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Offline Elderberry

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Strong La Niña Is Possible This Winter. Here's What That May Mean for the United States
« on: November 16, 2020, 01:13:04 am »
Weather.com by By Linda Lam

Strong La Niña Is Possible This Winter. Here's What That May Mean for the United States

At a Glance

•   La Niña is expected to continue through the winter and weaken in the spring.

•   A strong La Niña is possible during November through January.

•   La Niña can influence weather in the U.S. during the winter.

A strong La Niña is possible this winter and that may impact weather conditions in the United States over the next several months.

Typically with La Niña in place, the southern U.S. experiences above-average temperatures and below-average precipitation and the northern U.S. experiences below-average temperatures (particularly the Northern Plains and Northwest) and above-average precipitation. However, it is important to note that La Niña, El Niño or the lack of either, is just one piece of the atmospheric puzzle.

The weather pattern that frequently takes shape includes an upper-level ridge of high pressure near the Aleutians, which pushes the jet stream northward over Alaska and then southward to near the U.S./Canada border. This keeps colder air across the northern tier. Additionally, the storm track is a bit farther north, leaving the South dry and warm.

More: https://weather.com/news/weather/news/2020-11-12-strong-la-nina-possible-what-means-us-winter
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Offline Cyber Liberty

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Re: Strong La Niña Is Possible This Winter. Here's What That May Mean for the United States
« Reply #1 on: November 16, 2020, 01:37:34 am »
I've been promised an El Nino more than half the years over the last 10, and it's been "Free Beer Tomorrow" every time.
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Offline Elderberry

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Re: Strong La Niña Is Possible This Winter. Here's What That May Mean for the United States
« Reply #2 on: November 16, 2020, 01:49:19 am »
Quote from: Cyber Liberty on November 16, 2020, 01:37:34 am
I've been promised an El Nino more than half the years over the last 10, and it's been "Free Beer Tomorrow" every time.

Not El Nino 

La Niña

September 2020 ENSO update: La Niña is here!

Climate.gov by Emily Becker September 10, 2020

https://www.climate.gov/news-features/blogs/enso/september-2020-enso-update-la-ni%C3%B1a-here

La Niña conditions were present in August, and there’s a 75% chance they’ll hang around through the winter. NOAA has issued a La Niña Advisory. Just how did we arrive at this conclusion, and what does a La Niña winter portend? Read on to find out!

La Niña impacts

La Niña’s altered atmospheric circulation over the Pacific Ocean affects global weather and climate. While every ENSO event (and every winter!) is different, La Niña can make certain outcomes more likely. This includes more rain than average through Indonesia, cooler and wetter weather in southern Africa, and drier weather in southeastern China, among other impacts.

One important global impact of La Niña is its effect on the Atlantic hurricane season. La Niña reduces wind shear—the change in winds between the surface and the upper levels of the atmosphere—allowing hurricanes to grow. The likelihood of La Niña was factored into NOAA’s August outlook for the Atlantic hurricane season, which favored an “extremely active” season.  As of September 8th, we have seen 17 named storms so far this season, and the forecast is for a total of 19-25 named storms (the hurricane season ends on Nov. 30th).

La Niña affects US weather through its impact on the Asia-North Pacific jet stream, which is retracted to the west during a La Niña winter and often shifted northward of its average position. Tom wrote a great explanation of the La Niña/jet stream mechanics and impacts here. Generally, La Niña winters in the southern tier of the US tend to be warmer and drier, while the northern tier and Canada tend to be colder. Official seasonal outlooks are available from the Climate Prediction Center, and Nat will be writing about CPC’s winter outlook for the blog in November.



Average location of the jet stream and typical temperature and precipitation impacts during
La Niña winter over North America. Map by Fiona Martin for NOAA Climate.gov.


