5 ERCOT board members resign, according to report

[HoustonSam]

BS.  Yes it contributed, but we have our own @mrpotatohead to explain they were shutting down wells ahead of the storm due to the coming cold.

I am going to have to learn more first, but I am quite doubtful this is more than miscommunication/misunderstanding during chaos.

Thanks @thackney and @mrpotatohead; this is good ground-level insight to counter testimony offered with at least some motivation for bureaucratic self-preservation.

I suspect it will be a while before all the competing cause-effect issues can be sorted out; a combination of technical and policy responses is probably needed.  If I could pick one single human driver of last week's disaster, it would be that no one is really in charge during a crisis; decisions which are designed to be market-based (hence de-centralized) cannot be effectively coordinated in the heat of the moment.

[IsailedawayfromFR]

@thackney  I see that during yesterday's blame-storming fest in Austin the chairwoman of the TX RR Commission Christi Craddick testified that NG production in TX fell last week *because the producers lost electrical power*, not because of the cold; i.e. she testified that NG production in TX is sufficiently winterized to manage last week's temperatures : https://www.click2houston.com/news/texas/2021/02/26/after-tense-first-day-ercot-hearings-to-pick-back-up-this-morning/

Power plant executives offered similar testimony - they could have stayed on line producing power had they not themselves experienced blackouts driven by their utility companies : https://ca.finance.yahoo.com/news/fault-investigation-texas-blackout-begins-004047307.html

If true, this might shed a different light on the relative reliability of the NG portion of the generation grid.  Any thoughts?

The driver of choice in the oilpatch is electric motors on pumping units, so this makes total sense.

To put it another way, electric power => oil well production => NG production => NG into pipeline => NG power plant feed => Electric power production

Summary: No electric power, no nothing

Recommendaton:  Emphasis on making electric power from other than NG, such as coal or nuclear.

Alternative is to store NG nearby power plants to use as fuel

And anybody with a thread of knowledge of the energy industry could have come up with this simple analysis.  It is why we need technical people involved with the decision making of our grid reliable instead of a bunch of political hacks on the PUC>

Those hacks focused on bringing in more renewables into the grid that decreased the reliability of power generation during times like this and were oblivious to the consequences of these actions.

[GrouchoTex]

Thanks @thackney and @mrpotatohead; this is good ground-level insight to counter testimony offered with at least some motivation for bureaucratic self-preservation.

I suspect it will be a while before all the competing cause-effect issues can be sorted out; a combination of technical and policy responses is probably needed.  If I could pick one single human driver of last week's disaster, it would be that no one is really in charge during a crisis; decisions which are designed to be market-based (hence de-centralized) cannot be effectively coordinated in the heat of the moment.

There are a lot of moving parts to this.
No singular thing caused the lack of power.
The media, both left and right, are trying to simplify the blame down to single sources and causes.
Not so easy, or accurate, to do so.

[thackney]

I am still convinced there is blame at all levels in multiple industries and assigning a few scapegoats only means the real problems will still be with us next time.  There is not simple easy solutions to a problem this large and widespread.  Accept that and start prioritizing the fixes and get the problems much smaller for next time.

Catastrophic Texas power outages prompt finger pointing and blame shifting at legislative hearings
https://www.texastribune.org/2021/02/25/texas-house-senate-ercot/

...Earlier in the day, state Sen. John Whitmire, D-Houston, asked whether lawmakers should reexamine ERCOT’s governance structure.

“Y’all made us,” Magness said. “You should change us.”...

...“Some of the blame belongs right here in this building,” State Rep. Charlie Geren, R-Fort Worth, said Thursday. “There’s blame out there for everybody.”...

...“If the Legislature fails to mandate weatherization of pipelines or power plants, there are limits to how far the regulatory agencies can go to step beyond where the Legislature has given them direction,” Alison Silverstein, an Austin-based energy consultant who has advised state and federal agencies, said Wednesday on a virtual conference with other energy experts....

...The head of the PUC, DeAnn T. Walker, appeared before lawmakers on Thursday after Magness testified for roughly five hours....

...Later, in the House, Anchía quizzed Walker surrounding the PUC’s authority over ERCOT, concluding that the commission did have decision-making ability over the operator.

“It seems to me, comprehensive," Anchía said.

“We told you to report to us if you thought we were unprepared because we had promised our constituents, ‘This was not going to happen again,’ and we told PUC to take care of it," he said. "And we gave you power, we gave you rule-making authority to take care of it."

