Author Topic: Israeli Professor Shows Virus Follows Fixed Pattern  (Read 707 times)

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Offline bilo

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Israeli Professor Shows Virus Follows Fixed Pattern
« on: April 15, 2020, 02:57:24 pm »
Professor Yitzhak Ben Israel of Tel Aviv University, who also serves on the research and development advisory board for Teva Pharmaceutical Industries, plotted the rates of new coronavirus infections of the U.S., U.K., Sweden, Italy, Israel, Switzerland, France, Germany, and Spain. The numbers told a shocking story: irrespective of whether the country quarantined like Israel, or went about business as usual like Sweden, coronavirus peaked and subsided in the exact same way. In the exact, same, way. His graphs show that all countries experienced seemingly identical coronavirus infection patterns, with the number of infected peaking in the sixth week and rapidly subsiding by the eighth week.
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The Wuhan Virus follows its own pattern, he told Mako, an Israeli news agency. It is a fixed pattern that is not dependent on freedom or quarantine. “There is a decline in the number of infections even [in countries] without closures, and it is similar to the countries with closures,” he wrote in his paper.


...President Trump urged a strong coronavirus response after consulting with Dr. Fauci and his team, who relied on a British model predicting 2.2 million deaths in the United States and 500,000 deaths in the U.K. But that model was developed by Professor Neil Ferguson, who had a history of wildly overestimating death rates through his prediction models. Professor Ferguson was not known for his reliability, and his 2001 disease model was criticized as “not fit for purpose” after it predicted that up to 150,000 people could die in the U.K. from mad cow disease (177 deaths to date). Ferguson’s U.K. coronavirus deaths prediction is now down to 20,000 people, 4% of the original prediction.

https://townhall.com/columnists/marinamedvin/2020/04/15/israeli-professor-shows-virus-follows-fixed-pattern-n2566915
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Offline bilo

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Re: Israeli Professor Shows Virus Follows Fixed Pattern
« Reply #1 on: April 15, 2020, 03:06:04 pm »
Professor Yitzhak Ben Israel concludes in his analysis summary paper that the data from the past 50 days indicates that the closure policies of the quarantine countries can be replaced by more moderate social distancing policies. The numbers simply do not support quarantine or economic closure.

I'm glad Trump and some governors are starting to move the ball on getting the economy going again. The shame of it is because people buy into mass hysteria so easily and the "experts" are easily manipulated by models a lot of peoples lives have been destroyed. Hopefully some good will come out of this, such as getting our medical supplies and drug manufacturers out of China.

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Offline DB

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Re: Israeli Professor Shows Virus Follows Fixed Pattern
« Reply #2 on: April 15, 2020, 03:30:15 pm »
The test of this will be if there's a second wave or not.

Another thing, who will be willing to go anywhere where there are crowds of thousands anytime soon?

That covers virtually all sporting events, concerts and amusement parks.

Offline bilo

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Re: Israeli Professor Shows Virus Follows Fixed Pattern
« Reply #3 on: April 15, 2020, 05:05:21 pm »
The test of this will be if there's a second wave or not.

Another thing, who will be willing to go anywhere where there are crowds of thousands anytime soon?

That covers virtually all sporting events, concerts and amusement parks.

I have no problem being in a crowd. I'm not obese, don't have diabetes, hypertension, asthma, although I am in my 60's.
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Re: Israeli Professor Shows Virus Follows Fixed Pattern
« Reply #4 on: April 15, 2020, 07:17:37 pm »
The test of this will be if there's a second wave or not.

Another thing, who will be willing to go anywhere where there are crowds of thousands anytime soon?

That covers virtually all sporting events, concerts and amusement parks.
When the virus drops to virtually zero in a given area, the locals will congregate again. Traveling and tourism will probably take longer to recover.
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Online libertybele

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Re: Israeli Professor Shows Virus Follows Fixed Pattern
« Reply #5 on: April 15, 2020, 07:35:34 pm »
Professor Yitzhak Ben Israel concludes in his analysis summary paper that the data from the past 50 days indicates that the closure policies of the quarantine countries can be replaced by more moderate social distancing policies. The numbers simply do not support quarantine or economic closure.

