Climate models overestimate future sea-level rise by up to 25%, new climate model finds
Date: 11/04/21
Utrecht University, Utrecht University Faculty of Science
Current climate model simulations overestimate future sea-level rise
The melting rate of the Antarctic ice sheet is mainly controlled by the increase of ocean temperatures surrounding Antarctica. Using a new, higher-resolution climate model simulation, scientists from Utrecht University found a much slower ocean temperature increase compared to current simulations with a coarser resolution. Consequently, the projected sea-level rise in 100 years is about 25% lower than expected from the current simulations. These results are published today in the journal Science Advances.
Estimates for future sea-level rise are based on a large ensemble of climate model simulations. The output from these simulations helps to understand future climate change and its effects on the sea level. Climate researchers continually aim to improve these models, for example by using a much higher spatial resolution that takes more details into account. “High-resolution simulations can determine the ocean circulation much more accurately,†says Prof. Henk Dijkstra. Together with his Ph.D. candidate René van Westen, he has been studying ocean currents in high-resolution climate model simulations over the past few years.
https://www.thegwpf.com/climate-models-overestimate-future-sea-level-rise-by-up-to-25-new-study/
