If Texas turns blue, can Republicans ever win the White House again? By Joseph Curl

[mystery-ak]

If Texas turns blue, can Republicans ever win the White House again?

With a whopping 38 electoral votes, GOP would have slim path without Lone Star State.


By Joseph Curl

Updated: December 25, 2020 - 11:03pm

Let's start in 2000. That year, former Texas Gov. George W. Bush absolutely annihilated Democrat Al Gore in Texas, winning 59.3% of the vote to Gore's 37.9%. Bush won by 1.3 million votes of about 6 million cast.

Bush crushed Democrat John Kerry in 2004, 61.1% to 38.2%. That time he won by nearly 1.7 million votes of some 7 million ballots cast.

But things began to change when Barack Obama ran for president. While the late Sen. John McCain defeated the Democrat in 2008, he got just 55.4% of the vote to Obama's 43.6%. And McCain won by fewer than 1 million votes of about 8 million ballots cast.

Utah Sen. Mitt Romney took the margin back above that million-vote mark, defeating Obama in Texas by more than 1.2 million votes of about 8 million ballots cast as he took the state by 57.1% to 41.3%.

Yet President Trump couldn't match those numbers in 2016. He won 52.1% to Democrat Hillary Clinton's 43.1%. And he won by slightly more than 800,000 votes of some 8.5 million cast.

Things got worse in 2020, when Trump got 52.1% of the vote to Joe Biden's 46.5%. While a win, his margin was just more than 600,000 votes — of nearly 11 million cast.

You read that right: 11 million. That's double the number of votes cast in the state in 1996.

more
https://justthenews.com/politics-policy/elections/if-texas-turns-blue-can-republicans-ever-win-white-house-again

[jmyrlefuller]

Keep in mind about those 2000/2004 numbers, though: George W. Bush was governor of Texas. There was definitely a 'native son' effect there.

Texas always has been closer than the eye appears, but wider than its demographics might suggest.

[Knox27]

This reasoning that if a state "turns blue", can Republicans win is kind of silly.  Blue states can turn red, red states blue...its really just about if the republican message and accomplishments appeal more than that of the democrats.

Its pointless wondering if Texas will turn blue...spend the time wondering why people are voting the the democrat over the republican.

Implied in all this is that more Hispanics means Republicans are doomed, which is a false statement.  Its the genetic fallacy.  Ironically if Republicans fall for it, it will become something a a self fulfilling prophecy.

[libertybele]

This reasoning that if a state "turns blue", can Republicans win is kind of silly.  Blue states can turn red, red states blue...its really just about if the republican message and accomplishments appeal more than that of the democrats.

Its pointless wondering if Texas will turn blue...spend the time wondering why people are voting the the democrat over the republican.

Implied in all this is that more Hispanics means Republicans are doomed, which is a false statement.  Its the genetic fallacy.  Ironically if Republicans fall for it, it will become something a a self fulfilling prophecy.

No.  It isn't pointless, because the answer is definitely not.  Demographics are changing because of illegal immigration, asylum, people fleeing blue states to red states and in essence the possibility is becoming more and more likely that many states that were red will turn blue.  Not the opposite. Why would anyone in their right mind flee a red state for a blue one?

Secondly, the DEMS will be sure once they obtain the majority in both houses (and it looks like they will have the majority in all houses soon) that asylum and voting rights will be granted (I've mentioned this a gazilion times before) and there will be no way mathematically that there will ever be a GOP seated again anyways.

[Knox27]

No.  It isn't pointless, because the answer is definitely not.  Demographics are changing because of illegal immigration, asylum, people fleeing blue states to red states and in essence the possibility is becoming more and more likely that many states that were red will turn blue.  Not the opposite. Why would anyone in their right mind flee a red state for a blue one?

Secondly, the DEMS will be sure once they obtain the majority in both houses (and it looks like they will have the majority in all houses soon) that asylum and voting rights will be granted (I've mentioned this a gazilion times before) and there will be no way mathematically that there will ever be a GOP seated again anyways.

Why? Is there something about having american indigenous peoples blood that makes some people not able to vote republican?  Or African or Asian?  The problem with that view is that if you say a group of people will vote only left, you are abandoning them as voters and then *that* is why you lose.

And plenty of people can't wait to get out of Alabama or Mississippi or Kansas.  Id be miserable there.  So yeah, people will absolutely move out of red states into blue ones and still be on the right in their new home.

You have a defeatist attitude and that often leads to, well, defeat.

[Victoria33]

@libertybele

In about 2004, the Republican Party of Texas, began opening offices in Hispanic areas so they would be closer to that population.  Being Spanish does not mean automatic  "Democrat" in Texas.

[Right_in_Virginia]

Allow the theft of the 2020 election to stand and it won't matter what the hell color Texas or any other state is -- ever again.

[Elderberry]

‘We’ve only started’: How Latino support for Trump grew in Texas borderlands

LA Times  By Molly Hennessy-FiskeHouston Bureau Chief  11/12/2020

https://www.latimes.com/world-nation/story/2020-11-12/latino-support-grew-for-trump-on-the-texas-border

McALLEN, Texas —

When more than 4,000 vehicles showed up here for a “Trump train” parade over the Fourth of July weekend, even the organizers were shocked.

The Rio Grande Valley, with some of the highest concentrations of Latinos in the country, had long been unfriendly territory for Republicans.

“Everybody was surprised,” said Rosbell “Ross” Barrera, 54, a retired Army colonel who helped organize similar events in neighboring Starr County.

The rallies, which spawned others along the border, were a sign of things to come on election day. From Brownsville to El Paso, a president who has routinely disparaged Mexicans strengthened his support among Mexican Americans.