I'm glad Trump and some governors are starting to move the ball on getting the economy going again. The shame of it is because people buy into mass hysteria so easily and the "experts" are easily manipulated by models a lot of peoples lives have been destroyed. Hopefully some good will come out of this, such as getting our medical supplies and drug manufacturers out of China.

There needs to be huge tax breaks and incentives to get U.S. companies out of China; Smithfield, Hunts, Campbell's Soup, Kraft, GE, etc., the number of companies is massive.
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Offline Idiot

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Re: Israeli Professor Shows Virus Follows Fixed Pattern
« Reply #6 on: April 15, 2020, 08:20:54 pm »
They can open up all they want, I just have no intention of....shaking hands, flying commercially, going in a grocery store or any large store, for a LONG, LONG, time.  I'll also be keeping my social distance and wearing a mask for a long time as well.  This virus can still kill...……..

Offline bilo

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Re: Israeli Professor Shows Virus Follows Fixed Pattern
« Reply #7 on: April 15, 2020, 09:26:02 pm »
There needs to be huge tax breaks and incentives to get U.S. companies out of China; Smithfield, Hunts, Campbell's Soup, Kraft, GE, etc., the number of companies is massive.

I agree. Kudlow proposed paying their moving costs, which sounds okay to me.
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Offline bilo

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Re: Israeli Professor Shows Virus Follows Fixed Pattern
« Reply #8 on: April 15, 2020, 09:28:05 pm »
They can open up all they want, I just have no intention of....shaking hands, flying commercially, going in a grocery store or any large store, for a LONG, LONG, time.  I'll also be keeping my social distance and wearing a mask for a long time as well.  This virus can still kill...……..

And all this is your right.

People don't have to congregate if they don't want to, but those that aren't as concerned should be able to and businesses should be allowed to open up.
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Offline DB

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Re: Israeli Professor Shows Virus Follows Fixed Pattern
« Reply #9 on: April 15, 2020, 09:41:35 pm »
I agree. Kudlow proposed paying their moving costs, which sounds okay to me.

I have mixed feelings about that. The large companies can afford to move themselves out of China. It was the large companies that led the way into China in the first place. When they did that the smaller ones were forced to follow to remain competitive.

I'd rather penalize the large companies for remaining there while helping the smaller ones out of there.

Offline bilo

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Re: Israeli Professor Shows Virus Follows Fixed Pattern
« Reply #10 on: April 15, 2020, 11:35:01 pm »
I have mixed feelings about that. The large companies can afford to move themselves out of China. It was the large companies that led the way into China in the first place. When they did that the smaller ones were forced to follow to remain competitive.

I'd rather penalize the large companies for remaining there while helping the smaller ones out of there.

It might be nice, but being pragmatic I want as many companies out of there as possible. Maybe the way to do it is to demand that any contracts with Govt require the company to be located in and produce the product in the USA. If that's too harsh let them relocate to the USA, Mexico and Canada.
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Online Smokin Joe

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Re: Israeli Professor Shows Virus Follows Fixed Pattern
« Reply #11 on: April 16, 2020, 12:10:47 am »
There needs to be huge tax breaks and incentives to get U.S. companies out of China; Smithfield, Hunts, Campbell's Soup, Kraft, GE, etc., the number of companies is massive.
The Chinese BOUGHT Smithfield, iirc.
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Re: Israeli Professor Shows Virus Follows Fixed Pattern
« Reply #12 on: April 16, 2020, 12:17:47 am »
They can open up all they want, I just have no intention of....shaking hands, flying commercially, going in a grocery store or any large store, for a LONG, LONG, time.  I'll also be keeping my social distance and wearing a mask for a long time as well.  This virus can still kill...……..
Yes, it can, and if you are one of those at risk, such measures are prudent.
 
Hold out for a vaccine, if you want to, I am sure one will be along eventually.
That choice is and should be yours.

