Professor with history of correctly predicting elections forecasts that Biden will defeat Trump

[mystery-ak]

 

Professor with history of correctly predicting elections forecasts that Biden will defeat Trump
By Marina Pitofsky - 08/05/20 05:18 PM EDT

American University professor Allan Lichtman, who has a record of accurately predicting presidential races, said he expects former Vice President Joe Biden, the presumptive Democratic nominee, to defeat President Trump in November.

Lichtman was one of the few forecasters who predicted the president’s election in 2016. Over decades of observing presidential politics, he has developed a system of 13 “key factors” to help determine whether the party in the White House will maintain its hold. The keys range from whether the party has an incumbent president running to short- and long-term economic conditions.

“The keys predict that Trump will lose the White House,” the professor said in a video op-ed published by The New York Times Wednesday.

Lichtman claims to have accurately predicted the winner of every presidential election since 1984, though he predicted that former Vice President Al Gore would win the election in 2000. Although Gore won the popular vote, former President George Bush won the electoral college.

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https://thehill.com/homenews/campaign/510754-professor-with-history-of-correctly-predicting-elections-forecasts-that

[LegalAmerican]

I agree.  Eye roll.   

[DB]

His 13 factors does not include brownshirt thugs looting and rioting in major cities around the US.

There has never been an election in modern times to compare to this one.

This election is no longer about Trump.

[libertybele]

His 13 factors does not include brownshirt thugs looting and rioting in major cities around the US.

There has never been an election in modern times to compare to this one.

This election is no longer about Trump.

Agreed; there are too many factors entering into this election that would make his prediction accurate based on the past. 

...hmmm I'm not quite sure that I agree that this election is no longer about Trump.  Yes we have thugs in the street, but he had an opportunity from the very start to quell the riots and he didn't. That doesn't set well with me, but I can perhaps look past that. Also, IF re-elected he will be the one taking this country in the direction that he chooses; he no longer will have a base to satisfy.  That is why I find his comment/promise to give a roadway to citizenship to DACA deeply concerning.

There is also the possibility that IF he is re-elected and the GOP loses the majority in both Houses; we will then see a more liberal side to Trump??  He has often backpedaled on issues and this I find deeply concerning as well.

He is the opposition to Biden (or whoever becomes the eventual nominee.).

[DB]

Agreed; there are too many factors entering into this election that would make his prediction accurate based on the past. 

...hmmm I'm not quite sure that I agree that this election is no longer about Trump.  Yes we have thugs in the street, but he had an opportunity from the very start to quell the riots and he didn't. That doesn't set well with me, but I can perhaps look past that. Also, IF re-elected he will be the one taking this country in the direction that he chooses; he no longer will have a base to satisfy.  That is why I find his comment/promise to give a roadway to citizenship to DACA deeply concerning.

There is also the possibility that IF he is re-elected and the GOP loses the majority in both Houses; we will then see a more liberal side to Trump??  He has often backpedaled on issues and this I find deeply concerning as well.

He is the opposition to Biden (or whoever becomes the eventual nominee.).

I'm saying the Democrats have made the election about them. About having police or not. About having riots, what they call "protests", in the streets destroying property and peoples lives. About anticapitalist marxist BLM/Antifa thuggery doing what they couldn't do via the ballot box. About demanding that whites are racist and privileged solely based on the color of their skin.

So no, it is no longer about Trump.

[Idiot]

I'm hedging my bets as I'm looking down the barrel of a Dem all round win.  I exited the stock market entirely.  Not worth the risk....