Live Thread: Hurricane Laura updates

[libertybele]

4pm NHC advisory synopsis....

Laura- Winds now 50 mph, moving west at 18mph. Now on the west coast of PR heading for Hispanola (Haiti/Domican Republic).  Official track not that significantly different from previous advisories, or strength. Even tming is similar with strom maintaing TS level, before leaving the big Caribbean islands Monday afternoon.  NHC still has it forecasted to get stronger then in the  Central Gulf, making a northward turn after the 90th parallel. They still think that it will be about a 80 mph storm (Cat 1) reaching near Morgan City, LA Wednesday afternoon.  Cone?  Now Port Arthur TX to near Mobile, AL

Marco.-  As I reported last hour ...  An expected Huge Huge shift eastward on the track.  Marco is now up to 60 mph heading NNW at 13 mph.  As it heads northward, they believe it will be a 80 mph hurricane before landfall near the mouth of the Mississippi.  Maybe 50 miles east of Laura's projection Also as a 80 mph category 1 storm Monday afternoon.  Cone- Galveston to Gulfport.  And BTW Hurricane watches have now been posted from Intercoastal City, LA to the Alabama-Mississippi border

What is really concerning to me, is some of this setup may be leading to some historic flooding.  (1) Two Cat 1 landfalling canes within a 50-200 mile area?  (2) Notice Marco's track....   From Monday to Wednesday, it has only moved from landfall to Dallas.  That is a  slow storm. East TX, LA, MS, AL, and even FL panhandle is going see some serious rain next week.

But stay tuned, as drastic as this shift was....   It might not be the last

I am hoping with Lara that as she moves over land that she will seem some destruction and not even make it into the northern Gulf.

I share your concern about two these two storms at once. I still think it's a little to early to tell with both of them.  Storms entering into that side of the Gulf have always been unpredictable. 

I keep hearing here in FL that SWFL remains out of the cone of any significant weather.  Though with the uncertainty of a storm in this portion of the Gulf ... I'm still a little hesitant to breathe a sigh of relief here.

Prayers up for all -- FL, TX, MS & LA

[Hoodat]

Marco.-  As I reported last hour ...  An expected Huge Huge shift eastward on the track.  Marco is now up to 60 mph heading NNW at 13 mph.  As it heads northward, they believe it will be a 80 mph hurricane before landfall near the mouth of the Mississippi. 

Not a good day to be in Plaquemines Parish.

[catfish1957]

 

I keep hearing here in FL that SWFL remains out of the cone of any significant weather.  Though with the uncertainty of a storm in this portion of the Gulf ... I'm still a little hesitant to breathe a sigh of relief here.

@libertybele

My eyes may be deceiving me a bit, but on the Visual, Water, Air Mass, and IR loops........   Marco seems to be tending slightly east of true north on track.  Which is not what the forecast is saying. 

Like you said, there is no letting down the guard anywhere on the gulf coast right now.

[IsailedawayfromFR]

Hurricanes are tricky to dodge.  Unless you can make it safely out of the state soon enough to not be impacted in your travels, sometimes it is best just to stay, put your shutters up and bunker in.  We've been through several hurricanes and have been very very fortunate that we have been minimally impacted. 

The hurricane building codes have become much more strict as well which helps; the latest codes were set in 2017 and a revision is due out this year.

Or sometimes it is best not to stay, regardless of whether you can get out of state, like this area of Mississippi found out during Katrina.  No building code would save them short of forcing everyone into a bunker, which even then could flood and kill you.


BTW, Texas is big.  There really is no reason why anyone need leave here for any hurricane.

[IsailedawayfromFR]

Not a good day to be in Plaquemines Parish.

Mostly a water parish anyway that carries the Mississippi River into the gulf.

It is subsiding forever due to the levees keeping the river from flooding the parish and depositing sediment.
Pre and Post Katrina imagery

[IsailedawayfromFR]

Not I....but of course @Wingnut might have a comment.   

I was going to respond, but with that handle name you have, thought it wiser not to.

[Elderberry]

BTW, Texas is big.  There really is no reason why anyone need leave here for any hurricane.

It's a good thing you weren't around in 1900 to tell the people on Galveston Island to ignore that puny hurricane and no one needs to evacuate.

[240B]

Marco is tracking straight for New Orleans.
Laura is in the Dominican Republic heading straight for Haiti and Cuba.

