Trump says US will buy $3billion worth of dairy, meat and produce from farmers to give to food banks

[Chosen Daughter]

Dairy getting hit I can see. Dairy cows ain't on range, they're on pasture... Close in. Have to be to come to the barn every night. And they are supplemented in feed to yield high production...

You can take some of that hit right now, because they have a good portion of their cows with calf right now... If they kept the calf, they can calf-share the cow (keep the calf on the cow), and cut production in half, or let the calf have it all, go to zero production and make the money on selling the calf instead... That would buy some months without drying the cow off... But it does not stop the costs in hay and grain. And while the pastures are growing hard right now, it is about time to lose the calves (another month or so) because the pastures going into summer are not able to handle the weight without getting rid of some before summer heat hits and the pastures quit producing as well.

Another thing... milk overage, usually fermented skim goes to hog farmers all the time. So if there is a glut in milk you can keep the cows wet selling your overage to the pig farmers. It is mostly a discard, but that is a cheap source of food for the pigs right now, buying time.

But beef- Beef don't care... Cattle ranches have just come off their expensive season... They've had the cows down in pasture, feeding hay all winter... They've JUST past roundup, and are sending em out onto range. Now, that CAN be a thing... more cows, more weight on the range than expected... Might run em out of food late summer, and might be more than the range can handle... That is true. But it depends on the summer. If it is cool and rainy, the range will take the say, 25% beyond expected...

It will hurt fall prices (more cows to sell later), and will cause shortage in the summer (feed lots empty, cattle tunred out to range instead) but it's a better bet than killing em now and dumping them in a gully. Doesn't make any sense.

Somebody is making a story, I think.

Chosen shaking head in agreement.  Thanks Roamer.

[roamer_1]

I'm not buying the plowing under stories, except maybe in places where it costs money to irrigate. 

Maybe deep South and CA, where they may have crop in the ground all winter too - They would have to be harvesting now-ish to get a spring crop planted...  But that can only be deep South... I know that  Kansas, Oklahoma, Missouri latitudes are laying fallow in the winter, or growing a cover - Annual rye, or winter wheat to harvest in the spring and plow under... That's touchy because most of the Plains is too wet to harvest this time of year. Normally they're beggin to dry off so they can get a plow in the ground. But I am a Northerner, and I don't know for sure.

I'm thinking of the cattlemen and pig farmers.  They either feed 'em or slaughter 'em if they can't get a wholesale buyer.

Pigs, yeah... They're basically a feed lot animal, or a pasture animal at best. That means feed costs and lost production. If you don't harvest em, they keep costing you money and you didn't get money from the harvest you missed.

Dairy, same kinda thing... Pasture critters are supplemented,, so they cost you money all the time. And you need to keep your cows wet (in milk). If you let em dry off, they're dry till the next time they calve... And still costing you money all year. So that's tough.

But range don't care. Cattle are different from Dairy. They go to range basically for free (unless a head lease on gubmint land) The spendy time is in the winter when they are drove down, sold for slaughter, and the rest wintered over on pasture. The profit from the fall harvest breaks even generally, getting you through the winter costs in hay and grain to your pregnant cows and yearling calves, with gravy money coming on yearling calves in the spring and late calves from the year before going to sale.

They go to the feed lots, which act as a buffer. The live harvest on the hoof (spring and fall generally) is fed in the lots and taken to slaughter as needed in between. So the feed lots set the price of the live hoof.

Yeah, the feed lots might be taking a hit. Can't move em, and have to feed em. But that means live hoof is cheaper than dirt, and ranchers can expand breeding herd right now for near nothing... SO the net effect is growing herds out on the range.

The bummer comes in the fall - The fall harvest time you HAVE TO get rid of overage - pare down as much as you can or suffer haying them all winter long, which is likely. You can sell em off the pasture in the winter, but beef prices are low as all heck in the winter, so pretty much you are screwed into feeding em if you don't get em sold off...

