Coronavirus cases hit a seven-month low.. BUT CDC expects new COVID surge starting this month

[Victoria33]

Look at seven day periods data.

[Victoria33]

AS OF JUNE 6/7:  Consider all in quotes:

Cases in the UK have surged by 53% in a week as 17 areas now have infection rates above 100 per 100,000 people, new data shows.

The government’s latest COVID-19 figures, released on Monday, demonstrate the continued spread of the more transmissible Indian variant, which has been renamed the "Delta" variant by the World Health Organization.

Downing Street has said there is “nothing in the data” to suggest a delay would be needed.

But an increasing number of senior advisers are believed to be pushing for a delay of up to a couple of weeks to fully understand the impact of the Indian variant.

In the seven days up to Monday, there were 35,796 cases reported in the UK.

This is an increase of 12,378 (52.9%) from the number reported the week before - ending May 31.

Read: Children over 12 should get COVID vaccine 'quickly', says former government chief science adviser

Meanwhile, 17 areas have now emerged as hotspots including Bolton, Manchester and Glasgow. A full list of those areas can be viewed at the bottom of this page.

The latest government figures also shows that 28 areas have a case rate of more than 100 per 100,000.
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The UK’s recent surge in Covid-19 infections has continued today with 5,341 new cases confirmed, as of 9am on Sunday, meaning cases have risen by 11,022 (or 49 per cent) over the last seven days.

Government data also showed that a further four people had died within 28 days of testing positive for Covid-19, suggesting that the recent rise in cases has not yet led to a surge in hospitalisations and deaths.

It came as health secretary Matt Hancock confirmed that people aged under 30 would be invited to book their coronavirus vaccine jabs starting this week.

Speaking on Sky News’ Trevor Phillips On Sunday programme, the health secretary said vaccines had “severed, but not broken” the link between a rise in cases and and the number of people being admitted into hospital.

“The majority of people going into hospital right now are unvaccinated,” Mr Hancock said.

The health secretary added that the government’s plans for a final lifting of the remaining Covid-19 restrictions would likely move forward as planned later this month if there is no increase in hospital admissions over the coming days.

However, he said it was “too early” to say whether restrictions would be fully lifted for sure.

[PeteS in CA]

Look at seven day periods data.

@Victoria33, that nice smooth dark blue curve on the chart is the running 7-day average. You would have known that had you bothered to look along the the bottom of the chart @thackney posted. Even that bump in the last several days is a bump in a basement floor, and may have already peaked.

UK reality isn't what you seem determined to believe it is, @Victoria33.

[Victoria33]

@Victoria33, that nice smooth dark blue curve on the chart is the running 7-day average. You would have known that had you bothered to look along the the bottom of the chart @thackney posted. Even that bump in the last several days is a bump in a basement floor, and may have already peaked.  UK reality isn't what you seem determined to believe it is, @Victoria33.

I looked at the whole chart.  Maybe you have not read my post before this one.  No point in going on with this conversation.

[PeteS in CA]

I looked at the whole chart.  Maybe you have not read my post before this one.  No point in going on with this conversation.

If you looked at the whole chart then you knew the 7-day average shows the UK is not experiencing a bump in new cases.

Meanwhile, looking at Worldometer, the US' new cases and deaths numbers obstinately continue to decline, defying CDC experts' hopes.

[jmyrlefuller]

@PeteS in CA

A week ago he was admitted to the hospital as an emergency case not related to covid but he was where covid patients go.  He went back there several days later after getting out of hospital for his second covid shot.  He gets first hand knowledge what is happening there due to his connections to news services people, BBC, and others, police and yes, to those who shall not be mentioned.  He is a documentary film producer/director, lived there over 25 years.  I believe him and his connections.  The NHS will re-evaluate where the UK is on June 14, to determine whether or not to open the country on June 21.

If not now, then when? What more can they do? The vaccine was the last weapon they had in the arsenal. They HAVE to reopen.

[Victoria33]

@Cyber Liberty
@mystery-ak

Latest from the UK:
Delta virus 40% more spreadable than the other main UK virus.  Talks are going on to move being full open country from June 20/21 to July 20/21.  They believe they will have 80% with two shots by that July date, but that does not include the children so the 80% does not mean herd immunity due to the children.  An effort has started to vaccinate children.

[PeteS in CA]

@Victoria33, looking at Worldometer's UK page, I see the UK is experiencing a bump. Whether that is mostly vaccinated or unvaccinated people I've not heard. And whether it turns into something more than a bump from a very low floor remains to be seen.

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Former Trump advisor predicts: We're going to see a third wave of COVID, especially in red states

https://hotair.com/allahpundit/2021/06/14/former-trump-advisor-predicts-were-going-to-see-a-third-wave-of-covid-especially-in-red-states-n396590

It’s hard to imagine we won’t see a wave now that the B.1.617 Indian/Delta variant is spreading in the U.S. and less than half the population remains fully vaccinated. But it feels newsy that a Trump alum like Bossert would sound a discouraging note after Republican opinion has already shifted to “the pandemic’s over, everyone take off your masks.”