[libertybele]

Or sometimes it is best not to stay, regardless of whether you can get out of state, like this area of Mississippi found out during Katrina.  No building code would save them short of forcing everyone into a bunker, which even then could flood and kill you.


BTW, Texas is big.  There really is no reason why anyone need leave here for any hurricane.

Yes, the size of TX is definitely an advantage. Getting out of FL during Irma was very difficult -- she grew into a massive unpredictable storm and unless you left the state a week ahead of time you weren't getting out. Airline flights were sold out, hotels were sold out all the way into KY, travel trailer rentals were sold out.  The problem with FL is we have only a couple of highways out and they have had to actually shut down southbound lanes and open them up so that they become northbound lanes.  Dodging that hurricane was tricky and we were extremely lucky - though we would have been better off staying put.

[libertybele]

Marco is tracking straight for New Orleans.
Laura is in the Dominican Republic heading straight for Haiti and Cuba.

NHC is stating that Marco has taken a more eastward track.  I am hoping Lara is destroyed over land.  Things aren't looking good for LA.

[IsailedawayfromFR]

It's a good thing you weren't around in 1900 to tell the people on Galveston Island to ignore that puny hurricane and no one needs to evacuate.

You miss my point.

One need not flee to another state to avoid a hurricane.

El Paso is 850 miles away from Galveston.  Are you seriously believing that one has to leave the state to avoid even that hurricane?

[IsailedawayfromFR]

Yes, the size of TX is definitely an advantage. Getting out of FL during Irma was very difficult -- she grew into a massive unpredictable storm and unless you left the state a week ahead of time you weren't getting out. Airline flights were sold out, hotels were sold out all the way into KY, travel trailer rentals were sold out.  The problem with FL is we have only a couple of highways out and they have had to actually shut down southbound lanes and open them up so that they become northbound lanes.  Dodging that hurricane was tricky and we were extremely lucky - though we would have been better off staying put.

Living out on a sliver of land makes it not easy to evacuate for sure.

In Texas, we have a lot of different directions to take.

[Hoodat]

You miss my point.

One need not flee to another state to avoid a hurricane.

El Paso is 850 miles away from Galveston.  Are you seriously believing that one has to leave the state to avoid even that hurricane?

[Cyber Liberty]

"The sun is riz, the sun is set, and we ain't outta Texas yet."

[catfish1957]

10 p.m. Saturday Tropics synopsis......

Laura- moving WNW 16 on the south coast of Haiti @advisory.  Right now convection has diffused enough to make out a center.  Maybe regeneration,  Overall path similar, wth Morgan City at center, and cone Port Arthur, TX, to Mobile, AL. Wind impact at landfal upped a bit though...   90 mph.  Late night models have remained pretty consistent with previous one.  A couple to TX near Galveston, and a couple toward, FL, and all the rest pretty clustered and consistent toward the SE Louisana coast.

Marco- Movign NNW@14mph, but looking at the loops, it looks like it has stalled the past 4 hours just west of Cuba, while a chunk of convection has gotten caught up in the trough, and heading for SW FL.  NHC track is fairly unchanged having it heading NNW toward SE LA coast as an 80mph cane.  Models are now getting complicated on an expected WNW turn.   2 outliers have it heading towrd Mobile or the FL panhandle.  8 have it landfalling at or near NHC forecast location, but 5 (and trending) have it stalling and moving W/ WNW hugging the SWLA and upper Texas Coast for at least the three day period at the end of the model run. 

In any case, anyone on the Gulf Coast needs to watch for impact in the next week.  Forecasters have the hands full, honestly I have almost zero confidence in the projections right now. 

[catfish1957]

Sunday 4a.m.----  A bowl of gumbo with some double whammy sauce?

Laura- Located now along the south coast of Hispanola with winds of 45 mph.  Storm not faring too well with the big island, but center is still well defined, and sure no shortage of moisture and precip. NHC Track has it also transversing Cuba, keeping T. S. Strength, before entering the gulf early Tuesday morning. Continues a WNW/NW direction for about 24 hours.  By Wednesday morning the storm reaches Hurricane level makes a more NNW move, with landfall projected at Vermillion Bay, Louisiana.  The cone of uncertainty places the hit early a.m. Thursday at anywhere  from Freeport, TX to the mouth of the Mississippi.  This cone pretty much coincides with the spread of 14 of the 15 NHC models.

