Author Topic: The coronavirus modellers are saying even North Dakota needs to stay locked down until July?  (Read 1075 times)

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Offline LegalAmerican

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 Brix is mentioned.  Still looking for her video, addressing both Fauci & Brix.  Surprise, may be deleted? 


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Offline LegalAmerican

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She mentions both Fauci & Brix in this one.  Starts about 4:00, but first 4 minutes explains some more information On BRIX.
LOOK FOR HER SAME DRESS IN HER VIDEO'S.   She re-runs that video, I can't find.


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Offline Chosen Daughter

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If any of you want.....just hit YouTube on any of her video's.  She has info on FAUCI & BRIX....I say if POTUS does not go along...MORE PEOPLE will die.  THAT IS THE THREAT BY NWO GLOBALISTS.   THEY WILL RELEASE EBOLA...like Obama did not stop planes from those infected country's in his term.  THIS POTUS IS TRYING TO SAVE LIVES EVERYWHERE.


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Trump has continued to give praise to Newsom and Cuomo.  If you don't believe it fine.  But this CORONA virus is leading to One World government Socialism.  And people are taking the tit.
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Offline Fishrrman

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bele wrote:
"Several states have considerable "hot spots" in them.  It would be prudent to keep these areas in lock down and let the rest of the states get on with their lives."

Indeed.
Here in Connecticut, here are the "new infection numbers" for the last several days:
4/20   1853
4/21   545
4/22   2109
4/23   631
4/24   821
4/25   661

My county (Fairfield) has 10,227 infections total.
That's more than a bunch of midwest states combined -- in one county.
My town (not a huge city) has 1,300 cases. That's more than some states, in one town.

What works in South Dakota, AIN'T gonna work here.
Not yet.

Offline Smokin Joe

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It's not just garbage-in, garbage out; it's also sample size.

The IHME works great in New York, where you have a huge sample size, high density and lots of hospitalizations. But the smaller the populace, the more that statistical noise gets baked in. You have less density, less person-to-person contact, smaller social circles and thus a smaller R0.

Since North Dakota isn't tracking recoveries, I'll use South Dakota as an example. South Dakota has 66 counties. A majority of them—I counted 44, but I might have missed or double-counted while scrolling—either no longer have any active cases or never have had any to begin with. But that Sioux Falls meat-packing plant outbreak skews the results for the whole state. Those 44 counties have no reason to be locked down.

I will also note that the IHME also projects no shortage in hospital or ICU beds for either North Dakota or South Dakota, so in those cases there is arguably no need for lockdown there.
Whoa....North Dakota IS tracking recoveries. There are 310 recovered as of today.
Here is the Dept of Health website.
https://www.health.nd.gov/diseases-conditions/coronavirus/north-dakota-coronavirus-cases
North Dakota had its skewing event in Grand Forks County at the Wind turbine plant, but generally, the number of cases is highest in Cass County (Fargo, and by far the most long term care facilities) and Burleigh county (Bismarck) Those three counties also contain the three largest cities in the State.

Living here these past 42 years, I have watched this closely as it developed from the first case in the State in Ward County. Despite being first on the board, that gentleman stayed home and self-quarantined. I pray he is well. The county, however did not continue on to have the most cases, despite having the 4th largest city in the state, and an AFB, still well behind the six counties with more cases.
If you do a mental overlay of the highway map with the dept of health map (see link above) showing cases by county, the following trend applies.  Cases generally are greatest along main highway corridors, I-94, US2, and I-29, HWY83, and US85.
For the most part the highest number of cases are in counties with the largest cities. Dickinson, in Stark County, is the last large town on the way to Billings, with the exception of Miles City, MT.  Not just destinations, these are the places people get a bite to eat, a room for the night, fill up the gas tank.
How God must weep at humans' folly! Stand fast! God knows what he is doing!
Seventeen Techniques for Truth Suppression

Of all tyrannies, a tyranny sincerely exercised for the good of its victims may be the most oppressive. It would be better to live under robber barons than under omnipotent moral busybodies. The robber baron's cruelty may sometimes sleep, his cupidity may at some point be satiated; but those who torment us for our own good will torment us without end for they do so with the approval of their own conscience.

C S Lewis

Offline Smokin Joe

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bele wrote:
"Several states have considerable "hot spots" in them.  It would be prudent to keep these areas in lock down and let the rest of the states get on with their lives."

Indeed.
Here in Connecticut, here are the "new infection numbers" for the last several days:
4/20   1853
4/21   545
4/22   2109
4/23   631
4/24   821
4/25   661

My county (Fairfield) has 10,227 infections total.
That's more than a bunch of midwest states combined -- in one county.
My town (not a huge city) has 1,300 cases. That's more than some states, in one town.

