Author Topic: 5 ERCOT board members resign, according to report  (Read 3034 times)

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Offline IsailedawayfromFR

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Re: 5 ERCOT board members resign, according to report
« Reply #25 on: February 25, 2021, 01:17:30 pm »
Very sorry to hear of your mother's experience @IsailedawayfromFR, and I hope she is resting comfortably now.

No, the grid certainly was not reliable last week and I agree that the fundamental failure is in political decisions, but it's not clear to me that those decision failures were by the PUC or by ERCOT.  The grid failed because it is not winterized, it's not winterized because there is no regulatory requirement that it be winterized, and there is no regulatory requirement because TX rarely sees the temperatures we experienced last week.

It is not my understanding that ERCOT has the authority to order generators, transmission companies, and pipeline operators to winterize.  Perhaps I'm wrong, but I haven't seen it reported anywhere that ERCOT is accountable for regulating the physical maintenance of the grid.  ERCOT is accountable to monitor the balance between generation capacity and power demand, and they did that.

Does the PUC have the authority to order winterization?  I don't know, perhaps they do.  But the organization that unquestionably DOES have that authority is the TX State Legislature.   When the law is inadequate, it's the job of law makers, not executives, to make the law adequate, either by direct legislation or by delegating authority for administrative law to an appropriate agency.  I don't want appointees to commissions and boards asserting the right to make law and I'm pretty sure you don't either.

So yes, it's fundamentally a political issue, but the undergraduate majors of the PUC members and the home mailing addresses of the ERCOT board are irrelevant distractions.  PUC and ERCOT can only operate within the authority they have been given by the legislature and I haven't seen it documented anywhere that either of them have been given the authority to order winterization of grid assets.
This is not just a case of freezing pipes as you suggest.

It is a case of spending tax dollars to subsidize and prioritize unreliable power systems like wind power while shutting down cheaper and much more reliable coal derived power.

It is about failing miserably to recognize that reliance upon natural gas power by pipeline alone gives no contingency should that supply become interrupted.

The power heroes in our political world have been awarding accolades to those who bring about the so-called renewables into the world, disregarding whether these are in fact environmentally better than what they replace.

When is the last time anyone in our government actually suggested reliability of base power supply should be a concern?  If it were, we should be subsidizing coal and nuclear rather than yoking them with ever increasing fiats.

Another thing on winterization.  Why install assets that will not take the winter climates thrown at them, such as solar or wind?  As I understand it, government demands preference for these to operate and provide power over hydrocarbon power production.  Any preferences like that certainly weaken hydrocarbon power plant prioritization, while weakening our abilities to withstand future colder weather.
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Offline thackney

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Re: 5 ERCOT board members resign, according to report
« Reply #26 on: February 25, 2021, 01:21:22 pm »
Here is another piece of the puzzle.

In addition to ERCOT reporting to the PUC, they also follow the standards of NERC.

As of June 18, 2007, the U.S. Federal Energy Regulatory Commission (FERC) granted NERC the legal authority to enforce
Reliability Standards with all U.S. users, owners, and operators of the BPS, and made compliance with those standards
mandatory and enforceable.

Does ERCOT meet these standards of Reliability?  Are the standards insufficient and need to be modified?




https://www.nerc.com/files/IVGTF_Task_1_5_Final.pdf
« Last Edit: February 25, 2021, 01:22:31 pm by thackney »
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Offline HoustonSam

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Re: 5 ERCOT board members resign, according to report
« Reply #27 on: February 25, 2021, 01:41:32 pm »
This is not just a case of freezing pipes as you suggest.

It is a case of spending tax dollars to subsidize and prioritize unreliable power systems like wind power while shutting down cheaper and much more reliable coal derived power.

It is about failing miserably to recognize that reliance upon natural gas power by pipeline alone gives no contingency should that supply become interrupted.

You and I are in complete agreement that subsidies and tax breaks should not artificially favor one generation technology over another in a market.  If we're going to leave it to markets to select the winners and losers, each contestant has to stand on its own two feet.  Perhaps a subsidy is merited to maintain a more reliable, but less cost-effective, source of energy, but it means consumers pay an inflated price every day in exchange for that reliability for a few days in a decade.

If last week doesn't teach that reliability is critical then nothing will ever teach it.  I don't know what that means for specific generation technologies; I would like to see a more clear analysis of the freeze-driven failures of each technology last week in per cent terms, and a better presentation of how the various technologies are included "in the mix" as the seasons change during the year.  I've seen arguments here that wind was a very small part of the mix going in to last weekend so the absolute magnitude of its failure was immaterial; I've also seen that wind had been a much larger part of the mix just one week earlier.