One of the reasons I have been so against emergency measures steeped in panic is that unnecessary protocols will be mandated as a one size fits all requirement, which could be more damaging in other ways overall.  Just the run on N-95 masks alone has placed First Responders at risk. The look at the toilet paper situation... :shrug:

But it should be up to the individual to assess their risk and take the appropriate measures to stay as safe as possible.
--hopefully, without the nanny state trashing our rights to force everyone to do so.
How God must weep at humans' folly! Stand fast! God knows what he is doing!
Seventeen Techniques for Truth Suppression

Of all tyrannies, a tyranny sincerely exercised for the good of its victims may be the most oppressive. It would be better to live under robber barons than under omnipotent moral busybodies. The robber baron's cruelty may sometimes sleep, his cupidity may at some point be satiated; but those who torment us for our own good will torment us without end for they do so with the approval of their own conscience.

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Re: Israeli Professor Shows Virus Follows Fixed Pattern
« Reply #13 on: April 16, 2020, 12:21:32 am »
There needs to be huge tax breaks and incentives to get U.S. companies out of China; Smithfield, Hunts, Campbell's Soup, Kraft, GE, etc., the number of companies is massive.
Are they there as divisions of the parent company, or is their main production there for here?

I don't gig companies like McDonalds and Coca-Cola and Caterpillar for doing business worldwide, but if they are going to do business here, make it here, from our stuff.

Frankly, we won't have our own industry until we decide what levels of surface disturbance and emissions realistically can be tolerated to return mining, smelting, and self sufficiency to our manufacturing chain.
How God must weep at humans' folly! Stand fast! God knows what he is doing!
Seventeen Techniques for Truth Suppression

Of all tyrannies, a tyranny sincerely exercised for the good of its victims may be the most oppressive. It would be better to live under robber barons than under omnipotent moral busybodies. The robber baron's cruelty may sometimes sleep, his cupidity may at some point be satiated; but those who torment us for our own good will torment us without end for they do so with the approval of their own conscience.

C S Lewis

Offline Hoodat

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Re: Israeli Professor Shows Virus Follows Fixed Pattern
« Reply #14 on: April 16, 2020, 01:01:52 am »
Quote
The Wuhan Virus follows its own pattern, he told Mako, an Israeli news agency. It is a fixed pattern that is not dependent on freedom or quarantine. “There is a decline in the number of infections even [in countries] without closures, and it is similar to the countries with closures,” he wrote in his paper.

A study out of Germany concludes the same thing.  The destruction of our economy has been for naught.
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Offline Idiot

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Re: Israeli Professor Shows Virus Follows Fixed Pattern
« Reply #15 on: April 16, 2020, 01:49:03 am »
Yes, it can, and if you are one of those at risk, such measures are prudent.
 
Hold out for a vaccine, if you want to, I am sure one will be along eventually.
That choice is and should be yours.

One of the reasons I have been so against emergency measures steeped in panic is that unnecessary protocols will be mandated as a one size fits all requirement, which could be more damaging in other ways overall.  Just the run on N-95 masks alone has placed First Responders at risk. The look at the toilet paper situation... :shrug:

But it should be up to the individual to assess their risk and take the appropriate measures to stay as safe as possible.
--hopefully, without the nanny state trashing our rights to force everyone to do so.
It's likely going to turn out that you were correct.

Offline dancer

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Re: Israeli Professor Shows Virus Follows Fixed Pattern
« Reply #16 on: April 17, 2020, 10:14:52 am »
There needs to be huge tax breaks and incentives to get U.S. companies out of China; Smithfield, Hunts, Campbell's Soup, Kraft, GE, etc., the number of companies is massive.

China owns Smithfield.  Literally.

[url=https://www.pbs.org/newshour/show/whos-behind-chinese-takeover-worlds-biggest-pork-producer]https://www.pbs.org/newshour/show/whos-behind-chinese-takeover-worlds-biggest-pork-producer[/url]

Online Smokin Joe

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How God must weep at humans' folly! Stand fast! God knows what he is doing!
Seventeen Techniques for Truth Suppression

Of all tyrannies, a tyranny sincerely exercised for the good of its victims may be the most oppressive. It would be better to live under robber barons than under omnipotent moral busybodies. The robber baron's cruelty may sometimes sleep, his cupidity may at some point be satiated; but those who torment us for our own good will torment us without end for they do so with the approval of their own conscience.