Note that Bossert’s not predicting a disaster, just a rise in cases of some degree. Studies show that the mRNA vaccines work against the Indian variant; we also know from CDC data that more than three-quarters of senior citizens have been fully vaccinated. The most vulnerable people won’t be washed away by the next wave that crashes down on the U.S.

But some adults who remain unvaccinated will. It’s only a question of how many. Watch the last few minutes of this clip then read on.

1. Despite the prediction of CDC "experts" and now this guy's more carefully qualified prediction, there is no hint of a bump in new cases on Worldometer's US page. New cases continue to decline.

2. I'm underwhelmed by Allahpundit's capability for thinking things through. As he suggested, just 43.4% of the US population is "fully vaccinated" ( https://covid.cdc.gov/covid-data-tracker/#vaccinations , as of yesterday morning). But there are several factors he did not consider.

First, 52.4% of the US population have received at least one vaccine dose. IOW, and additional 9% of the US population have received the first dose of either the Pfizer or Moderna vaccine. It has been learned that a single dose of those vaccines provides immunity similar in effectiveness to the single-dose J&J vaccine. That's 9% of people who have substantial immunity that Allahpundit ignored.

Second, based on observing that webpage almost daily, 800K-1M doses are injected daily. While not as great a rate as non-anti-vaxxers would wish, by the end of summer (late September) as many as 70-80 million more Americans might be at least partially vaccinated. IOW, the populations of the susceptible and of those who could transmit are shrinking steadily.

Third, children under age 12 are not allowed to be vaccinated. That's 10%-15% of the US population; thankfully, their risk appears to be significantly lower than for adults.

Fourth, based on Worldometer data, ~8.5% of the US population have immunity from recovery. While some of us have also gotten vaccinated, there is a counter-balancing group of unknown magnitude who either did not know they had Covid or didn't bother to get tested (of course, some of them may have gotten vaccinated).

Taking all that together, some 60%-65% of the US population have a significant degree of immunity, obviously a majority. That population of the immune is growing daily, while 10%-15% of the US population is not allowed, yet, to be vaccinated.

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In miscellaneous news:

* Both Pfizer and Moderna have begun the Biologics License Application process for adults. A Biologics License means full FDA approval for a vaccine. Will anti-vaxxers give up their "experimental vaccine" talking-point? Probably not.

* Moderna last week applied for an expansion of their Emergency Use Authorization (EUA) to include youths age 12-17. Pfizer's EUA was expanded to include ages 12-15 in the first part of May

* Novavax announced that their vaccine had met the primary endpoints for its Phase 3 test, with 90.4% efficacy and 100% protection against moderate and severe disease, https://ir.novavax.com/news-releases/news-release-details/novavax-covid-19-vaccine-demonstrates-90-overall-efficacy-and . Novavax plans to apply for EUA in coming weeks. Anti-vaxxers will have a third vaccine technology to shovel @#$% against, as Novavax uses protein subunit technology rather than mRNA or viral vector technology. I'm sure anti-vaxxers' capacity for lie creation is equal to that task.

[Victoria33]

@PeteS in CA
@Cyber Liberty
@mystery-ak
@Gefn

Talked with son (who is in UK) yesterday.  Pete, glad you posted to bring this virus thread up again.
In UK, Delta numbers are doubling every week.  When I talk to him on Skype, I write down what he says about numbers:  Last Saturday, 7,800 new cases of Delta.  For whole numbers, consider that 8,000 new cases every day for the last week.  This also means a likely 16,000 more per day when this week is over unless it surpasses that number as it spreads quickly.

He also said national health dept. and govn. wanted to open UK completely on June 21, but they were to make an announcement shortly about that.  He knows they may have to keep this level of closure until July 21, four more weeks.

I will find out what they said today, if, indeed, they did make a statement confirming one way or the other.  It is 5:01 pm here at my house, central time, so it is 11:17 pm there (6 hrs. ahead of central time).  I will do a search after I post this.

Heard a US woman doctor today who is on TV a lot; she works with this virus (yes, I should get her name, I will do that, I promise.)  She is concerned about Delta here; said it is spreading rapidly here and Delta is worse than other strains to spread and is medically worse than others as the vaccines cannot prevent this strain. 

An added bonus for you on this thread:  It is scientifically determined that Earl Grey Tea lowers cholesterol and is good for your heart.  Yes, I have read the scientific evidence. I use Twinings Earl Grey Tea as they developed this tea way back in historical tea history. 

I started this several days ago when I found this effect of the tea.  I am drinking two cups per day, one mid-morning, one at 5 or 6 or 7 pm.  It is the Bergamot Peel in the black tea that medically lowers cholesterol.  I am using this rather than a statin drug the doc wants; statin drugs have some bad side effects; I am not going to take them - will drink tea.  Doc makes me go for blood test every three months, have two more months before have to go there.  I will know the cholesterol number at that time; will let you know if the number has lowered.