I think the Achilles heel of "renewables" is not weather resistance so much as their intermittent nature, requiring redundant capacity and as-yet-uninvented energy storage capabilities.  I suppose that's just a fancy way of saying they are inherently unreliable and thus require huge additional capital investment to compensate.
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Offline HoustonSam

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Re: 5 ERCOT board members resign, according to report
« Reply #28 on: February 25, 2021, 01:48:57 pm »
As of June 18, 2007, the U.S. Federal Energy Regulatory Commission (FERC) granted NERC the legal authority to enforce
Reliability Standards with all U.S. users, owners, and operators of the BPS, and made compliance with those standards
mandatory and enforceable.

Does that mean the grid in TX *is* within the jurisdiction of federal regs, in spite of everything that's been reported in the last week?  And if so, how specifically is ERCOT "on the hook" for that accountability and is there evidence for some kind of federal crime in last week's failure?
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Offline sneakypete

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Re: 5 ERCOT board members resign, according to report
« Reply #29 on: February 25, 2021, 01:48:59 pm »
Very sorry to hear of your mother's experience @IsailedawayfromFR, and I hope she is resting comfortably now.

No, the grid certainly was not reliable last week and I agree that the fundamental failure is in political decisions, but it's not clear to me that those decision failures were by the PUC or by ERCOT.  The grid failed because it is not winterized, it's not winterized because there is no regulatory requirement that it be winterized, and there is no regulatory requirement because TX rarely sees the temperatures we experienced last week.

It is not my understanding that ERCOT has the authority to order generators, transmission companies, and pipeline operators to winterize.  Perhaps I'm wrong, but I haven't seen it reported anywhere that ERCOT is accountable for regulating the physical maintenance of the grid.  ERCOT is accountable to monitor the balance between generation capacity and power demand, and they did that.

Does the PUC have the authority to order winterization?  I don't know, perhaps they do.  But the organization that unquestionably DOES have that authority is the TX State Legislature.   When the law is inadequate, it's the job of law makers, not executives, to make the law adequate, either by direct legislation or by delegating authority for administrative law to an appropriate agency.  I don't want appointees to commissions and boards asserting the right to make law and I'm pretty sure you don't either.

So yes, it's fundamentally a political issue, but the undergraduate majors of the PUC members and the home mailing addresses of the ERCOT board are irrelevant distractions.  PUC and ERCOT can only operate within the authority they have been given by the legislature and I haven't seen it documented anywhere that either of them have been given the authority to order winterization of grid assets.

@HoustonSam

Not that I think politicians would try to shift the blame away from themselves,but  :yowsa: :yowsa:
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Offline thackney

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Re: 5 ERCOT board members resign, according to report
« Reply #30 on: February 25, 2021, 01:55:43 pm »
Does that mean the grid in TX *is* within the jurisdiction of federal regs, in spite of everything that's been reported in the last week?  And if so, how specifically is ERCOT "on the hook" for that accountability and is there evidence for some kind of federal crime in last week's failure?

I see a lot of shades of grey in this issue, and a LOT of equipment that has to change in multiple industries to prevent it from happening again.  Water supply has lots of problems as does the Nat Gas system, but people are mostly focused on Electric Generation.

This storm was so bad that Canada had significant Nat Gas supplies shut down from the cold.  Exactly what standard do you build for?  Some standards become conflicting.  Building Nat Gas Power turbines inside heated building instead of open structures makes our summers requiring derating of units capacity during the summer peak electrical demand.
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Offline dfwgator

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Re: 5 ERCOT board members resign, according to report
« Reply #31 on: February 25, 2021, 01:58:03 pm »
E(energy) R(reliability) C(Commission) O(f) T(exas)

They are supposed to ensure that Texas has a reliable power grid and they totally failed to do that.  They should ALL resign!

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Offline dfwgator

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Re: 5 ERCOT board members resign, according to report
« Reply #32 on: February 25, 2021, 01:59:32 pm »


In my world of management, one is responsible and is accountable for personnel selection.  Apparently, in your management world, you are like Abbott when he says "But they told me it would be reliable."


First Rule of Leadership:  EVERYTHING is YOUR Fault!

