Texas Winter Storm Highlights The Importance Of Fossil Fuels

[Elderberry]

Oil Price By Irina Slav - Feb 16, 2021

The message that we need to electrify everything that currently uses fossil fuels to generate energy has become the dominant message of the energy transition. Solar, wind, and energy storage—perhaps with the help of hydropower and some nuclear—can handle the energy needs of mankind, the argument goes, and do it with a much lower carbon footprint.

Yet, the Arctic cold wave that is sweeping across the United States has seriously undermined this argument.

Natural gas prices exploded last week in many parts of the U.S. and are still rising higher, as are electricity prices. In Texas, a state unaccustomed to such weather, wholesale electricity prices hit $9,000 per MWh on the spot market, prompting at least one retail power supplier to urge its clients to switch to another provider to avoid huge utility bills.

Blackouts are now a fact, with two million households across Texas without power at the time of writing. Authorities, meanwhile, are urging people to conserve energy by limiting their consumption. ERCOT has said the blackouts will be rolling, lasting for 45 minutes per area. This may not be a lot, but it does indicate the presence of a problem.

Texas, the Wind Capital of the U.S.

Texas is the biggest producer of wind energy in the United States.

Unfortunately, the state saw half of its wind turbines frozen by the icy winds blowing from Canada to parts of the U.S. that were unaccustomed to such temperatures. Of a total 25 GW in wind power capacity, 12 GW were knocked out by the freezing spell. At the same time, there is a shortage of natural gas, likely because of the sudden spike in demand. And it could get worse.

More: https://oilprice.com/Energy/Energy-General/Texas-Winter-Storm-Highlights-The-Importance-Of-Fossil-Fuels.html

[IsailedawayfromFR]

One other thing about using electricity:  batteries are woefully poor during really cold weather.

[thackney]

...wind power capacity, 12 GW were knocked out by the freezing spell...

And 30 GW of Nat Gas and Coal went off line as well.

[HoustonSam]

And 30 GW of Nat Gas and Coal went off line as well.

Given the horizontal bar chart of 2019 generation sources you posted in a different thread @thackney, with NG + coal accounting for 2/3 of capacity while losing 30 GW and wind accounting for 1/5 of capacity while losing 12 GW, is it safe to conclude that wind suffered a greater proportional loss in capacity?

[Smokin Joe]

An awful lot of Natural Gas is a byproduct of oil production. Shut in oil wells, the supply of Natural Gas diminishes.

[thackney]

Given the horizontal bar chart of 2019 generation sources you posted in a different thread @thackney, with NG + coal accounting for 2/3 of capacity while losing 30 GW and wind accounting for 1/5 of capacity while losing 12 GW, is it safe to conclude that wind suffered a greater proportional loss in capacity?

@HoustonSam

First, I do not think 18 GW is correct.

"...It’s estimated that about 80% of the grid’s capacity, or 67 gigawatts, could be generated by natural gas, coal and some nuclear power. Only 7% of ERCOT’s forecasted winter capacity, or 6 gigawatts, was expected to come from various wind power sources across the state.

Woodfin said Tuesday that 16 gigawatts of renewable energy generation, mostly wind generation, are offline and that 30 gigawatts of thermal sources, which include gas, coal and nuclear energy, are offline...."

https://www.texastribune.org/2021/02/16/natural-gas-power-storm/

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Secondly, Wind is never reliable.  Ercot plans for this winter had very little expectation of power from them.

Seasonal Assessment of Resource Adequacy for the ERCOT Region (SARA)
Winter 2020/2021
http://www.ercot.com/content/wcm/lists/197378/SARA-PreliminaryWinter2020-2021.pdf

Operational Resources (thermal and hydro), MW 67,547
Capacity from Private Use Networks, MW 3,631
Coastal Wind, Peak Average Capacity Contribution, MW 1,480
Panhandle Wind, Peak Average Capacity Contribution, MW 1,411
Other Wind, Peak Average Capacity Contribution, MW 3,251
Solar Utility-Scale, Peak Average Capacity Contribution, MW 254

[HoustonSam]

.......Only 7% of ERCOT’s forecasted winter capacity, or 6 gigawatts, was expected to come from various wind power sources across the state.
......Secondly, Wind is never reliable.  Ercot plans for this winter had very little expectation of power from them.

Thanks @thackney.  While I am highly skeptical of anything carrying the "green, sustainable" label, a close look at the numbers suggests that frozen windmills are not really the root cause of the current problem; the weather shut everything down.

What do you think of the argument that more effective winterization aka "hardening" should be required by law?  Might there be some "sweet spot" that would equip the generation infrastructure to withstand a once-per-generation winter without making every-summer operations cost prohibitive? 

Usually I would prefer that market forces determine how a private company, like a power generator, chooses to operate, but the profit incentive to the generator seems to exclude the dire consequences of once-per-generation failures like we've seen this week.  Even as a free market man, I find this week's outcome so unacceptable that I wonder whether there is room for some swing toward greater regulation.

[thackney]

Thanks @thackney.  While I am highly skeptical of anything carrying the "green, sustainable" label, a close look at the numbers suggests that frozen windmills are not really the root cause of the current problem; the weather shut everything down.

While damn near everything contributed to the problem in Texas this week, Natural Gas Supply was the biggest single impact.

What do you think of the argument that more effective winterization aka "hardening" should be required by law?  Might there be some "sweet spot" that would equip the generation infrastructure to withstand a once-per-generation winter without making every-summer operations cost prohibitive?

I think there will likely be some bare minimum cold weather requirements put in place to operate on the grid.  But in reality, it will be really tough to enforce beyond a certificate from a Registered Professional Engineer like me.  And honestly, that is worthless.  Too many PEs out there willing to sign anything for dollars.  I know, I've hired a few to get stamped drawings submitted in other states for pipeline projects.

Usually I would prefer that market forces determine how a private company, like a power generator, chooses to operate, but the profit incentive to the generator seems to exclude the dire consequences of once-per-generation failures like we've seen this week.  Even as a free market man, I find this week's outcome so unacceptable that I wonder whether there is room for some swing toward greater regulation.

Same here, and there was huge money to be made if you could sell power to the grid this week.