Posted on July 24, 2020 by Steven Hayward in 2020 Presidential Election, Poll
Surprises Inside Trump’s Poll Numbers
As everyone knows, most polls—even Fox News yesterday—have Trump trailing Biden by as much as 10 points or more, reflecting a major slump from his position before the coronavirus and the post-Floyd urban unrest started. On closer look, Trump has lost support with various segments of white voters that supported him in 2016.
That’s the finding of an NBC News poll out yesterday. Here’s a key part:
Biden is clobbering Trump 58 percent to 37 percent among whites with college degrees, more than double Clinton’s 51 percent to 42 percent lead among that group in 2016 . . . Biden has also modestly cut Trump’s lead among whites without degrees. Trump now leads Biden 55 percent to 37 percent in that group; in 2016, Trump led Clinton 59 percent to 35 percent among the same group.
But there’s one very interesting finding in this poll that could justify very different headlines, such as “Trump Strengthening With Minority Voters.†Here’s the key paragraph buried deep down in the NBC story:
If there’s a surprising weakness for Biden, it’s nonwhite voters, especially Latinos. He’s carrying African Americans by 75 points over Trump in the latest polls, down from Clinton’s 80-point margin in 2016. But Trump has narrowed the gap among Latino voters to 30 points, down from his 40 point deficit four years ago.
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https://www.powerlineblog.com/archives/2020/07/inside-trumps-poll-numbers.php