Offline IsailedawayfromFR

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Re: 5 ERCOT board members resign, according to report
« Reply #33 on: February 25, 2021, 02:12:07 pm »
You and I are in complete agreement that subsidies and tax breaks should not artificially favor one generation technology over another in a market.  If we're going to leave it to markets to select the winners and losers, each contestant has to stand on its own two feet.  Perhaps a subsidy is merited to maintain a more reliable, but less cost-effective, source of energy, but it means consumers pay an inflated price every day in exchange for that reliability for a few days in a decade.

If last week doesn't teach that reliability is critical then nothing will ever teach it.  I don't know what that means for specific generation technologies; I would like to see a more clear analysis of the freeze-driven failures of each technology last week in per cent terms, and a better presentation of how the various technologies are included "in the mix" as the seasons change during the year.  I've seen arguments here that wind was a very small part of the mix going in to last weekend so the absolute magnitude of its failure was immaterial; I've also seen that wind had been a much larger part of the mix just one week earlier.

I think the Achilles heel of "renewables" is not weather resistance so much as their intermittent nature, requiring redundant capacity and as-yet-uninvented energy storage capabilities.  I suppose that's just a fancy way of saying they are inherently unreliable and thus require huge additional capital investment to compensate.
I understand what you are conveying and we seem to be mostly in agreement.

I will point out a couple of things:

One, wind power has preferences over other power generation, so the week before it was robust because of this and weather did not impact it.  It is why natural gas and coal were both reduced.  Both coal and gas had to step in to replace the loss of wind power when the weather affected it.  You seem to suggest that during the freeze that wind was such a small part of the problem that it was not a primary issue for the lack of power to the grid, oddly because it was already out of the mix.  Don't you find that odd?  It is supposed to generate power and when it does not, it is not its fault?  The overall fact is that wind cannot step in when needed, so why is it there in the first place if one needs reliability as well as power generation?  It fails on one side of the coin.  Wind and solar to me are considered novelties, and should never be relied upon without substantial backup with other, more reliable systems.

Second, you also suggest a subsidy for ensuring more reliability may be needed.  Simply taking an unreliable power generation scheme out of the mix will provide that reliability as more strength toward installing and operating other reliable systems will exist.  Also, the most reliable power generation by far is coal and nuclear, and both are faced with increasingly onerous regulations that threaten their survival.

Texas requires political leadership that stands up to the imposition of these regulations and asserts its sovereign rights to decide what is best for its citizens rather than to permit dictates from unaccountable DC bureaucrats to decide.  If Texans suffer or die from bad decisions, we want state accountability we can change out.  We do not need just politicians who receive accolades from the wind energy like Abbott.

« Last Edit: February 25, 2021, 02:16:39 pm by IsailedawayfromFR »
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Offline Bigun

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Re: 5 ERCOT board members resign, according to report
« Reply #34 on: February 25, 2021, 02:24:45 pm »
Very sorry to hear of your mother's experience @IsailedawayfromFR, and I hope she is resting comfortably now.

No, the grid certainly was not reliable last week and I agree that the fundamental failure is in political decisions, but it's not clear to me that those decision failures were by the PUC or by ERCOT.  The grid failed because it is not winterized, it's not winterized because there is no regulatory requirement that it be winterized, and there is no regulatory requirement because TX rarely sees the temperatures we experienced last week.

It is not my understanding that ERCOT has the authority to order generators, transmission companies, and pipeline operators to winterize.  Perhaps I'm wrong, but I haven't seen it reported anywhere that ERCOT is accountable for regulating the physical maintenance of the grid.  ERCOT is accountable to monitor the balance between generation capacity and power demand, and they did that.

Does the PUC have the authority to order winterization?  I don't know, perhaps they do.  But the organization that unquestionably DOES have that authority is the TX State Legislature.   When the law is inadequate, it's the job of law makers, not executives, to make the law adequate, either by direct legislation or by delegating authority for administrative law to an appropriate agency.  I don't want appointees to commissions and boards asserting the right to make law and I'm pretty sure you don't either.

So yes, it's fundamentally a political issue, but the undergraduate majors of the PUC members and the home mailing addresses of the ERCOT board are irrelevant distractions.  PUC and ERCOT can only operate within the authority they have been given by the legislature and I haven't seen it documented anywhere that either of them have been given the authority to order winterization of grid assets.

