Pollsters Warn of Flawed Election Day Predictions: ‘People Are Going to Be Shocked’ by ‘Shy,’ ‘Hidde

[mystery-ak]

Pollsters Warn of Flawed Election Day Predictions: ‘People Are Going to Be Shocked’ by ‘Shy,’ ‘Hidden’ Trump Voters

Hannah Bleau 31 Oct 2020

Notable pollsters are cautioning Americans to refrain from getting too comfortable with polling predictions as Election Day approaches, suggesting polls may not account for “shy” or “hidden” Trump voters– those who are largely responsible for President Trump’s upset victory four years ago. In this election, the magnitude of such voters could be even greater.

Politico spoke to two pollsters who “weren’t blindsided” by the Trump phenomenon in 2016: Arie Kapteyn and Robert Cahaly.

Cahaly is the chief pollster with the Trafalgar Group, which RealClearPolitics’ co-founder and president, Tom Bevan, called “one of the most accurate polling operations in America” because of its predictions in the last two political cycles. In 2016, Cahaly showed Trump winning both Pennsylvania and Michigan. His polls also showed Florida Gov. Ron DeSantis (R) leading his Democrat challenger, Andrew Gillum, in 2018’s gubernatorial race.

“Kapteyn, a Dutch economist who leads the USC’s Dornsife Center for Economic and Social Research, oversaw the USC/Los Angeles Times poll that gave Trump a 3-point lead heading into election day—which, Kapteyn notes, was wrong: Clinton won the popular vote by 2 points,” Politico reported, adding that both men suspect that surveys could be, once again, “undercounting” the support for President Trump. They attribute this phenomenon to “shy” Trump voters, or people “reluctant to share their opinions for fear of being judged.” These voters are more commonly known among GOP circles as the “silent majority.”

Kapteyn and his team at USC have attempted to identify this mysterious demographic by asking respondents whom they believe their friends and neighbors will vote for, in addition to whom they are supporting personally.

While Biden leads by double-digits nationally for the routine question of who the respondent supports, his lead shrinks to five or six points in what Kapteyn described as the “‘social-circle’ question.”

more
https://www.breitbart.com/politics/2020/10/31/pollsters-warn-flawed-election-day-predictions-people-shocked-shy-hidden-trump-voters/#

[Free Vulcan]

Our high school took a straw poll here and Trump won handily. We are a strong Dem county.

Guys are even putting Trump stickers on their lockers at work. Nobody is even shy about it.

[jafo2010]

I would not be surprised that a state or two that is forecast for Biden ends up in the Trump column.

How can anyone vote for this lame brain?  He was an idiot when he entered the Senate, and it only went downward from there.