(and a quick edit, to not forget about our FL briefers...   The Keys will are under a T.S watch for Monday/Tuesday, but are not in the cone of a hit at this point)

Marco- Marco is now NW of Cuba moving NNW at 13 mph, with winds speeds just under hurricane strength (70 mph) .  Storm is forecasted to keep a pretty straightforward NNW trek hitting south of NOLA Monday Afternoon. as minimim Cat 1.  After landfall, they are guessing a sharp WNW turn inland drenching SWLA, and SETX.  In fact by Wednesday, storm they say storm will be located about 100 miles north of Houston as a Depression.  Guessing with this, and a double whammy of Laura in the area by Thursday, we are going to see some pretty astronomical rainfall figures in SETX, SWLA>..  Cone itself has storm potential Galveston to LA/MS state line.  Models are tightly structured around landfalling site, with 4 outliers showing AL, or FL panhandle.  Hurricane warning have been issued from Morgan City to Pearl River (LA/MS border)

[catfish1957]

Not one to second guess the NHC, but Marco sure seems to be on a more northward course than a NNW one.  There is a nice tight spin forming in the circulation, and I am guessing we might be seeing an eye, pretty shortly.  One other quick "not good" observation......  All that dry air in the western gulf. is getting less dry by the hour.  Air flow patterns seem to be slowing too.  Not a good sign if you want to inhibit hurricane development.

[Elderberry]

You miss my point.

One need not flee to another state to avoid a hurricane.

El Paso is 850 miles away from Galveston.  Are you seriously believing that one has to leave the state to avoid even that hurricane?

I did. You didn't say "Leave the whole State" . I took "There really is no reason why anyone need leave here for any hurricane."  To mean no one needs to leave( seek shelter)  here( places in Texas).

[libertybele]

Latest news that we are hearing here in FL;

FL Keys/Dry Tortugas on tropical storm alert

Laura is projected to make landfall around New Orleans -- possible Cat 2 now

Marco should maybe a hurricane today (Cat 1) and is also projected to make landfall  around LA

Prayers up for the people in Louisiana!  My heart goes out to them -- it looks like they are going to get simultaneously hit by both storms.  My thought is perhaps ships and army caravans need to get there now and start getting these people evacuated.  Then there's the whole COVID issue of having all these people in close quarters.   

I'm still praying and hoping that Laura's strength decreases once she hits land.

[catfish1957]

My pre-10am Sunday NHC advisory analysis

Laura- Seeing a significant around of banding around all loops.  Indicitive of possible strenghtening, even though a chunk of the storm is overland on Hispanola.  Seeing more of a true westward trek, rather than the slight WNW bend NHC forecasts.  Maybe it just hasn't initiated  it yet.  Storm as whole is larger than than what I saw during the night.  Models as a whole look like they have shifted westward the past run.  I expect the path of Laura on the 10 am advisory to be at or near the TX/LA border

Marco- Actually looks weaker.  And still looks like a more than north vs NW movement.  FL don't get your guard down.

[catfish1957]

Rundown on the 10 am NHC advisory (Not good news for my neighborhood)

Laura-  As I reported within the hour, we are seeing a continued shift in the path.  Laura is now on the west coast of Hispanola, winds at 50 mph, moving WNW pretty swiftly at 21 mph.  NHC has storm on a continued WNW track, crossing through the south part of Cuba, becomes a hurricane Tuesday evening about 400 miles south of Gulfport.  Then at about the 88th- 92nd parallel a NNW to Northward shift in track ensues.  And Stregthens into about Cat.2 (100mph) before landfall.  Now forecasted bullseye is the TX/LA border, with cone of uncertainty from Port Lavaca, TX to Morgan City.

Marco-  Not  much change in track, or strength.  Now 70 mph.  Forecasted still to reach coast South of NOLA as a minimum hurricane.  Watches now upgraded to Warnings, meaning conditons are now expected within 24 hr.

[Hoodat]

Fill up your gas tanks now.  GOM production is about to come to a standstill.

[catfish1957]

And to my buddies down the coast in Texas, be aware.  Sometimes these models seem to trend themselves.  I am betting a lot of where this thing heads depends on the  weakness between the U.S. East and Wests Highs that typically influence our summer weather. Any deviation?, this thing could land anywhere. And honestly based on the rapid flux so far on this storm, I  bet there will be changes that  significantly influences Laura's landfall.

[libertybele]

Marco has now reached hurricane strength.

[Hoodat]

Gulf oil & gas production shut down for a whole week.