As far as I know, ERCOT has no ability to order anyone to winterize anything but IMHO no one should ever need to do that.  If your business is to generate and sell electricity, it seems to me that it is in your best interest to make sure you can do that at all times.  YOU CANNOT SELL WHAT YOU DO NOT GENERATE. It's the same with Natural Gas suppliers as well.

Beyond that, I hold the government (both state and federal) culpable for tilting the table in favor of highly unreliable (green) generators and away from proven reliable generators. THAT should end immediately as the marketplace cannot work its magic under those conditions. No government subsidies to anyone and let the market rule.

@HoustonSam
"I wish it need not have happened in my time," said Frodo.

"So do I," said Gandalf, "and so do all who live to see such times. But that is not for them to decide. All we have to decide is what to do with the time that is given us."
- J. R. R. Tolkien

Offline Bigun

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Re: 5 ERCOT board members resign, according to report
« Reply #35 on: February 25, 2021, 02:30:41 pm »
Also, the most reliable power generation by far is coal and nuclear, and both are faced with increasingly onerous regulations that threaten their survival.


 :yowsa: If we stopped subsidizing the unreliable methods of generation and ended the needless overregulation you speak of The marketplace would resolve the probems for us in no time. @IsailedawayfromFR @HoustonSam
"I wish it need not have happened in my time," said Frodo.

"So do I," said Gandalf, "and so do all who live to see such times. But that is not for them to decide. All we have to decide is what to do with the time that is given us."
- J. R. R. Tolkien

Offline HoustonSam

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Re: 5 ERCOT board members resign, according to report
« Reply #36 on: February 25, 2021, 02:43:59 pm »
.... If your business is to generate and sell electricity, it seems to me that it is in your best interest to make sure you can do that at all times.  YOU CANNOT SELL WHAT YOU DO NOT GENERATE. It's the same with Natural Gas suppliers as well.

But they didn't winterize @Bigun .  If it's just plain good business to do so, then why didn't they?  Are they not good businessmen?  I think they calculated that it's better for their bottom line to shut down and lose revenue for, say, five days out of a decade, than to pay the cost of winterizing for 3650 days out of a decade.

In my industry we are very guilty of chasing revenue rather than profit.  I think the power generators are better businessmen and recognize that their bottom line, not their top line, is what matters; they can give up those five days of revenue in exchange for 3645 days of higher profit.  But that leaves the consumers at risk of the kind of disaster we experienced last week; if we're going to avoid that disaster again I think we'll need a legal obligation for the companies that participate in the grid to demonstrate winterization to some standard.  It will be very difficult to figure that out and make it work, but last week's consequences are just too severe to risk again, in my opinion.

Quote
Beyond that, I hold the government (both state and federal) culpable for tilting the table in favor of highly unreliable (green) generators and away from proven reliable generators. THAT should end immediately as the marketplace cannot work its magic under those conditions. No government subsidies to anyone and let the market rule.

I join you in opposing subsidies to some generators over others; let them fight it out on fair ground and the best man should win.  I think it's still unproven whether the green generators were more affected by cold last week than the traditional generators.
« Last Edit: February 25, 2021, 02:49:22 pm by HoustonSam »
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Offline HoustonSam

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Re: 5 ERCOT board members resign, according to report
« Reply #37 on: February 25, 2021, 02:47:32 pm »
I understand what you are conveying and we seem to be mostly in agreement.

We're in close agreement, just using different words.
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Offline thackney

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Re: 5 ERCOT board members resign, according to report
« Reply #38 on: February 25, 2021, 02:49:14 pm »
Both coal and nuclear had similar problems in Texas.  Only requiring more of them does not solve the problem.  We haven't built a coal or nuclear plant in Texas for a long time.  It has been 10 years since the last coal plant built in the lower 48.

If every wind and solar facility was replaced with Nat Gas AND winterized to keep running in the weather, our problems would have been WORSE last week.  MORE power would have gone offline and MORE people would have been out of power.  We did not have enough gas available to serve the amount we did have available to run.

We haven't built a coal or nuclear plant in Texas for a long time.  It has been 10 years since the last coal plant built in the lower 48.

Ercot has neither the responsibility nor the authority to require fuel types.  This stupid blame game is going to keep the problems from getting fixed.
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Offline HoustonSam

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Re: 5 ERCOT board members resign, according to report
« Reply #39 on: February 25, 2021, 02:53:49 pm »
Both coal and nuclear had similar problems in Texas.  Only requiring more of them does not solve the problem.  We haven't built a coal or nuclear plant in Texas for a long time.  It has been 10 years since the last coal plant built in the lower 48.

