knows?

[PeteS in CA]

It's May 28th, still no surge. In fact, per https://www.worldometers.info/coronavirus/country/us/ , both daily new cases and daily deaths numbers in the US continue to fall. Unsurprisingly.

What will the new Panic Porn date be for the "experts"' hoped for surge? By the end of June? July? August?