What works in South Dakota, AIN'T gonna work here.
Not yet.
No argument that the needs are different in different places. One size does not fit all.
How God must weep at humans' folly! Stand fast! God knows what he is doing!
Seventeen Techniques for Truth Suppression

Of all tyrannies, a tyranny sincerely exercised for the good of its victims may be the most oppressive. It would be better to live under robber barons than under omnipotent moral busybodies. The robber baron's cruelty may sometimes sleep, his cupidity may at some point be satiated; but those who torment us for our own good will torment us without end for they do so with the approval of their own conscience.

C S Lewis

Offline jmyrlefuller

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Whoa....North Dakota IS tracking recoveries. There are 310 recovered as of today.
Here is the Dept of Health website.
https://www.health.nd.gov/diseases-conditions/coronavirus/north-dakota-coronavirus-cases
North Dakota had its skewing event in Grand Forks County at the Wind turbine plant, but generally, the number of cases is highest in Cass County (Fargo, and by far the most long term care facilities) and Burleigh county (Bismarck) Those three counties also contain the three largest cities in the State.

Living here these past 42 years, I have watched this closely as it developed from the first case in the State in Ward County. Despite being first on the board, that gentleman stayed home and self-quarantined. I pray he is well. The county, however did not continue on to have the most cases, despite having the 4th largest city in the state, and an AFB, still well behind the six counties with more cases.
If you do a mental overlay of the highway map with the dept of health map (see link above) showing cases by county, the following trend applies.  Cases generally are greatest along main highway corridors, I-94, US2, and I-29, HWY83, and US85.
For the most part the highest number of cases are in counties with the largest cities. Dickinson, in Stark County, is the last large town on the way to Billings, with the exception of Miles City, MT.  Not just destinations, these are the places people get a bite to eat, a room for the night, fill up the gas tank.
Sorry. To clarify: North Dakota isn't tracking recoveries county-by-county, the way South Dakota has listed on their site. That allows someone to tell at first glance whether the cases listed on a county map are still active or not. I did see ND publishes a statewide recovery number. (Which is almost the opposite of how it works in New York, which has no statewide number but individual counties do track recoveries if and when they can, though it's not consistent.) Apologies for the confusion.

Your statement about highways tends to have some truth to it. Here in my county, the highest concentration of cases has been in the northeast corner. Two substantial highways to Buffalo, which is a moderate COVID hotspot (nowhere near as bad as NYC but worse than some other comparable cities like Cleveland) where several of our COVID+ residents have received their infection, run through that corner. What I suspect is that people who live along those corridors but commute to the cities for work are picking it up and bringing it home with them.
« Last Edit: April 25, 2020, 11:28:59 pm by jmyrlefuller »
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Offline Smokin Joe

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Sorry. To clarify: North Dakota isn't tracking recoveries county-by-county, the way South Dakota has listed on their site. That allows someone to tell at first glance whether the cases listed on a county map are still active or not. I did see ND publishes a statewide recovery number. (Which is almost the opposite of how it works in New York, which has no statewide number but individual counties do track recoveries if and when they can, though it's not consistent.) Apologies for the confusion.

Your statement about highways tends to have some truth to it. Here in my county, the highest concentration of cases has been in the northeast corner. Two substantial highways to Buffalo, which is a moderate COVID hotspot (nowhere near as bad as NYC but worse than some other comparable cities like Cleveland) where several of our COVID+ residents have received their infection, run through that corner. What I suspect is that people who live along those corridors but commute to the cities for work are picking it up and bringing it home with them.
You may be right about the vector. In ND, biggest cities also equal most university activity, so that could be a factor, too. The number of cases really ramped up in mid April.
How God must weep at humans' folly! Stand fast! God knows what he is doing!
Seventeen Techniques for Truth Suppression

Of all tyrannies, a tyranny sincerely exercised for the good of its victims may be the most oppressive. It would be better to live under robber barons than under omnipotent moral busybodies. The robber baron's cruelty may sometimes sleep, his cupidity may at some point be satiated; but those who torment us for our own good will torment us without end for they do so with the approval of their own conscience.

C S Lewis

Offline LegalAmerican

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So no one is dying from heart attacks, strokes, cancer, diabetes, renal disease, etc.  ONLY COVID 19?  Some nurse said, doctors are being told to put on death certificates, that people died from COVID-19. 

Offline Smokin Joe

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So no one is dying from heart attacks, strokes, cancer, diabetes, renal disease, etc.  ONLY COVID 19?  Some nurse said, doctors are being told to put on death certificates, that people died from COVID-19.
You have to read the Obits to get the info on the people who didn't die of COVID-19.

While they greatly outnumber the people who died of COVID-19, they won't come up on a search engine. (2020 data will be hard to get, anyway, usually the stats lag 1-2 years behind)
How God must weep at humans' folly! Stand fast! God knows what he is doing!
Seventeen Techniques for Truth Suppression

Of all tyrannies, a tyranny sincerely exercised for the good of its victims may be the most oppressive. It would be better to live under robber barons than under omnipotent moral busybodies. The robber baron's cruelty may sometimes sleep, his cupidity may at some point be satiated; but those who torment us for our own good will torment us without end for they do so with the approval of their own conscience.

C S Lewis