If every wind and solar facility was replaced with Nat Gas AND winterized to keep running in the weather, our problems would have been WORSE last week.  MORE power would have gone offline and MORE people would have been out of power.  We did not have enough gas available to serve the amount we did have available to run.

We haven't built a coal or nuclear plant in Texas for a long time.  It has been 10 years since the last coal plant built in the lower 48.

Ercot has neither the responsibility nor the authority to require fuel types.  This stupid blame game is going to keep the problems from getting fixed.

Granted that coal and nukes in fact are *not* being built; I think the argument is that they *should* be built.  Would coal and nukes be less vulnerable, not invulnerable but less vulnerable, to the kind of weather we saw last week?
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Offline thackney

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Re: 5 ERCOT board members resign, according to report
« Reply #40 on: February 25, 2021, 02:56:31 pm »
But they didn't winterize @Bigun .  If it's just plain good business to do so, then why didn't they?  Are they not good businessmen?  I think they calculated that it's better for their bottom line to shut down and lose revenue for, say, five days out of a decade, than to pay the cost of winterizing for 3650 days out of a decade.

I believe it was more a case of not realizing just how bad the cold could get, how widespread and for how long.

More than just not getting to supply power, that $9,000 per MWH is not just the bonus to supply extra power, it is also the applied penalty for contracting to supply power and not delivering.

Quote
...There is an offer cap placed on the wholesale market price. The maximum wholesale market
price for electricity is reserved for extreme scarcity conditions to encourage any and all
generation able to come online. These peak prices are paid by wholesale buyers that
have failed to purchase power in advance to hedge risk exposure for their customers.
They are also paid by generators who do not generate power that they have committed
to provide.
This acts as a penalty for generators who fail to show up when needed....

https://www.puc.texas.gov/consumer/facts/factsheets/elecfacts/WinterStormPriceExplainer-FIN.pdf
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Offline thackney

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Re: 5 ERCOT board members resign, according to report
« Reply #41 on: February 25, 2021, 03:00:08 pm »
Granted that coal and nukes in fact are *not* being built; I think the argument is that they *should* be built.  Would coal and nukes be less vulnerable, not invulnerable but less vulnerable, to the kind of weather we saw last week?

Coal dropped ~30% and Nuke ~20%.  Nat Gas maybe ~35% but some of that was fuel supply from others.

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Offline thackney

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Re: 5 ERCOT board members resign, according to report
« Reply #42 on: February 25, 2021, 03:03:53 pm »
Granted that coal and nukes in fact are *not* being built; I think the argument is that they *should* be built.  Would coal and nukes be less vulnerable, not invulnerable but less vulnerable, to the kind of weather we saw last week?

Anyone remember this?

In a brief order on Monday, FERC rejected the DOE's Notice of Proposed Rulemaking (NOPR), which would have provided cost recovery for power plants that keep 90 days of fuel onsite. Instead, the Commission asked regional grid operators to review an extensive list of questions about improving power system resilience and report back within 60 days.

https://www.utilitydive.com/news/ferc-rejects-doe-nopr-kicking-resilience-issue-to-grid-operators/514334/
Jan. 8, 2018

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Offline HoustonSam

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Re: 5 ERCOT board members resign, according to report
« Reply #43 on: February 25, 2021, 03:06:15 pm »
More than just not getting to supply power, that $9,000 per MWH is not just the bonus to supply extra power, it is also the applied penalty for contracting to supply power and not delivering.

Excellent point, which you had shared earlier.  So that can be as much as an $18,000/MWH net penalty (losing the revenue AND paying the penalty) on the generators who "tripped off" Sunday and early Monday AM, presumably paid for every committed MWH until they came back on line.  I wonder whether there is a Force Majeure provision, and if so, how it would apply to the generators' inability to get NG versus their decision to forego adequate winterization.

I don't know what sort of profit margin they routinely get; I would still like to see the numbers run on a few days paying that penalty versus many days at higher profit margin due to lower operating costs.
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Offline IsailedawayfromFR

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Re: 5 ERCOT board members resign, according to report
« Reply #44 on: February 25, 2021, 03:12:32 pm »
Both coal and nuclear had similar problems in Texas.  Only requiring more of them does not solve the problem.  We haven't built a coal or nuclear plant in Texas for a long time.  It has been 10 years since the last coal plant built in the lower 48.