Ok, will keep drinking my cup of Earl Grey and will do a bit of research to find doc name and what UK government said or did not say today, the 14th.

PS. I bought Twinings Earl Grey Tea Bags on Amazon, $12.36 for 100 tea bags.

[mountaineer]

Heard a US woman doctor today who is on TV a lot; she works with this virus (yes, I should get her name, I will do that, I promise.)  She is concerned about Delta here; said it is spreading rapidly here and Delta is worse than other strains to spread and is medically worse than others as the vaccines cannot prevent this strain.

I could have sworn I heard somewhere the vaccine does prevent the "variant" strains. This is getting interesting. 

Yes, here it is. Looks like scientists disagree.

Two doses of vaccine highly effective against Delta variant, U.K. officials say
Akshay Syal, MD 2 hrs ago

Two doses of the Pfizer-BioNTech or the AstraZeneca Covid-19 vaccines are highly effective against hospitalization from the Delta variant of the coronavirus, according to a new analysis from Public Health England released Monday.

The variant, which was first identified in India, has become the predominant strain in the United Kingdom. A previous analysis from PHE suggested that a single dose of the vaccine was less effective against symptomatic illness caused by the Delta variant compared to the so-called Alpha variant, or B.1.1.7, which swept the U.K. in the winter.

The new analysis found that two doses of the Pfizer vaccine were 96 percent effective against hospitalization from the Delta variant, and two doses of the AstraZeneca vaccine were 92 percent effective.  ...

NBC News via MSN

[libertybele]

I could have sworn I heard somewhere the vaccine does prevent the "variant" strains. This is getting interesting. 

Yes, here it is. Looks like scientists disagree.NBC News via MSN

Personally, I don't believe anything coming from the CDC nor the WHO. The fact that the scientists can't agree for the most part is also concerning. 

 Most of those in my area are NOT wearing masks.  Signs mandating mask wearing have been taken down. 

Hospitals and medical facilities are still mandating masks -- cloth is not allowed and they hand you a paper mask -- medical grade.

[Victoria33]

@mountaineer
@Cyber Liberty
@mystery-ak
@Gefn
@PeteS in CA

YES, UK EXTENDED DATE TO KEEP UK AT PRESENT LEVEL LOCKDOWN RESTRICTIONS FOR ANOTHER FOUR WEEKS, JULY 19:

Consider the rest in quotes:

"Health leaders have expressed “relief” that the Prime Minister has extended the current lockdown restrictions for another four weeks.

Pushing back so-called Freedom Day to July 19 will mean that the NHS can vaccinate “many more people”, NHS Providers said as it welcomed the “cautious” approach.

It will also mean that there is “less pressure” on hospitals which are still recovering from the effects of the pandemic.

Meanwhile, the NHS Confederation said health leaders will be “relieved” at the delay.

Chris Hopson, chief executive of NHS Providers, said that a cautious approach 'is prudent'".
________________________________________________________________________
Addition:  UK hoping if person has had two vaccine shots, and gets Delta, the vaccines will keep the infection lower so person may not have to go to hospital.  Hospital admissions are tracked.

[Wingnut]

@mountaineer
@Cyber Liberty
@mystery-ak
@Gefn
@PeteS in CA

YES, UK EXTENDED DATE TO KEEP UK AT PRESENT LEVEL LOCKDOWN RESTRICTIONS FOR ANOTHER FOUR WEEKS, JULY 19:

Consider the rest in quotes:

"Health leaders have expressed “relief” that the Prime Minister has extended the current lockdown restrictions for another four weeks.

Pushing back so-called Freedom Day to July 19 will mean that the NHS can vaccinate “many more people”, NHS Providers said as it welcomed the “cautious” approach.

It will also mean that there is “less pressure” on hospitals which are still recovering from the effects of the pandemic.

Meanwhile, the NHS Confederation said health leaders will be “relieved” at the delay.

Chris Hopson, chief executive of NHS Providers, said that a cautious approach 'is prudent'".

England sucks.  Lockdowns don't work. But hey if it makes you feel good ... Fear Porn.

[libertybele]

If not now, then when? What more can they do? The vaccine was the last weapon they had in the arsenal. They HAVE to reopen.

Absolutely agree with you on this @jmyrlefuller

[PeteS in CA]

US daily new cases and daily deaths still falling.

[skeeter]

US daily new cases and daily deaths still falling.

Yeah but an important election is coming.

Gotta mandate those universal mail in ballots & Zuckerboxes.

[Wingnut]

But the India variant of the Chinese Wuhan Flu is still the mo dangerous and will kill millions and millions....

[dfwgator]

When you see the light at the end of the tunnel....extend the tunnel!