Anchía said the PUC was empowered to winterize with legislation passed in 2011, after frigid temperatures caused equipment failures and blackouts. He asked if the commission ever submitted a report as was it was authorized to in the bill. Walker answered no....

...The executives agreed: The entire energy system in Texas saw widespread problems that ultimately led to supply failing to meet demand. Texans demanded an amount of electricity normally not seen in the winter months. The power grid was not prepared for that level of demand or equipment failure due to freezing temperatures.

“The entire energy sector failed Texans, we know we can do better,” NRG Energy CEO Mauricio Gutierrez said. “And we must do better to make sure that this never happens again.”

Vistra Corp. CEO Curt Morgan acknowledged that his company could have performed better, but said the biggest problem they faced was disruptions in the state’s natural gas supply system, which was not prepared for the winter weather. Morgan instructed his employees to buy gas at any price, but they couldn’t get it at the pressures necessary. He said that even if all equipment was winterized, it wouldn’t have prevented gas interruptions....

...After the outages began, Abbott asked state lawmakers to mandate the winterization of generators and power plants, a proposal previously floated but not implemented by state leaders in the aftermath of another winter storm in 2011. And Abbott requested that lawmakers provide power companies with funding to make the necessary changes....

One way the state could have communicated the emergency better was through something similar to an amber alert, recommended state Sen. Angela Paxton, who left the state with her husband during the outages. Some of her colleagues agreed.  note by thackney ARE YOU KIDDING!  THIS IS A SOLUTION?!?!?!?!?!  ...

...Toward the end of the House committees' joint hearing, state Rep. Donna Howard, D-Austin, at times seemed to struggle to contain her frustration as testimony stretched past the 15-hour mark.

“Why are people not talking to each other? Why do we have this set up to where the PUC and ERCOT and the Railroad Commission and the Legislature and whoever else needs to be involved here, why are we not talking to each other?” she said. “I am dumbfounded by it. And I don’t want tonight to be the last thing we say about this.”...

[Bigun]

There are a lot of moving parts to this.
No singular thing caused the lack of power.
The media, both left and right, are trying to simplify the blame down to single sources and causes.
Not so easy, or accurate, to do so.

  Rows and rows of dominoes stood on end and all interconnected! WAY more complicated than it should be!

K.I.S.S.

[IsailedawayfromFR]

I am still convinced there is blame at all levels in multiple industries and assigning a few scapegoats only means the real problems will still be with us next time.  There is not simple easy solutions to a problem this large and widespread.  Accept that and start prioritizing the fixes and get the problems much smaller for next time.

Catastrophic Texas power outages prompt finger pointing and blame shifting at legislative hearings
https://www.texastribune.org/2021/02/25/texas-house-senate-ercot/

It is damning that the 2011 legislation empowering the PUC to spend funds to winterize was apparently not used and instead focused funds on deploying more unreliable renewables to the grid, as is still being done by offering renewable credits. 

Renewable Energy Credit

ERCOT acts as the program administrator of the Renewable Energy Credit (REC) trading program, which was established by the Public Utility Commission of Texas (PUCT) to (1) promote an additional 2,000 megawatts of new renewable energy capacity to be built in Texas by 2009, to be increased to 10,000 megawatts by 2025; and (2) allow customers to have access to providers of energy generated by renewable energy resources.

To earn RECs, a generator must be a new facility or a small producer that meets the requirements in PUCT Substantive Rule §25.173(c).

A facility is eligible to earn RECs if it relies exclusively on an energy source that is naturally regenerated such as solar, wind, geothermal, hydroelectric, wave/tidal, biomass or biomass-based waste products. The energy source can not be derived from fossil fuels, waste products from fossil fuels or waste products from inorganic sources.

Where to File: Applicants should visit the Renewable Energy Credit Program  website.

Who Should File: A generator that is a new facility or a small producer as defined in PUCT Substantive Rule 25.173(c), meets the requirements of 25.173 and would like to earn RECs is encouraged to file. All competitive retailers, as they are approved to do business in Texas, are required by law to register in the REC program and retire RECs annually. http://www.ercot.com/services/programs/rec/

Credits for renewables but nothing for reliability

[IsailedawayfromFR]

...Toward the end of the House committees' joint hearing, state Rep. Donna Howard, D-Austin, at times seemed to struggle to contain her frustration as testimony stretched past the 15-hour mark.

“Why are people not talking to each other? Why do we have this set up to where the PUC and ERCOT and the Railroad Commission and the Legislature and whoever else needs to be involved here, why are we not talking to each other?” she said. “I am dumbfounded by it. And I don’t want tonight to be the last thing we say about this.”...