If every wind and solar facility was replaced with Nat Gas AND winterized to keep running in the weather, our problems would have been WORSE last week.  MORE power would have gone offline and MORE people would have been out of power.  We did not have enough gas available to serve the amount we did have available to run.

We haven't built a coal or nuclear plant in Texas for a long time.  It has been 10 years since the last coal plant built in the lower 48.

Ercot has neither the responsibility nor the authority to require fuel types.  This stupid blame game is going to keep the problems from getting fixed.
How could our problems be worse using natural gas if the contribution from wind and solar was negligible during the freeze?  That makes no sense whatsover because wind was already essentially offline.

And one does not simply assume we use natural gas the way we are.  A prudent and operationally astute regulatory authority would have recognized the threat of online deliveries via pipeline alone as a fuel supply was an unreliable mechanism to support reliable power generation during severe weather and implemented strategies beforehand to accommodate a more ready supply via storage.

Instead, the regulatory authority existing emphasized the usage of unreliable power generation systems such as wind and ensured we achieve greater losses when they went down during the storm.
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Offline HoustonSam

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Re: 5 ERCOT board members resign, according to report
« Reply #45 on: February 25, 2021, 03:15:52 pm »
Coal dropped ~30% and Nuke ~20%.  Nat Gas maybe ~35% but some of that was fuel supply from others.

Thanks, you had shared this chart earlier but I failed to pay adequate attention.  So these data suggest some differences in cold weather resiliency, but still significant vulnerability for coal and nukes also.

Why do you think wind dropped so much one week before the front hit?
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Re: 5 ERCOT board members resign, according to report
« Reply #46 on: February 25, 2021, 03:20:14 pm »
Quote
I think it's still unproven whether the green generators were more affected by cold last week than the traditional generators.

Basic science should tell you that they were. Airfoils CANNOT work when they become loaded up with snow and ice and it's the exact same with solar except clouds, bird droppings, and tumbleweeds work just as well as snow and ice for them.
"I wish it need not have happened in my time," said Frodo.

"So do I," said Gandalf, "and so do all who live to see such times. But that is not for them to decide. All we have to decide is what to do with the time that is given us."
- J. R. R. Tolkien

Offline HoustonSam

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Re: 5 ERCOT board members resign, according to report
« Reply #47 on: February 25, 2021, 03:21:51 pm »
Anyone remember this?

In a brief order on Monday, FERC rejected the DOE's Notice of Proposed Rulemaking (NOPR), which would have provided cost recovery for power plants that keep 90 days of fuel onsite. Instead, the Commission asked regional grid operators to review an extensive list of questions about improving power system resilience and report back within 60 days.

https://www.utilitydive.com/news/ferc-rejects-doe-nopr-kicking-resilience-issue-to-grid-operators/514334/
Jan. 8, 2018

I certainly do not remember that.  It seems to really break against coal, which presumably can be piled up and ready to use, and nukes, which don't have to receive fuel regularly, and to favor solar and wind and even NG generation, which can't store their fuel for later use. 

Stated differently it disables a good method for improving reliability.
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Offline HoustonSam

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Re: 5 ERCOT board members resign, according to report
« Reply #48 on: February 25, 2021, 03:25:02 pm »
Basic science should tell you that they were. Airfoils CANNOT work when they become loaded up with snow and ice and it's the exact same with solar except clouds, bird droppings, and tumbleweeds work just as well as snow and ice for them.

That tells me they were affected, not that they were more affected.  @thackney has shared the actual data above, and it doesn't show that the "renewables" were more vulnerable to the cold.

And just to be clear, I'm not an advocate of "renewables."
James 1:20

Offline thackney

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Re: 5 ERCOT board members resign, according to report
« Reply #49 on: February 25, 2021, 03:28:11 pm »
Excellent point, which you had shared earlier.  So that can be as much as an $18,000/MWH net penalty (losing the revenue AND paying the penalty) on the generators who "tripped off" Sunday and early Monday AM, presumably paid for every committed MWH until they came back on line.  I wonder whether there is a Force Majeure provision, and if so, how it would apply to the generators' inability to get NG versus their decision to forego adequate winterization.

I don't know what sort of profit margin they routinely get; I would still like to see the numbers run on a few days paying that penalty versus many days at higher profit margin due to lower operating costs.

I don't think you can fully double dip that in cost justification.  You could earn that much with surplus capacity above what you already contracted to deliver.  But if you had not contracted to deliver power, you could not be charged the penalty.
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