C S Lewis

Offline bilo

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Re: Israeli Professor Shows Virus Follows Fixed Pattern
« Reply #18 on: April 17, 2020, 06:23:36 pm »
A study out of Germany concludes the same thing.  The destruction of our economy has been for naught.

Good to know more than one study found there is a natural life cycle to the virus and it's ability to cause death. The only reason to shut down everything was the concern that hospitals would be overwhelmed and we didn't have enough ventilators. Now that we know that's not a problem we should get back to work.
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Offline Hoodat

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Re: Israeli Professor Shows Virus Follows Fixed Pattern
« Reply #19 on: April 17, 2020, 06:29:25 pm »
The only reason to shut down everything was the concern that hospitals would be overwhelmed and we didn't have enough ventilators.

The reason to shut down everything is to delay the inevitable spread of the virus so that vaccine profits can be maximized once one is developed.
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"The [U.S.] Constitution is a limitation on the government, not on private individuals ... it does not prescribe the conduct of private individuals, only the conduct of the government ... it is not a charter for government power, but a charter of the citizen's protection against the government."     -Ayn Rand-

Offline Gefn

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Re: Israeli Professor Shows Virus Follows Fixed Pattern
« Reply #20 on: April 17, 2020, 06:37:45 pm »
I’m looking forward to simple things again. Being able to visit and hug my mom.

I really wannna hug my mom.
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Offline jafo2010

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Re: Israeli Professor Shows Virus Follows Fixed Pattern
« Reply #21 on: April 17, 2020, 06:43:26 pm »
Would be nice if the government listened to someone other than these idiot medical folks that could not put a model with any level of accuracy if their life depended on it together.  Not surprised in the least that the Israeli and German studies indicate what they do.

The Dems are singing the tune that Trump did not move soon enough, and now this.  Trump cannot do anything right according to these people and their marketing arm the MSM.

I SAY RESTART THE COUNTRY FULLY WITH THE EXCEPTION OF HOT ZONES.  THIS PHASED APPROACH WILL KEEP THE COUNTRY SHUTDOWN FOR TWO MORE MONTHS.  IDIOTIC IS THE ONLY WORD COMING TO MIND.

I have a different model.  Restart states or counties fully with little to no infection, no phased in nonsense.  END LISTENING TO THESE IDIOT DOCTORS NOW PLEASE!!!  For hot spots, use your phased model.

Offline truth_seeker

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Re: Israeli Professor Shows Virus Follows Fixed Pattern
« Reply #22 on: April 17, 2020, 07:17:01 pm »
There needs to be huge tax breaks and incentives to get U.S. companies out of China; Smithfield, Hunts, Campbell's Soup, Kraft, GE, etc., the number of companies is massive.

A few days ago, stories indicated the Japanese government, was paying companies to get out of China.

I look forward to American brands, promoting their exits from China.

Anything that can be done in China, can be done in the US, other places in Asia, places in the America's hemisphere.

Clothing from India, Panama, Puerto  Rico, Brazil, South Africa, etc. Just not China.


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Online Smokin Joe

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Re: Israeli Professor Shows Virus Follows Fixed Pattern
« Reply #23 on: April 17, 2020, 11:08:13 pm »
A few days ago, stories indicated the Japanese government, was paying companies to get out of China.

I look forward to American brands, promoting their exits from China.

Anything that can be done in China, can be done in the US, other places in Asia, places in the America's hemisphere.

Clothing from India, Panama, Puerto  Rico, Brazil, South Africa, etc. Just not China.
Yeah, the next batch of illegals San Fran Nan wants to import are going to need jobs, too.
How God must weep at humans' folly! Stand fast! God knows what he is doing!
Seventeen Techniques for Truth Suppression

Of all tyrannies, a tyranny sincerely exercised for the good of its victims may be the most oppressive. It would be better to live under robber barons than under omnipotent moral busybodies. The robber baron's cruelty may sometimes sleep, his cupidity may at some point be satiated; but those who torment us for our own good will torment us without end for they do so with the approval of their own conscience.

C S Lewis