They do talk to one another.  But only for peak summer time power usage as evidenced in this article.

RRC Chairman Craddick And PUC Chairman Walker Working To Ensure Availability Of Natural Gas For Electric Service This Summer
February 27, 2019
http://www.rrc.texas.gov/news/022719a-rrc-chairman-craddick-and-puc-chairman-walker-working-to-ensure-availability-of-natural-gas-for-electric-service-this-summer/

[IsailedawayfromFR]

Rows and rows of dominoes stood on end and all interconnected! WAY more complicated than it should be!

K.I.S.S.

K.I.S.S includes competency on who is in charge of managing the grid.

How many lawyers does it take to change a light bulb?

[Bigun]

K.I.S.S includes competency on who is in charge of managing the grid.

How many lawyers does it take to change a light bulb?

You bet your sweet bippy it does! I don't know the answer to your question as I have never seen a lawyer attempt to change one.

[IsailedawayfromFR]

You bet your sweet bippy it does! I don't know the answer to your question as I have never seen a lawyer attempt to change one.

Q: How many lawyers does it take to screw in a light bulb?

A1: How many can you afford?

A2: None, lawyers only screw us.

A3: It only takes one lawyer to change your light bulb to his light bulb.

A4: Three. One to do it and two to sue him for malpractice.

A5: Three. One to change it and two to keep interrupting by standing up and shouting "Objection!"

A6: Fifty four. Eight to argue, one to get a continuance, one to object one to demur, two to research precedents, one to dictate a letter, one to stipulate, five to turn in their time cards, one to depose, one to write interrogatories, two to settle, one to order a secretary to change the bulb, and twenty-eight to bill for professional services.

A7: 65. 42 to sue the power company for insufficiently supplying power, or negligent failure to prevent the surge that made the bulb burn out in the first place, 14 to sue the electrician who wired the house, and 9 to sue the bulb manufacturers.

A8: You won't find a lawyer who can change a light bulb. Now, if you're looking for a lawyer to screw a light bulb...

[Bigun]

Q: How many lawyers does it take to screw in a light bulb?

A1: How many can you afford?

A2: None, lawyers only screw us.

A3: It only takes one lawyer to change your light bulb to his light bulb.

A4: Three. One to do it and two to sue him for malpractice.

A5: Three. One to change it and two to keep interrupting by standing up and shouting "Objection!"

A6: Fifty four. Eight to argue, one to get a continuance, one to object one to demur, two to research precedents, one to dictate a letter, one to stipulate, five to turn in their time cards, one to depose, one to write interrogatories, two to settle, one to order a secretary to change the bulb, and twenty-eight to bill for professional services.

A7: 65. 42 to sue the power company for insufficiently supplying power, or negligent failure to prevent the surge that made the bulb burn out in the first place, 14 to sue the electrician who wired the house, and 9 to sue the bulb manufacturers.

A8: You won't find a lawyer who can change a light bulb. Now, if you're looking for a lawyer to screw a light bulb...

Sounds about right!   

[HoustonSam]

K.I.S.S includes competency on who is in charge of managing the grid.

I think that's a fundamental part of the problem - no one seems to know who is actually in charge during an emergency.

The de-regulated free market design includes as a feature that no one is in charge - buyers and sellers of power engage in free, voluntary transactions which establish a wholesale price - and I favor that for normal operations.  In an emergency some reversion to command/control is necessary and that doesn't seem to be defined well at all.

[Bigun]

I think that's a fundamental part of the problem - no one seems to know who is actually in charge during an emergency.

The de-regulated free market design includes as a feature that no one is in charge - buyers and sellers of power engage in free, voluntary transactions which establish a wholesale price - and I favor that for normal operations.  In an emergency some reversion to command/control is necessary and that doesn't seem to be defined well at all.

And it would be VERY helpful for the person in charge to have a working knowledge of the system he is in charge of I think.

[thackney]

The driver of choice in the oilpatch is electric motors on pumping units, so this makes total sense.

To put it another way, electric power => oil well production => NG production => NG into pipeline => NG power plant feed => Electric power production

Summary: No electric power, no nothing

And the primary means of keeping a gas or oil well flowing in subfreezing temperatures is electric heat trace (heating cable, covered in insulation).  No electric -> no heat -> freezing lines.  Oil and gas typically bring up water with their flow.

[GrouchoTex]

Rows and rows of dominoes stood on end and all interconnected! WAY more complicated than it should be!

K.I.S.S.