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Offline Elderberry

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Re: Strong La Niña Is Possible This Winter. Here's What That May Mean for the United States
« Reply #3 on: November 16, 2020, 02:23:20 am »
La Niña getting cooler, could be a strong one

    By DON JENKINS Capital Press Nov 13, 2020

https://www.capitalpress.com/ag_sectors/water/la-nina-getting-cooler-could-be-a-strong-one/article_441ff18e-2514-11eb-8d60-976eba8b5628.html

Quote
La Niña tightened its cold grip on the Pacific Ocean in the past month, leading federal forecasters to predict the first strong La Niña in a decade.

Sea-surface temperatures cooled in October into a "moderate" La Niña and have a 54% chance of cooling further into a "strong" La Niña by the end of November, the National Weather Service said Thursday.

Ocean temperatures haven't dropped into the strong La Niña category since the winter of 2010-11. The following spring, Washington's snowpack was 115% of normal.

Washington State Climatologist Nick Bond said the outlook bodes well for the 2021 snowpack and irrigation season.

"Maybe this La Niña won't be a whopper, but it will be significant," he said.

La Niña's influence likely will be strongest early next year and cause winter to hang on through early spring, Bond said.

More at link.
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Offline Cyber Liberty

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Re: Strong La Niña Is Possible This Winter. Here's What That May Mean for the United States
« Reply #4 on: November 16, 2020, 02:45:30 am »
Quote from: Elderberry on November 16, 2020, 01:49:19 am
Not El Nino 

La Niña

September 2020 ENSO update: La Niña is here!

Climate.gov by Emily Becker September 10, 2020

https://www.climate.gov/news-features/blogs/enso/september-2020-enso-update-la-ni%C3%B1a-here

La Niña conditions were present in August, and there’s a 75% chance they’ll hang around through the winter. NOAA has issued a La Niña Advisory. Just how did we arrive at this conclusion, and what does a La Niña winter portend? Read on to find out!

La Niña impacts

La Niña’s altered atmospheric circulation over the Pacific Ocean affects global weather and climate. While every ENSO event (and every winter!) is different, La Niña can make certain outcomes more likely. This includes more rain than average through Indonesia, cooler and wetter weather in southern Africa, and drier weather in southeastern China, among other impacts.

One important global impact of La Niña is its effect on the Atlantic hurricane season. La Niña reduces wind shear—the change in winds between the surface and the upper levels of the atmosphere—allowing hurricanes to grow. The likelihood of La Niña was factored into NOAA’s August outlook for the Atlantic hurricane season, which favored an “extremely active” season.  As of September 8th, we have seen 17 named storms so far this season, and the forecast is for a total of 19-25 named storms (the hurricane season ends on Nov. 30th).

La Niña affects US weather through its impact on the Asia-North Pacific jet stream, which is retracted to the west during a La Niña winter and often shifted northward of its average position. Tom wrote a great explanation of the La Niña/jet stream mechanics and impacts here. Generally, La Niña winters in the southern tier of the US tend to be warmer and drier, while the northern tier and Canada tend to be colder. Official seasonal outlooks are available from the Climate Prediction Center, and Nat will be writing about CPC’s winter outlook for the blog in November.



Average location of the jet stream and typical temperature and precipitation impacts during
La Niña winter over North America. Map by Fiona Martin for NOAA Climate.gov.

I was referring to the correct one, El Nino.  It was supposed to bring us lots of rain, and it never appears.   :shrug:

We seem to have an overabundance if La Ninas.  Hope I didn't stray too far off topic....
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Offline jmyrlefuller

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Re: Strong La Niña Is Possible This Winter. Here's What That May Mean for the United States
« Reply #5 on: November 16, 2020, 03:24:18 am »
El Niño/La Niña is perhaps the best-known of the "teleconnections," long-term setups in sea surface temperatures and atmospheric pressure patterns that meteorologists try to use to predict long-term weather trends, to middling success.