In 2016, Donald Trump lost all 18 Texas counties where Latinos make up at least 80% of the population. This time he won five of them and closed the gap considerably in the rest.

He triumphed over Joe Biden in rural Zapata County — where Hillary Clinton had beaten him by 33 points — and narrowly lost Starr County, where Clinton’s winning margin was 60 points. In all, he took 39% of the vote in those 18 counties, up from 29% in 2016.

“You could feel the change even while we were at the polls,” said Alma Perez, 34, president of 230-member Hidalgo County Young Republicans, which has grown into one of the state’s largest chapters.

“In previous years, we weren’t much of a threat,” she said. “The silent majority is not so silent anymore.”

President Trump’s unlikely success was largely due to his defense of the oil industry and law enforcement as well as concerns that the Democratic Party was moving too far to the left.

[GtHawk]

@libertybele

In about 2004, the Republican Party of Texas, began opening offices in Hispanic areas so they would be closer to that population.  Being Spanish does not mean automatic  "Democrat" in Texas.

And being Hispanic certainly does not mean pro illegal immigration.

[truth_seeker]

Allow the theft of the 2020 election to stand and it won't matter what the hell color Texas or any other state is -- ever again.

So true

And the GOP needs to offer something with tangible benefits, like Prop 13 and lower taxes..

And the Recall underway of Gavin Musssolini.

There is hardly a sound.

[Fishrrman]

I'm a realist.

Someday, Texas is going "to turn".
It's demographics.
Numbers.
And as Dr. McCoy might say, "they're numbers, Spock -- you can't argue with numbers!"

You can see it coming, even now:


-------------

Remember folks who, three months' back, we're saying "no way biden will ever beat Mr. Trump in Georgia!"

What are they sayin' now?

The demo-communist "election apparatus" that flipped Georgia notwithstanding, the "tipping point" was gettin' close anyway (if the governor's race there 2 years ago didn't give you an inkling of that, you weren't paying attention).

I don't think a Republican will win the presidential race in Georgia again ... at least not for quite a while (short of some kind of "conflict" that shakes things down to their foundations there, and elsewhere).

Again, it's demographics.
You can rail and shake your fist at them all you want, but the numbers have a way of "fighting back" that's completely their own.
And... inevitable.

[libertybele]

I'm a realist.

Someday, Texas is going "to turn".
It's demographics.
Numbers.
And as Dr. McCoy might say, "they're numbers, Spock -- you can't argue with numbers!"

You can see it coming, even now:


-------------

Remember folks who, three months' back, we're saying "no way biden will ever beat Mr. Trump in Georgia!"

What are they sayin' now?

The demo-communist "election apparatus" that flipped Georgia notwithstanding, the "tipping point" was gettin' close anyway (if the governor's race there 2 years ago didn't give you an inkling of that, you weren't paying attention).

I don't think a Republican will win the presidential race in Georgia again ... at least not for quite a while (short of some kind of "conflict" that shakes things down to their foundations there, and elsewhere).

Again, it's demographics.
You can rail and shake your fist at them all you want, but the numbers have a way of "fighting back" that's completely their own.
And... inevitable.

Yes, the changing demographics was an integral part of the election, but the fraud and corruption is what prevailed.  If we go forward as a country that hasn't held anyone responsible for the corruption while our SCOTUS denies hearings because of political drama; it doesn't matter anymore.  We'll have lost our country.  There is NO other way to look at our current situation. 

[Knox27]

I'm a realist.

Someday, Texas is going "to turn".
It's demographics.
Numbers.
And as Dr. McCoy might say, "they're numbers, Spock -- you can't argue with numbers!"

You can see it coming, even now:


-------------

Remember folks who, three months' back, we're saying "no way biden will ever beat Mr. Trump in Georgia!"

What are they sayin' now?

The demo-communist "election apparatus" that flipped Georgia notwithstanding, the "tipping point" was gettin' close anyway (if the governor's race there 2 years ago didn't give you an inkling of that, you weren't paying attention).

I don't think a Republican will win the presidential race in Georgia again ... at least not for quite a while (short of some kind of "conflict" that shakes things down to their foundations there, and elsewhere).

Again, it's demographics.
You can rail and shake your fist at them all you want, but the numbers have a way of "fighting back" that's completely their own.
And... inevitable.

You're a realist.

Well then here is something real...you keep putting up graphs showing declining white percentage of the population and bemoan what it means, all those non-whites are gonna wonder why you are so upset about it.  And they are gonna think you just don't like non-whites.  And then they are gonna vote for the other guy.

Stop doing this bullshit demographics thing.

[libertybele]

You're a realist.

Well then here is something real...you keep putting up graphs showing declining white percentage of the population and bemoan what it means, all those non-whites are gonna wonder why you are so upset about it.  And they are gonna think you just don't like non-whites.  And then they are gonna vote for the other guy.

Stop doing this bullshit demographics thing.

Stop ignoring what just happened to our country.  Read my prior post.   

[Knox27]

Stop ignoring what just happened to our country.  Read my prior post.   

I do not believe there was any consequential fraud, in that I have seen zero evidence of fraud that would alter any results.  I am well aware I am in the minority here and that people think I either support the steal, or am somehow blind to the mountains of evidence. 
further, the SCOTUS acted appropriately in my opinion.  How many Trump judges have to say no before you start to think maybe they are correct. 

I do believe that we need to stop putting up dwindling white electorate as a bad omen.  I think arguing that Texas will turn blue is really arguing that we don't have enough white people and that is not the reason any state is destined to be blue.