My point is that The left blames lack of green energy and the right blames too much reliance on green energy, and it just isn't that black and white.

[Bigun]

My point is that The left blames lack of green energy and the right blames too much reliance on green energy, and it just isn't that black and white.

Oh but it is!  Cut out the government props from under all that "green" energy crap and see how fast it disappears.

[GrouchoTex]

Oh but it is!  Cut out the government props from under all that "green" energy crap and see how fast it disappears.

That is one factor, but, naw, more too it than that.

De-regulation worked to keep our light bills down (somewhat) but gave power generators no incentive to provide backups or redundancy, so they didn't, so to keep their cost down and profits up.
Gas transmission stations are covered and heated in the great white north, but not here, and it would be expensive to do so, but a move should be underway to insulate them more somehow,
Channel 26 news in Houston also reported that the winterizing checks done in person each year were done virtually, if at all, due to  COVID concerns in 2020/2021.

There's 3 more reasons for you to ponder, and I haven't even mentioned ERCOT or the PUC yet.
Many things to fix and adjust.

[Bigun]

That is one factor, but, naw, more to it than that.

I disagree.  I see it as a matter of keeping things as simple as possible.

[GrouchoTex]

I disagree.  I see it as a matter of keeping things as simple as possible.

@Bigun
Guess we will have to agree to disagree on this one.
 

[thackney]

Oh but it is!  Cut out the government props from under all that "green" energy crap and see how fast it disappears.

If every Solar and Wind generator in Texas had been replaced with Nat Gas power plants, AND that those Nat Gas generators were properly winterized, we would have had more power outages.

We did not have Nat Gas supply enough to keep those that were available running.  More dependable and reliable power plants WITHOUT fuel does not solve our problem.

[Bigun]

@Bigun
Guess we will have to agree to disagree on this one.
 

I have no problem with disagreement.  I do have a real problem with circular arguments but I have never found you guilty of that.  @GrouchoTex

[Bigun]

If every Solar and Wind generator in Texas had been replaced with Nat Gas power plants, AND that those Nat Gas generators were properly winterized, we would have had more power outages.

We did not have Nat Gas supply enough to keep those that were available running.  More dependable and reliable power plants WITHOUT fuel does not solve our problem.

No doubt that is true if you believe that everything else would have been as it was had those things not been in the mix but I happen to not believe that.  @thackney

[IsailedawayfromFR]

Channel 26 news in Houston also reported that the winterizing checks done in person each year were done virtually, if at all, due to  COVID concerns in 2020/2021.

Doing a winterization check virtually instead of in person is a joke. 

What are the checkers afraid of, getting Covid from a pipeline?

[IsailedawayfromFR]

If every Solar and Wind generator in Texas had been replaced with Nat Gas power plants, AND that those Nat Gas generators were properly winterized, we would have had more power outages.

Your own graphs show that is not a true statement.  How can replacing Wind which produced almost nil during the storm with Natural Gas be worse than relying on Natural Gas?

And what you seem to be missing is that if there were more broader usage of natural gas as our power fuel, there would have been a more concerted effort to ensure the supply of fuel was less interrupted by nearby storage or by other means. 

The prevalent notion by those who control the grid, Ercot and the PUC, is we gain reliability of supply by varying the methods by which we get power onto the grid.  That is their way of propping up renewables.

That is a falsehood as we have proven with the absolute failure of renewables to provide ANY power during the freeze.  A continued fuel supply to natural gas generators had been consequently deprioritized as the grid operators believed, erroneously, that the renewables would be able to perform.  They are novelties, not to be relied upon.

That is the mistake of those who foist political episodes such as increasing renewables onto us instead of achieving the 'R' part of their name, Reliability.

[IsailedawayfromFR]

And this puts the lie to these fact checker claims:

Fact check: Renewable energy is not to blame for the Texas energy crisis
No, frozen wind turbines aren’t the main culprit for Texas’ power outages
No, Wind Farms Aren’t the Main Cause of the Texas Blackouts

The truth…
Renewable energy is why Texas has less natural gas and coal capacity than it would have had otherwise.
Frozen wind turbines are why coal-fired power plants were operating at >90% of capacity from February 9-14 and natural gas power plants were operating at 70% to more than 80% of capacity from February 11-14.
Wind farms aren’t the main cause of the Texas blackouts because most of them had already been knocked offline by freezing temperatures and ice… Nearly a week before the blackouts!
https://wattsupwiththat.com/2021/02/25/wind-was-operating-almost-as-well-as-expected-a-texas-sized-energy-lie/