If you ask me, it's overrated—at least within the context of weather that affects the United States. One to watch is the North Atlantic Oscillation (NAO), which I've found tends to have a more direct impact on weather in North America.
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Offline SZonian

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Re: Strong La Niña Is Possible This Winter. Here's What That May Mean for the United States
« Reply #6 on: November 16, 2020, 03:34:28 am »
Your context disclaimer notwithstanding, El Niño/La Niña are not "overrated" for CA and they hit different parts of CA pretty hard...so pardon my disposition on this since I'm still stuck in CA. wink777

Some winters are dry and nice and others are cold ass flooding nightmares...thanks to Mother Gaia... :whistle:

And just because...some new AC/DC "Through the mists of time", killer rock and roll from the metal masters...
http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=FpMVBqSWbsA

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Offline Cyber Liberty

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Re: Strong La Niña Is Possible This Winter. Here's What That May Mean for the United States
« Reply #7 on: November 16, 2020, 04:21:52 am »
Quote from: jmyrlefuller on November 16, 2020, 03:24:18 am
El Niño/La Niña is perhaps the best-known of the "teleconnections," long-term setups in sea surface temperatures and atmospheric pressure patterns that meteorologists try to use to predict long-term weather trends, to middling success.

If you ask me, it's overrated—at least within the context of weather that affects the United States. One to watch is the North Atlantic Oscillation (NAO), which I've found tends to have a more direct impact on weather in North America.

It's a little different here in the far West.  Tropical storms and Hurricanes come up Baja California into SoCal and AZ, and the jet streams can sweep far enough south to freeze the cactus.  And we do care about Nina/Nino patterns.  We just haven't had any recently.   :shrug:
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Online roamer_1

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Re: Strong La Niña Is Possible This Winter. Here's What That May Mean for the United States
« Reply #8 on: November 16, 2020, 05:20:34 am »
It means wet and warm here... lots of rain and thaw... We get the warm moisture on its way up... a mild winter. East of the Rockies and especially the eastern seaboard get that frozen moisture on the way back down, and will have hell to pay.

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Offline Cyber Liberty

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Re: Strong La Niña Is Possible This Winter. Here's What That May Mean for the United States
« Reply #9 on: November 16, 2020, 05:32:30 am »
Quote from: roamer_1 on November 16, 2020, 05:20:34 am
It means wet and warm here... lots of rain and thaw... We get the warm moisture on its way up... a mild winter. East of the Rockies and especially the eastern seaboard get that frozen moisture on the way back down, and will have hell to pay.

My loss is your gain..... 22222frying pan
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For unvaccinated, we are looking at a winter of severe illness and death — if you’re unvaccinated — for themselves, their families, and the hospitals they’ll soon overwhelm. Sloe Joe Biteme 12/16
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Online roamer_1

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Re: Strong La Niña Is Possible This Winter. Here's What That May Mean for the United States
« Reply #10 on: November 16, 2020, 05:36:00 am »
Quote from: Cyber Liberty on November 16, 2020, 05:32:30 am
My loss is your gain..... 22222frying pan

LOL! Pretty much... Though you might still get to point and laugh... It all depends on where the jet stream winds up... If we stay on the warm side of it we will be relatively wet and mild. If we are in it, or on the cold side, Alaska moves to Montana.
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Offline Bigun

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Re: Strong La Niña Is Possible This Winter. Here's What That May Mean for the United States
« Reply #11 on: November 16, 2020, 01:53:29 pm »
It means dry here and something like 70% of Texas is already in a drought condition.
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Offline Elderberry

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Re: Strong La Niña Is Possible This Winter. Here's What That May Mean for the United States
« Reply #12 on: December 19, 2020, 07:45:14 pm »
Quote from: Bigun on November 16, 2020, 01:53:29 pm
It means dry here and something like 70% of Texas is already in a drought condition.

It was dry here too, but it sure ain't now. I just got over 2 inches in the last hour.
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Offline skeeter

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Re: Strong La Niña Is Possible This Winter. Here's What That May Mean for the United States
« Reply #13 on: December 19, 2020, 07:58:02 pm »
Quote from: Bigun on November 16, 2020, 01:53:29 pm
It means dry here and something like 70% of Texas is already in a drought condition.
The sun is still hot here on the central coast of CA. We’ve gotten precious little rain.
« Last Edit: December 19, 2020, 09:03:07 pm by skeeter »
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