[Cyber Liberty]

Maybe deep South and CA, where they may have crop in the ground all winter too - They would have to be harvesting now-ish to get a spring crop planted...  But that can only be deep South... I know that  Kansas, Oklahoma, Missouri latitudes are laying fallow in the winter, or growing a cover - Annual rye, or winter wheat to harvest in the spring and plow under... That's touchy because most of the Plains is too wet to harvest this time of year. Normally they're beggin to dry off so they can get a plow in the ground. But I am a Northerner, and I don't know for sure.

The seed is in the ground for first season by now, at least down here.  Not many farms in this new town I live in, there were more in the Phoenix 'burbs.   

[Smokin Joe]

Maybe deep South and CA, where they may have crop in the ground all winter too - They would have to be harvesting now-ish to get a spring crop planted...  But that can only be deep South... I know that  Kansas, Oklahoma, Missouri latitudes are laying fallow in the winter, or growing a cover - Annual rye, or winter wheat to harvest in the spring and plow under... That's touchy because most of the Plains is too wet to harvest this time of year. Normally they're beggin to dry off so they can get a plow in the ground. But I am a Northerner, and I don't know for sure.

Pigs, yeah... They're basically a feed lot animal, or a pasture animal at best. That means feed costs and lost production. If you don't harvest em, they keep costing you money and you didn't get money from the harvest you missed.

Dairy, same kinda thing... Pasture critters are supplemented,, so they cost you money all the time. And you need to keep your cows wet (in milk). If you let em dry off, they're dry till the next time they calve... And still costing you money all year. So that's tough.

But range don't care. Cattle are different from Dairy. They go to range basically for free (unless a head lease on gubmint land) The spendy time is in the winter when they are drove down, sold for slaughter, and the rest wintered over on pasture. The profit from the fall harvest breaks even generally, getting you through the winter costs in hay and grain to your pregnant cows and yearling calves, with gravy money coming on yearling calves in the spring and late calves from the year before going to sale.

They go to the feed lots, which act as a buffer. The live harvest on the hoof (spring and fall generally) is fed in the lots and taken to slaughter as needed in between. So the feed lots set the price of the live hoof.

Yeah, the feed lots might be taking a hit. Can't move em, and have to feed em. But that means live hoof is cheaper than dirt, and ranchers can expand breeding herd right now for near nothing... SO the net effect is growing herds out on the range.

The bummer comes in the fall - The fall harvest time you HAVE TO get rid of overage - pare down as much as you can or suffer haying them all winter long, which is likely. You can sell em off the pasture in the winter, but beef prices are low as all heck in the winter, so pretty much you are screwed into feeding em if you don't get em sold off...

Pigs for slaughter have a 'best by' window, too. Get too large/old and the price goes down.

For cattle, feed lots don't just act as a buffer, but feed is used for 'finishing', adding the fat to range beef that marbles it and improves it's tenderness and flavor. Those are the guys caught in the middle--too much fat is not much more marketable than too little and it all costs in feed outlay and labor.

[roamer_1]

Pigs for slaughter have a 'best by' window, too. Get too large/old and the price goes down.

For cattle, feed lots don't just act as a buffer, but feed is used for 'finishing', adding the fat to range beef that marbles it and improves it's tenderness and flavor. Those are the guys caught in the middle--too much fat is not much more marketable than too little and it all costs in feed outlay and labor.

That's right, and I am speaking very generally. The push on the live hoof is in the spring, and primarily in the fall. Finishing in the feedlot is generally 30 to 60 days, and can be pushed to 90 or more waiting on the market. It's basically a 4 month window centered mid summer between the latest spring stragglers and the early fall sales coming out of the Rockies (we start bringing them down early to mid september... And again centered in late winter... Both being when the glut spring and fall is drying off... Feed lots will keep em as they can for those premium processor demand times, and higher market values.

We ran maintenance feed on more than half of them to start with and actually started finishing em third and third and third, thirty days apart. Maybe it's different now.